Archive for June 11th, 2008

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The demand for gasoline is downward sloping, how about that?

June 11, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

Another rollercoaster day on oil markets … here’s an interesting observation from a Bloomberg article on the topic:

“Refiners are managing the crude supply they have on hand because they are worried about weak product demand,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Both gasoline and distillate demand over the last four weeks are down from a year ago.”

Fuel consumption averaged 20.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 6, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the department said.

U.S. gasoline demand increases during the summer, when Americans take to the highways for vacations. The peak- consumption period lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to Labor Day in early September.

On a related note, I am glad to see more and more analysis and discussion about the interaction of the weak dollar and higher commodity prices (including oil, metals, and food). One reason commodity markets are so unsettled right now is that interaction, and while I’m not expert enough to comment on it, I’m glad to see it discussed (in, for example, Steve Hanke’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal yesterday on rice prices).

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Economist on intelligent appliances and energy efficiency

June 11, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

The Economist has an article this week on the energy efficiency and reliability-enhancing characteristics of intelligent appliances, with the catchy title of “fridges of the world, unite!”. They discuss the GridWise Olympic Peninsula Testbed project in which I participated, although they focus on the frequency control aspect of the project and not on the price-responsive capabilities of the devices.

The most advanced project is the brainchild of the American Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Last year it completed the first residential trial of its “Grid Friendly Appliance” controller–a small device that listens to the AC-frequency hum of the electricity supplied by the grid. If the hum goes a little flat, that indicates too much demand on the grid, so whenever a controller notices the American standard 60Hz grid frequency dipping to 59.95Hz (something that usually happens at least once a day) it shuts off the heating element in the appliance it is regulating for two minutes. If, at the end of that time, the grid is still unstable, the element stays off for another two minutes, and so on until a maximum of ten minutes have elapsed.

It then goes on to discuss a British firm, RLtec, which is making refrigerators with “Dynamic Demand” technology to enable them to adapt dynamically to even smaller fluctuations in grid conditions. They believe that in aggregate, even such minute responses can lead to meaningful improvements in efficiency.

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Will dynamic retail power prices help the environment?

June 11, 2008

Michael Giberson

Rich Sweeney, at Common Tragedies, raises the question “Is dynamic pricing green?

Riffing off of Lynne’s article in Smart Grid News and a complementary post here on Knowledge Problem, Rich acknowledges that dynamic pricing for retail power can encourage load shifting away from peaks and may even reduce consumption overall. But, he suggests, even if dynamic pricing reduces consumption a little it may not reduce overall emissions from power generation.

The reason, he says, it that much peak load generation is natural gas fueled, while baseload generation tends to be mostly coal fueled. All the load shifting that dynamic pricing encourages will move consumption away from gas and toward coal. Given that coal generation tends to produce much higher levels of pollutants than gas, load shifting can increase emissions.

As a general matter, I think Sweeney is right, but a more precise answer could be had looking at the question on a region-by-region level.

  • Some areas have more baseload hydro, for example, or nukes, in which case the shift from peak to off-peak could reduce emissions even absent any net conservation.
  • In some cases — fewer and fewer with oil prices the way they are — peak generators run on fuel oil, and some small generators run on diesel. Coal typically produces higher emissions than fuel-oil powered generators, but the contrast isn’t as great as with gas.
  • In the longer run, reducing peak consumption helps delay investment in new generating plants and transmission lines, thereby helping to avoid the environmental costs associated with that investment.

The real lesson here is that there is a difference between economizing on the consumption of electricity and economizing on the use of environmental resources. Putting a real price on retail electricity will bring about more efficient use of electric power, but if you want more economical use of environmental resources — such as, for example, clean air — then we need to put a real price on it, too.

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