Archive for July, 2006

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One Final Set of Landis/Cycling Drug Testing Links Before I Go …

July 28, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

OK, really, I’m going on vacation … but I cannot tear myself away from the staggeringly histrionic and innumerate train wreck that is the media coverage of Floyd Landis’ high T/E result. Today’s coverage has further reinforced my belief in my comments yesterday that the media are irrationally sensationalist and the UCI announcement of a failed T/E A test before doing the B test was highly unprofessional. Both are bad for the sport, regardless of the choices of the cyclists.

The best media coverage, not surprisingly, is from Bicycling Magazine’s Joe Lindsey. See also USA Today blog posts here and here. Finally, a gene toxicology researcher and cyclist is posting statistically literate and thoughtful commentaries at Free Floyd Landis.

OK, now I’m officially on vacation!

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The fundamentals are basically the same: A reprise of last August’s high gas price posth

July 28, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

We leave on an intermountain West camping trip Saturday morning, so will be beyond the reach of communication technology for a fair chunk of the next week. But given that the underlying fundamentals have not changed substantially in the past year, even though the prices have, I am re-posting this post, this post, and this post from August, 2005, about gasoline prices. The comments on the original posts were good and plentiful, and I recommend them to you as well.

Aggregate post is below the break. Have a great week!

Read the rest of this entry ?

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Sean Lynch Speaks Sense on Electricity Markets

July 27, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

A belated shout-out to Sean Lynch at Catallarchy for his excellent post on electricity pricing and incentives to reduce use, creating system benefits in the bargain. It’s so good that I wish I had written it.

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Floyd Landis and Doping: Do Labs and/or the Media Understand Statistics?

July 27, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

Statistical illiteracy abounds in society, and nowhere is it more evident than in the screaming headlines this afternoon about “Floyd Landis’ failed drug test”. OK, so this statistical illiteracy is a pet peeve of mine, so let me scratch it here. Cyclists face a two-tier drug test, A and B. If you have an anomalous result in A, then you get a test on your backup B sample. On the night of his mind-boggling stage win in the Alps, Landis was tested (is it true that all stage winners are tested on the day? I think so). His ratio of testosterone/epitestosterone was high; they test for this because if you are testosterone doping (i.e., through patches etc.) it will mess up your ratio, which for most folks is normally around 1:1 but can be higher for endurance athletes. This year the UCI has changed the trigger ratio from 6:1 to 4:1.

Problem is, it’s a ratio (and you economists out there know the problem of drawing inferences about X and Y separately by looking at the ratio X/Y). According to the reports I’ve read this afternoon, Landis’ ratio was high not because of high testosterone; his testosterone was at normal levels, but his epitestosterone levels were extremely low. Epitestosterone cannot be turned into testosterone in the body. So it’s possible that the result is from too low a Y and not a too high X.

How can this be? Two of the things that can affect epitestosterone are alcohol and cortisone. We know that Landis had a beer the night before the stage because he was so upset at his bonking on that stage. We also know that Landis is legally taking cortisone shots for his half-dead hip.

If you want background information, see this American Statistical Assocation article on false positives in testosterone testing and other issues of testosterone testing. The article does a very nice job of discussing Bayes’ Rule and its importance in assessing probability of guilt, in the context of Mary Decker Slaney’s testosterone results at the 1996 US Olympic Trials; epitestosterone levels have a very high variance in women, particularly athletes (that’s why I know so much about this subject).

Two things boggle my mind on this. One is that the admittedly tainted sport of cycling has led to the media immediately leaping to the conclusion that Landis behaved illegally, when the correct inference to make from the data does not necessarily support that conclusion. At this point we cannot reject that conclusion, but it doesn’t sell stories to be statistically literate, does it? The other is that the UCI has publicized the results of the A test (although it was Landis’ team that identified him by name) before they have run the B test. That is unprofessional, and raises the criticism of the anti-American bias of French cycling. It would be better for the sport if riders did not attempt to enhance their performance illegally, and it would also be better for the sport if its organizers behaved with more professionalism and respect for statistical evidence.

If you want to keep up with this story in a non-histrionic and knowledgable place, I recommend tdf blog, which right now has several posts with very useful links (I got the ASA link from there).

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Economics Board Games? Settlers of Catan

July 27, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

Anyone familiar with Settlers of Catan? My programmer RA told me about it this morning, and it sounds very interesting. You settle an uninhabited island, the roll of a die determines resource conditions, and you trade. Whoever does the best wins. Dice rolls during the game change the resource conditions. Totally a barter economy, but it sounds like it gets some of the fundamental economics right (like not being a zero-sum game).

May have to check it out. The only board game of consequence we play in the KP house is Kingmaker. Not much economics in it. Naturally, as a fan of the wrongly-maligned Richard III, I try to make sure a York wins when we play. Sadly, that makes my strategies a bit more predictable, and the KP Spouse is a Smart Bunny, so I don’t win that often. Have to work on that …

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$3 Gas: People Respond to Incentives

July 27, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

US gasoline at $3 drives people onto buses, trains

In the first quarter, as gas prices started to surge again, public transportation ridership rose 4.25 percent nationwide, representing almost 2.5 billion trips, the APTA said.

The increase “seems to relate very largely to gas prices,” Millar said. “Hearing anecdotally from our members about their second quarter numbers, it would appear that trend is continuing.”

I’ll spare you the intro micro lecture on substitution and income effects of price changes. But note that notwithstanding the inelastic nature of the demand for gasoline, the demand curve does appear to be downward sloping, and people are doing some substitution from driving into other means of transportation.

But you know me: get on your bike! Get some fresh air! Get a workout on your way to work! Save gas money!

UPDATE: Great minds think alike; Tim Haab made essentially the same point with reference to the same article.

UPDATE 2: Commenter-instigated bleg: anyone have a quick link to public transportation ridership data?

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Love Dr. Seuss, But He Sure Went Around the Bend on the Lorax

July 25, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

Joanna at Fey Accompli has a nice post on Dr. Seuss and the political themes in his children’s books. I’ve always been disturbed by The Lorax, even when I was too young to understand why. Very interesting post.

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Heat Wave, Record Power Demand: Don’t Just Build More Generation

July 25, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

Even though most of this article with investment analyst comments on generation capacity and the recent heat wave focuses on how growing demand means there’s profit in building more generation, the article does finally get to the good stuff at the end:

Added generating capacity would boost the reserve cushion, but Hartley at Rice University said consumers also could be encouraged to trim energy use in peak hours.

“What we need is smart metering which allows people to sign up with electricity providers to switch power use to off-peak hours and get reduced rates,” he said.

“Send a price signal to consumers to conserve and that can free up more power for the peaks,” he said.

Gee, what a concept …

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Sensible Comments on Blackouts in Queens

July 25, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

There was a blackout in Queens, New York late last week, and some customers are still without power. At City Journal, Nicole Gelinas pins responsibility right where it belongs: political institutions do not have a profit motive for investing in infrastructure:

This neglect goes unnoticed when the electricity is actually on. But beginning early last week, for 100,000 residents and business owners in northwest Queens, it wasn’t (and, for several thousand, at press time, it still isn’t).

Until Queens citizens’ and politicians’ fury reached a crescendo by Friday, Bloomberg didn’t even seem to think it was his job to worry much about the blackout. He got annoyed at reporters who badgered him about it last Wednesday, and said testily that he would visit Queens only if he could fit it into his schedule. As late as Saturday, though he’d finally made it to Queens, he described borough residents’ weeklong ordeal as a mere “inconvenience.�

Can commercial enterprises get away with such indifference to their customers? No. Gelinas goes on to provide a concise analysis of the web of incentives facing utilities and independent generators:

While most media attention centers on the need to build new power plants to meet this demand, independent power producers do a reasonable job on this task themselves. During the Bloomberg years, competing power generation companies have quietly built, or begun work on, five new plants to serve New York City, enough to meet about two-thirds of projected demand through the end of the decade.

Why? Because competition works: despite permitting and environmental obstacles that politicians and community activists have thrown up, power generators want to build in New York, since they know they can make money here.

But competition doesn’t work at Con Ed. Since 1990s-era deregulation, Con Ed produces little power itself. Instead, it buys the power from the independent generators and distributes it to New Yorkers. Con Ed, as a monopoly, faces none of the competitive pressures that the independent generators face. So it must operate under close supervision by New York City and State to ensure that it’s doing a good job.

She hones right in on the underlying problem:

Because Con Ed doesn’t face competitive pressures to do what’s best for New York City, it’s the mayor who must ensure that the company does so, or New York’s growth suffers. Due to the Queens blackout, one of the borough’s largest employers, Citigroup, lacked a reliable supply of electricity. Next time, it might be Midtown Manhattan without power for a week. Faced with such a crisis, what would a responsible CEO conclude about his company’s future in Gotham?

A responsible CEO, if in the presence of competing electricity retailers, would have a range of attractive product and service options from which to choose. Those options might include an onsite combined heat and power generation facility, so Citigroup could go off-grid and take control of their own reliability issues. But as long as regulation restricts the availability of such options for customers, real people suffer.

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Secondary Markets for Tickets

July 24, 2006

Michael Giberson

I was going to post about the Washington Post‘s Sports section article on secondary markets for sporting event tickets, but the fine folks at The Sports Economist have beat me to it. In addition to the price discrimination angle that the Sports Economist notes, increased liquidity in the secondary market reduces risks to season ticket holders and will increase the demand for such packages.

Concert promoters are also getting into ticket auctions and support for secondary markets, but somewhat more reluctantly. A June 2 Washington Post story notes that music acts are sticking a toe into the auction waters under cover of charitable giving. Another WaPo story by music writer Richard Harrington covered the trend with a somewhat more negative tone. An accompanying story highlights singer Tom Petty’s effort to strike back against ticket resellers. While artists often think of resellers as profiting off of entertainment value that the artists are creating, and resent the resellers for it, they don’t see that the reseller is also creating value for consumers.

Of course the ready availability of a secondary market is going to dampen the supply for one of the perks of working in a large office: the Friday afternoon email from the VP with tickets to the weekend’s game that he can’t use. Now he’ll just resell them on Stubhub.

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