“Price gouging” is a non-concept

Lynne Kiesling

Mr. Coyote has a post from last week (complete with good links) on that mythical economic concept: price gouging.

There are two ways this can play out: 1) a short term spike in prices, as much as a dollar or more a gallon or 2) long and irritating gas lines. Lets hope that prices are allowed to reach their level and gas lines can be avoided, but who knows what political stupidities (ala Hawaii) will be proposed.

I really, really hate gas lines. I hate the uncertainty of whether or not I can find a station open. I hate refilling my tank every day to make sure I am not caught short. And for those of you who say I am arrogant since I can afford higher prices but the poor cannot, I assure you that folks who are paid by the hour are hurt much worse waiting around for hours in gas lines than the mere irritation I encounter.

And just when I was about to indulge in a full-on rant about how price gouging is an economic non-concept, I find this Iain Murray article in today’s Tech Central Station.

Rather than “gouging” members of the public, gas station owners are actually helping them by raising prices. This may seem counter-intuitive, but we have to consider how supply, demand and price interact. Normally, supply and demand dictate price, as is the case when gas prices spike. When price, however, is fixed, as would be the case if an “anti-gouging” law was in effect, then demand will outstrip the supply available. Shortage is the inevitable result. Gas would be rationed in some way, whether it is by some arbitrary legal fiat or by long lines at the pump. A black market is also more likely.

Moreover, as experience with rent control has shown, capping prices in times of scarcity also has the perverse effect of reducing the quantity of the good or service supplied. In other words, capping gas prices would actually lead to less gas being sold, as suppliers reduce the amount they are willing to sell in order to avoid loss. Shortages are therefore exacerbated. By contrast, anyone who tries “gouging” will find themselves with unsold supply and will be forced to lower their prices to offload it.

Yep, what they said. But the thing that really grates on me about the phrase “price gouging” is the implicit underlying belief that companies have all the power and they can stick it to us. First of all, that belief completely ignores the fact that their supply conditions have changed, and they have to adapt to that change. Second of all, it removes any empowerment and responsibility from consumers, and treats us as helpless victims who cannot be expected to confront tradeoffs and make decisions about whether or not to buy less at that higher price. In other words, the “price gouging” rhetoric over-empowers companies and under-empowers consumers. That’s got victimization mentality written all over it.

And you know what my response is to victimization mentality: get over it.

Prices as information transmitters

Lynne Kiesling

Last week on vacation we stayed in a paddle-in cabin 20 miles northeast of Ely, Minnesota. No phone, no television, no computer, hence no information on the horrific consequences of hurricane Katrina.

We ventured into town twice for dinner, once on Monday (when we saw a newspaper and saw the looming threat) and once on Wednesday. When we first drove into town on Saturday, gas was $2.54/gallon. On Monday it had increased to $2.59. On Wednesday it had increased to $2.99.

As soon as I saw the 40-cent increase, I said “the hurricane hit the Gulf refineries”. Sure ’nuff, when we bought a paper we saw what had happened.

By the time we left the area on Friday, gas prices had increased to $3.29.

The severity of price spikes like this reflects the magnitude of the shock (including the transportation time to such far away places), and the integration and sophistication of global energy markets to transmit that much information that quickly. It also reflects the consistent tendency to form expectations of the worst case scenario. If that worst case is not realized, as it was not in this case, prices tend to decline. To the extent that the price spike persists, it could do so because of uncertainty about just how bad the refinery damage is, as well as underlying scarcity.

Anecdotally, I have heard that $3+ gasoline induced dramatic curtailment in driving over the weekend. Some people wonder what it takes to get people to drive less; now we have some more information on that. Furthermore, retail prices have started to fall since Monday.

Bottom line: prices are very parsimonious, yet very sophisticated, transmitters of information about scarcity and expectations. They seem to have done their job in the past week.

Back from up north

Lynne Kiesling

This was the view from our cabin “up north” in the Boundary Waters:

northwoods

We saw lots of loons, otters, beavers, bald eagles, mergansers, etc. We did not see moose, much to our consternation. And we saw canoeists; we four were pretty much the only kayakers in our area. The landscape was beautiful, and we did lots of good paddling — anywhere from 3 miles/day to 10 miles/day. I also learned how to portage my kayak, which means schlepping your boat and your stuff from lake to lake over land.

A great vacation.