Archive for May, 2004

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HARRY POTTER UPDATE

May 27, 2004

I knew I wasn’t alone when I came into the department earlier this week and saw that someone (I know who!) labeled a storage closet near the men’s room the “Chamber of Secrets” …

Anyway, Gary Oldman will be on NBC’s Today Show on Monday 31 May. I have two friends who say that they can’t see Gary Oldman as Sirius Black because he’s not skinny enough, but I don’t know how he could get skinnier! I can’t wait to see Gary Oldman in this role.

Our temporary apartment is two blocks from a large cinema, one that I hope will have POA on the 4th.

And for those of you who have actually bothered to see Troy, Brendan Gleeson, who played Menelaus, will be Mad-Eye Moody in Goblet of Fire.

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LIVING PARALLEL LIVES

May 27, 2004

So we are in a temporary, furnished apartment while we have some serious work done on the house. We decided to take this as an opportunity to live in a neighborhood in which we wouldn’t otherwise live: Old Town. One of the interesting architectural features of the neighborhood is the number of old worker’s cottages (all of which have been expanded and spruceified, of course) from the period just after the 1871 fire. It’s a quaint yet very urban neighborhood, with leafy streets, good restaurants, and good proximity to Lincoln Park and the lake.

Last night we did what we considered to be our rite of passage into Old Town: we had a ribs dinner at the Twin Anchors pub. If you are ever visiting Chicago, you should eat there if you are a ribs connoisseur. The sauce is slightly sweet, a little vinegary, but definitely tomato-based with a touch of cloves and cinnamon. Yum-dilly-icious! And the history and atmosphere of the place is great — it’s an old Prohibition-era speakeasy, as is my favorite bar (although here’s a better picture of the exterior).

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JOYS OF HOMEOWNERSHIP: THE BIG BOX STORE

May 27, 2004

One thing about owning a 1929 house with a yard, as opposed to a 1999 new construction condo, is that you get quite familiar with the large box home retailers. We have lots of Home Depots around us and a Lowe’s about a 20-minute drive into a suburb. We have new homeowner 10% off coupons for each. And we’ll certainly be using them!

I was in a Home Depot Wednesday morning around 8:30, and in addition to the fascinating quantity and variety of goods (amazing even in comparison to grocery stores, Alex (where does he find a Wegman’s in northern Virginia?) and Don!), it’s a veritable cornucopia of people watching. Bleary looking new homeowners like me rubbing shoulders with contractors and builders procuring supplies for their crews, and with gardeners out in the nursery preparing their spring beds now that spring has come to Chicago.

Which made me enjoy all the more walking out with frou-frou paint chips and tile brochures, high-tech latex gardening gloves, a “Grass Hog!” weed whacker, and a really cool palm sander.

I must be a homeowner now; I own a weed whacker and a power tool that comes in a nifty case with a cool logo on it!

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JOYS OF HOMEOWNERSHIP: ENTREPRENEURSHIP

May 27, 2004

So the first thing I do on Wednesday morning when we start working on the house was to rake the forlorn front lawn to free it of cigarette butts, old toys, hunks of concrete, etc. My husband was taking a whack at the two-foot tall weeds in the backyard with a weed whacker, which I was going to do in the front after he finished.

The second was to pull up the old, brown and burnt orange, 1970s carpeting from the enclosed sunporch on the front of the house. Very satisfying.

I’m out there scrubbing down the interior in preparation for sanding and painting, and I see a lawn service pull up to mow the grass of the house next door. So I go out and offer them $20 to do our front lawn, knowing full well that the market rate for front and back is $20 (but hey, I was operating in the spot market, and I really really really wanted not to have to do it myself).

So he says OK, does the major passes with the mower, and then before getting out the edger/weed whacker gets on his cell phone. Then he proceeds to edge our forlorn little lawn that was probably last edged when the earth was cooling, and to use the leaf blower to clean up not just the mess he created, but the accumulated stuff in the corners of our front porch and steps!

A couple of minutes later this other guy drives up and comes up to my door. It’s the owner of the lawn company — the crew leader called him on his cell phone to come give me the marketing pitch, after the crew leader had done a really good job on my pitiful excuse for a lawn.

That’s how to get business.

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THE JOYS OF HOMEOWNERSHIP: TRANSACTION COSTS

May 27, 2004

There is nothing like a house closing to reinforce the point that transaction costs are real, and large. I am astounded at the layers and complexities of the transaction costs in real estate transactions. Even our lawyer, who has a lovely and well-honed sardonic sense of humor, looked at some of the papers we had to sign and claimed that he didn’t see any reason why these documents were material any more, but that we had to sign them anyway.

By law we have to get your consent for this; by law we have to inform you of that. And even though a lot of what has to be done could be done in advance, and electronically, we are still locked in to this ritual of getting 6-8 very busy people together in a room at a title company, with the mortgage underwriters doing their last minute nannying that could have been done further in advance, twiddling their thumbs and watching the unfolding of transaction costs in front of their glazed eyes.

I think it’s a testimony to how badly people want to own property that we are all willing to put up with the perpetuation of the layers of bureaucracy, inefficiency, and rent seeking. Or perhaps it’s an Olsonian concentration of benefits and diffusion of costs story — we buyers and sellers do this so infrequently that our costs are diffuse, while the other required parties in the transaction milk it.

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MOVING DAY

May 23, 2004

Monday’s closing day and moving day, so I’ll be a wee bit distracted for the immediate future. Cross your fingers!

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ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT

May 21, 2004

I am flying back from Aspen today, hopefully early enough to avoid O’Hare ground holds. I wrote this a couple of weeks ago, but decided to wait until my anger subsided to post it, to give me time to edit out some of the more imprudent statements.

Another Friday Night

Another Friday night, another ground hold trying to fly home to O’Hare. This time we sat on the ground in Austin, Texas for an hour and a half. The pilot was really frank; he said that we were two minutes from liftoff and everything was fine, and then they said they would hold us for an hour and 20 minutes. I had called home earlier so I knew that there was no weather/radar reason, and other passengers around me calling people corroborated that information. The pilot later said over the speaker that he knew of no weather events going into O’Hare.

That means it was an air traffic control hold. It’s bad enough for me to get home to my family an hour and a half late, but the worst thing is that I’m surrounded by many fellow passengers who were all supposed to be making connections through O’Hare to someplace else. Now we won’t arrive in O’Hare until after 10, well after many of the last flights have departed. They’ll be stranded and have to spend the night in O’Hare. That is, of course, unless there are other planes full of people whose lives and priorities have been disregarded as much as ours have.

The FAA’s disregard of its constituents is unconscionable and utterly reprehensible. I cannot believe, with all of the soul searching and introspection that federal officials are supposed to have been doing in the past two and a half years, that the FAA and the Department of Transportation can still get away with this appalling indifference to the harms that their bureaucratic policies impose on so many people. The reply I would expect from them, that we may be home late or tomorrow but at least we get home all in one piece, is a pathetic excuse for an unwillingness to engage in some forward-looking thinking and openness to new (or not so new) ideas.

The ability of the FAA to fulfill its mission of securing the safety and reliability of air travel has dwindled into oblivion, largely due to the blinders that its slavish attention to the appearance of “safety” has cemented on its collective eyes. It continues to apply a top-down, bureaucratic approach to the allocation and capacity utilization of a resource that is pretty scarce on Friday evenings: air space. And although many people have made serious, concrete proposals for ways to price that air space when it’s scarce, the turgid movement of the tentacles that are the FAA policy process has kept those discussions going for close to two decades. Despite all these proposals, many highly detailed and vetted during the FAA’s long period of inactivity on the matter, the FAA has not budged from policies cooked up thirty years ago in a fully regulated market.

The really sublime irony is that this morning when I flew to Austin, I was preparing for an upcoming speaking engagement in which I am going to do a case study on airline deregulation in the 1970s. In preparation I was rereading a lot of literature on the subject, including Severin Borenstein’s useful 1992 JEP article. He noted that at the time the FAA was entertaining proposals for the separation of the commercial air traffic function (which could be privatized or “corporatized”) from the regulatory airplane safety function, and that most observers anticipated that such a split would not be long forthcoming. It’s been 12 years since he wrote that, and still we have regulatory control of a viably commercial function and regulatory control of a safety function, jumbled together.

Furthermore, the state of air traffic technology has not improved since he wrote those words. One of the inexorable changes that we have seen in modern human history is that technology enables us to use scarce resources more efficiently. The FAA has failed to deliver that value to us in airspace. Indeed, the stunning irony is that much of the consumer benefit that airline deregulation created was through the airlines doing a better job of capacity utilization, and passing those savings on to consumers through the competitive market process. In the air traffic control part of the air travel system, the FAA has failed, and failed miserably, to create anything remotely resembling the kind of value that we created in the deregulation of airlines.

They could contribute to that value creation. First, commercialize the air traffic control function. I’d sell off shares in it myself, but at least contract it out. A private contractor could, as part of the contract, subcontract with a set of equipment providers to roll in a technology upgrade involving GPS, allowing planes to see each other and know their coordinates in real time, as well as optimizing the use of the airspace to the extent consistent with safety. The air traffic control price vector, which would include combinatorial auctions for well-defined property rights in takeoff-landing slot pairs at the 6 airports that have them, would be transparent and would be charged to the airlines. It should reflect congestion charges. Heck, if we can do locational marginal pricing in electricity, air traffic control pricing is a piece of cake!

What will it take to get meaningful change in air traffic control management? Should I start going around to my fellow passengers and ask for their contact information so we can file a lawsuit against the FAA for pain and suffering? Should we send Norm Mineta a bill? Or are the flight scheduling problems we suffer through their perverse idea of rent seeking? I suspect that despite the years of platitudes, the FAA has lost all appreciation for the daily accretion of harms that we suffer at their hands. They could use some rightsizing and be left to oversee a competitive, private market in flight scheduling.

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ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT

May 21, 2004

I am flying back from Aspen today, hopefully early enough to avoid O’Hare ground holds. I wrote this a couple of weeks ago, but decided to wait until my anger subsided to post it, to give me time to edit out some of the more imprudent statements.

Another Friday Night

Another Friday night, another ground hold trying to fly home to O’Hare. This time we sat on the ground in Austin, Texas for an hour and a half. The pilot was really frank; he said that we were two minutes from liftoff and everything was fine, and then they said they would hold us for an hour and 20 minutes. I had called home earlier so I knew that there was no weather/radar reason, and other passengers around me calling people corroborated that information. The pilot later said over the speaker that he knew of no weather events going into O’Hare.

That means it was an air traffic control hold. It’s bad enough for me to get home to my family an hour and a half late, but the worst thing is that I’m surrounded by many fellow passengers who were all supposed to be making connections through O’Hare to someplace else. Now we won’t arrive in O’Hare until after 10, well after many of the last flights have departed. They’ll be stranded and have to spend the night in O’Hare. That is, of course, unless there are other planes full of people whose lives and priorities have been disregarded as much as ours have.

The FAA’s disregard of its constituents is unconscionable and utterly reprehensible. I cannot believe, with all of the soul searching and introspection that federal officials are supposed to have been doing in the past two and a half years, that the FAA and the Department of Transportation can still get away with this appalling indifference to the harms that their bureaucratic policies impose on so many people. The reply I would expect from them, that we may be home late or tomorrow but at least we get home all in one piece, is a pathetic excuse for an unwillingness to engage in some forward-looking thinking and openness to new (or not so new) ideas.

The ability of the FAA to fulfill its mission of securing the safety and reliability of air travel has dwindled into oblivion, largely due to the blinders that its slavish attention to the appearance of “safety” has cemented on its collective eyes. It continues to apply a top-down, bureaucratic approach to the allocation and capacity utilization of a resource that is pretty scarce on Friday evenings: air space. And although many people have made serious, concrete proposals for ways to price that air space when it’s scarce, the turgid movement of the tentacles that are the FAA policy process has kept those discussions going for close to two decades. Despite all these proposals, many highly detailed and vetted during the FAA’s long period of inactivity on the matter, the FAA has not budged from policies cooked up thirty years ago in a fully regulated market.

The really sublime irony is that this morning when I flew to Austin, I was preparing for an upcoming speaking engagement in which I am going to do a case study on airline deregulation in the 1970s. In preparation I was rereading a lot of literature on the subject, including Severin Borenstein’s useful 1992 JEP article. He noted that at the time the FAA was entertaining proposals for the separation of the commercial air traffic function (which could be privatized or “corporatized”) from the regulatory airplane safety function, and that most observers anticipated that such a split would not be long forthcoming. It’s been 12 years since he wrote that, and still we have regulatory control of a viably commercial function and regulatory control of a safety function, jumbled together.

Furthermore, the state of air traffic technology has not improved since he wrote those words. One of the inexorable changes that we have seen in modern human history is that technology enables us to use scarce resources more efficiently. The FAA has failed to deliver that value to us in airspace. Indeed, the stunning irony is that much of the consumer benefit that airline deregulation created was through the airlines doing a better job of capacity utilization, and passing those savings on to consumers through the competitive market process. In the air traffic control part of the air travel system, the FAA has failed, and failed miserably, to create anything remotely resembling the kind of value that we created in the deregulation of airlines.

They could contribute to that value creation. First, commercialize the air traffic control function. I’d sell off shares in it myself, but at least contract it out. A private contractor could, as part of the contract, subcontract with a set of equipment providers to roll in a technology upgrade involving GPS, allowing planes to see each other and know their coordinates in real time, as well as optimizing the use of the airspace to the extent consistent with safety. The air traffic control price vector, which would include combinatorial auctions for well-defined property rights in takeoff-landing slot pairs at the 6 airports that have them, would be transparent and would be charged to the airlines. It should reflect congestion charges. Heck, if we can do locational marginal pricing in electricity, air traffic control pricing is a piece of cake!

What will it take to get meaningful change in air traffic control management? Should I start going around to my fellow passengers and ask for their contact information so we can file a lawsuit against the FAA for pain and suffering? Should we send Norm Mineta a bill? Or are the flight scheduling problems we suffer through their perverse idea of rent seeking? I suspect that despite the years of platitudes, the FAA has lost all appreciation for the daily accretion of harms that we suffer at their hands. They could use some rightsizing and be left to oversee a competitive, private market in flight scheduling.

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THE PERENNIAL GALE OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

May 19, 2004

One of the readings for today at the PFF IRLE workshop is Chapters 6-8 of the “Can Capitalism Survive?” section of Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. I think this is one of the most important economic works ever written, notwithstanding the fact that much of Schumpeter’s doom and gloom fear for the future of capitalism has been falsified by events since his writing the book in 1942. Schumpeter was arguing in the context of two broad strands of thought in the 1930s and 1940s that are not as relevant today: socialism, and scientific management.

Still, these three chapters are utterly foundational to the understanding of how real, dynamic economics work, thrive, grow and change. Note the language I’ve used there: it’s evolutionary and focuses on the complex dynamics of economic systems. And that’s part of what is still remarkably relevant about Schumpeter, yet has remained outside of the mainstream neoclassical economics paradigm in many ways. On p. 82 he says

The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process. … Capitalism, then, is by its nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is but never can be stationary.

These three chapters lay out Schumpeter’s famous “perennial gale of creative destruction” argument:

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new formes of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. …

[t]he … process of industrial mutation … incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. It is what capitalism consists in and what every capitalist concern has got to live in.

Typically we think of competition in terms of number of sellers, and of “perfect competition” as the benchmark case in which price=short-run marginal cost and all consumers pay that price. Problem with that case is that it only exists on the blackboard. It’s also a very static snapshot; for example, if all consumers pay only short-run marginal cost, how do producers invest to expand their business?

Schumpeter describes the oversimplification of the static efficiency P=MC expectations of perfect competition, and argues that competition in reality is a lot more organic and dynamic:

But in capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture, it is not that kind of competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology, the new source of supply, the new type of organization … — competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.

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QUELLE SURPRISE

May 19, 2004

The French government finally acknowledges that the mandatory 35-hour work week is a financial disaster. Nor has it achieved its purported objective, the reduction of the unemployment rate in France.

Thanks to Glenn Reynolds for the link to the article.

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