Archive for August 10th, 2005

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NHL BROADCAST DEAL: OLN?

August 10, 2005

Lynne Kiesling

There’s a rumor circulating that Comcast and the National Hockey League are on the verge of a broadcast agreement. The purported deal would involve two games per week on OLN. It’s not clear what other games would be allowed to be televised, although there is another outstanding agreement with NBC for some games late in the season.

One reason this OLN strategy might make sense for Comcast/OLN is the substitute argument that is being floated by several folks today: with Lance Armstrong retiring from the Tour de France, OLN can no longer be the “Only Lance Network” and the channel will have to find other content. If this argument holds, and more hockey fans subscribe than cycling fans unsubscribe, then revenues increase.

Another reason this strategy could be attractive is what I think of as the portfolio strategy. From a US audience perspective, both cycling and hockey are niche sports (oddly, they are two of my three favorite sports, with soccer being the other … OK, so I’m not representative!). Hockey plus cycling offers a portfolio that gives each fan sufficient coverage during their respective seasons that they are willing to keep the subscription even during the off-season. Add to that the probability that there are more fans like me, who are both cycling and hockey fans, then their subscriptions increase and, hopefully, by more than they have to pay for the broadcast rights.

But only two games per week … seems slim to me. Is it worth it to me to subscribe for only two games per week? Why isn’t the NHL offering more? Have they done market research to determine if there’s sufficient value in offering more?

I’d also like it if they got rights to women’s soccer, US and European. But that might be too small a niche!

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“LE PARFAIT EST L’ENNEMI DU BIEN” IN TECHNOLOGY CHOICE

August 10, 2005

Lynne Kiesling

Last week Rob at Peak Oil Optimist commented on an environmental group’s position on the construction of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant in the Pacific Northwest. They contend that the technology is just not needed because of other available means of renewable power and demand reduction. Rob correctly and nicely points out that their position, and their unwillingness to recognize and embrace technologies that make tradeoffs that are valuable to some people and advance the ball down the field, will increasingly make them and their voices irrelevant:

If there were ever a way to make sure that the environmentalist movement were cancelled out — vaporized, removed from the table at any serious political consideration — here it is. There’s never any “better”, always their “best” and only utopian answer. Given the constant braying against wind, nuclear, and just about everything except solar, one wonders just how much longer they’ll have any credibility at all.

I would add further that the type of argument in which one claims that a technology is “simply not necessary” reflects a very top-down, control-and-manage mindset. It ignores the very real, very diverse, very heterogeneous sets of preferences and circumstances facing energy consumers and producers, many of whom may find IGCC-generated power a step in the right direction that they are willing to take. Incrementalism is how we’re going to make this happen.

The French in the title is because I recently learned that the phrase “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good” derives from the above quote from Voltaire.

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WINDS OF CHANGE NEW ENERGY CURRENTS FOR AUGUST

August 10, 2005

Lynne Kiesling

It came out while I was at a conference and distracted, but here’s this month’s New Energy Currents from John Atkinson at Winds of Change.

If you are interested in energy technology and policy, this is a must read. And thanks to John for the links here!

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WHAT IS A COMMODITY, EXACTLY?

August 10, 2005

Lynne Kiesling

This item has been sitting open on my desktop for a few days … I enjoy reading Jonathan Schwartz’s blog, and he recently had a post in which he discussed what it means to be a commodity. See also his post from July 2004 on commodification that he links therein.

Andrew Morton (of Linux kernel fame) gave a low energy speech in which he said “Operating systems are commodities, now we’re moving to commoditize the rest of the stack.” He made those statements as if to suggest “commodity” meant “no longer of value.” I don’t think Andrew understands commodity markets. Here are a few: oil, gas, financial services, telecommunications and electricity. Commodity markets are the biggest and highest value markets in the world – because they represent products and services for which there’s global, perpetual demand. They tend to be markets won or lost based on research and development (check out the largest R&D spenders in the world, they’re almost all serving commodity markets). Computing may be a commodity – computers, and their operating systems, are most certainly not.

What interests me about the way he discusses commodification in these two posts is how relevant they are to my conception of the electricity industry. It’s sadly common for people to characterize electricity as a commodity, because “it’s just electrons, and people don’t care about it as long as the lights come on when they flip the switch”. However, just like bandwidth, the homogeneous nature of electrons does not make electric power service a commodity. As Jonathan said in his July 2004 post:

Can you discriminate one company’s bandwidth from another? Pricing, yes. Bandwidth, no. Can you discriminate one company’s browser from another? Yup, especially recently. How about one company’s mobile handset? Linux distro? 4-way x86 server? Absolutely. They all make that bandwidth useful and interesting, but they’re highly differentiated technology products.

[warning: vast overgeneralization ahead] Engineers and so-called consumer advocates like to call electricity a commodity, because thinking of it as such serves their interests. Thinking of electricity as a commodity maintains the focus on the physical assets of a closed system that requires real-time balancing. It also provides the impetus for an argument that prices should stay low and stable, preferably through some top-down regulatory mechanism.

That’s what is potentially threatening about the more modern, more empowering view of electricity as highly differentiated technology products bundled with a commodity. Such a concept of electricity opens up the system to be the union of the physical assets, and the physical reality of their operation, with the human preferences and human cognition that creates value through the consumption of highly differentiated technology products. It also means that the value proposition to customers becomes much, much richer than price level and stability. It becomes “we want to sell you things you can do with this commodity”, not “we have a monopoly to sell you a commodity at a regulated price”.

So here’s my question to you: is electricity a commodity? I say no. Electrons are a commodity. Electricity is a highly differentiated technology service, if we would only let it happen.

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BRANDING AND SPECIALIZATION

August 10, 2005

Lynne Kiesling

While we’re in a Smithian place here at KP, Grant McCracken’s post on the paucity of strong Canadian brands is comment-provoking. Grant poses Wealth of Nations as a theme (and indeed as the title of the post), so I will throw out some Smithian ideas.

Specialization. If you have a neighbor who is good at something, you let them specialize, you specialize in what you are good at, and then you trade. If US companies are good at creating popular brands and Canadian companies are not, then this trade is mutually beneficial. Being “good at” creating popular brands also implies that Canadian customers like US brands, which does generally seem to be the case, notwithstanding some of the anti-American sentiment that some of Grant’s commenters mention.

Branding of consumer goods seems to be very important to consumers, and thus profitable to those who specialize in it. Does this contribute to the wealth of nations, and to differences across nations in wealth? Yes. As Smith notes in Wealth of Nations, Introduction and Plan of the Work:

Nations tolerably well advanced as to skill, dexterity, and judgment, in the application of labour, have followed very different plans in the general conduct or direction of it; and those plans have not all been equally favourable to the greatness of its produce.

and Book I, Chapter i, paragraph 10:

It is the great multiplication of the productions of all the different arts, in consequence of the division of labour, which occasions, in a well-governed society, that universal opulence which extends itself to the lowest ranks of the people. Every workman has a great quantity of his own work to dispose of beyond what he himself has occasion for; and every other workman being exactly in the same situation, he is enabled to exchange a great quantity of his own goods for a great quantity, or, what comes to the same thing, for the price of a great quantity of theirs. He supplies them abundantly with what they have occasion for, and they accommodate him as amply with what he has occasion for, and a general plenty diffuses itself through all the different ranks of the society.

Specialization achieved via division of labor leads to productivity and plenty, but achievement of that productivity and plenty varies across nations depending on the policies that they adopt, and how those policies help or hinder the division of labor. In Smith’s system labor is the foundation of all productivity, so another aspect of branding and profit could be the sheer difference in population between the US and Canada. I am not convinced that this aspect of Smith’s model has been particularly robust over the centuries, but I mention it nonetheless.

Note also that Smith’s foundation for specialization and trade is not comparative advantage. Throughout WON he uses examples in which countries should specialize in those activities that they can perform more cheaply. This is an absolute advantage concept. To be a comparative advantage concept (as later provided by David Ricardo), countries should specialize in the activity in which they have the lowest cost disadvantage, even if all other countries can do everything more cheaply than they can. A subtle, but important, difference.

In WON Smith does kick open the door for Ricardo’s articulation of comparative advantage. In Book IV, Chapter ii, paragraph 15:

The natural advantages which one country has over another in producing particular commodities are sometimes so great that it is acknowledged by all the world to be in vain to struggle with them. By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hot walls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expence for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland? But if there would be a manifest absurdity in turning towards any employment thirty times more of the capital and industry of the country than would be necessary to purchase from foreign countries an equal quantity of the commodities wanted, there must be an absurdity, though not altogether so glaring, yet exactly of the same kind, in turning towards any such employment a thirtieth, or even a three-hundredth part more of either.

I don’t know if that’s the answer Grant seeks, but that’s what jumps out at me. Another important point is that specialization does not imply monolithic uniformity. There are some visible and valued Canadian brands: Canadian Club whiskey (although now owned by a multinational conglomerate), Roots, Club Monaco, etc. These are niche brands that appeal to a more specific customer demographic.

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