Archive for December, 2008

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Organ donation as a club good rather than a public good

December 24, 2008

Michael Giberson

Al Roth, blogging at Market Design, discusses Lifesharers in a post “Lifesharers: organ donation as a club good rather than a public good“:

Deceased organ donation is a public good in the sense that everyone is better off in expectation if everyone else is willing to donate their organs when they die, but no one receives any direct benefit from donating his organs after death (and there must be perceived costs to donation, since not everyone is a donor).

Economists often worry about how to provide public goods …

In between public and private goods are “club goods,” like a park or country club that is funded by members, and is only open to members and their guests. The idea of LifeSharers is that organ donation can be a club good: members indicate that they are willing to donate their organs, giving first preference to other members.

That isn’t exactly the standard version of the economic term “public good,” but I guess we can make allowances for the remark being a blog post rather than an research article.

Roth frequently posts on organ donation and related topics. See his posts tagged kidney exchange and compensation for donors.

Previous posts on organ donation here at Knowledge Problem include “Life on the Kidney Queue in the Land of the Market” and “Markets for Kidney Transplants.”

Posted in Economics, Politics | 2 Comments »

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“10 big energy myths”

December 24, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

Here’s an interesting list of “energy myths” from Chris Goodall at The Guardian. What I find useful about his discussion is not the “myth debunking” per se, but rather his comments on why he considers them myths. The “wind is unreliable” myth, for example:

Actually, during some periods earlier this year the wind provided almost 40% of Spanish power. Parts of northern Germany generate more electricity from wind than they actually need. Northern Scotland, blessed with some of the best wind speeds in Europe, could easily generate 10% or even 15% of the UK’s electricity needs at a cost that would comfortably match today’s fossil fuel prices.

The intermittency of wind power does mean that we would need to run our electricity grids in a very different way. To provide the most reliable electricity, Europe needs to build better connections between regions and countries; those generating a surplus of wind energy should be able to export it easily to places where the air is still. The UK must invest in transmission cables, probably offshore, that bring Scottish wind-generated electricity to the power-hungry south-east and then continue on to Holland and France. The electricity distribution system must be Europe-wide if we are to get the maximum security of supply.

We will also need to invest in energy storage. At the moment we do this by pumping water uphill at times of surplus and letting it flow back down the mountain when power is scarce. Other countries are talking of developing “smart grids” that provide users with incentives to consume less electricity when wind speeds are low. Wind power is financially viable today in many countries, and it will become cheaper as turbines continue to grow in size, and manufacturers drive down costs. Some projections see more than 30% of the world’s electricity eventually coming from the wind. Turbine manufacture and installation are also set to become major sources of employment, with one trade body predicting that the sector will generate 2m jobs worldwide by 2020.

This is a more thoughtful discussion of these issues than one usually sees in non-industry-specific media.

Posted in Economics, Electricity, Energy markets | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

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The forthcoming dramatic fall of reported oil reserves

December 23, 2008

Michael Giberson

The forthcoming dramatic fall of reported oil reserves is due to falling prices and reporting requirements, not ‘peak oil’ or the manipulations of greedy industry executives.

Geoff Styles offers a timely discussion of how SEC requirements for reporting oil and gas reserves and current low prices will combine to force a potentially dramatic drop in reported oil and gas reserves as of the end of the year. In brief, current SEC rules require that oil and gas reserves reported on financial statements be limited to quantities very likely to be recoverable at the end-of-year market price for such resources. Given the quite low price expected at year end 2008 – current prices are under $40/bbl while 2007 prices ended over $95/bbl, companies owning oil and gas reserves will report sharply lower amounts of oil and gas in reserve.

Un-savvy investors may be alarmed – where did all that oil go? – and un-savvy political commentators will find the reports as more evidence for peak oil. But as Styles points out, the reserves are not going anywhere, and the resources are still there to be had for a price.

Styles explains that while current SEC rules require reserves reports to be based upon a single day’s price, industry practice has long shifted to using less-volatile metrics for reserves evaluation. The SEC has proposed adapting its rules so as to reduce the effects of price volatility on reserves reporting, and Styles says the upcoming dramatic “loss” of reserves demonstrates the urgent need for such a change.

(One apparent error in Styles’ otherwise excellent post: he suggested that changing prices may result in companies moving reserves from the “proved reserves” to the “probable reserves” category, but such a shift would indicate changing estimates of recovery based upon technological factors. Less favorable commercial conditions are appropriately reflected by shifting estimated quantities of petroleum from “reserves” to “contingent resources” categories in the standard industry framework for modeling petroleum resources.)

UPDATE: Aweek after the above post, the SEC adopted the revisions mentioned. See my follow-up post.

Posted in Energy markets, Regulation | 2 Comments »

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A bike-powered phone charger

December 23, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

As a cyclist, I occasionally measure my power output on the bike (you fellow bike weenies know how much attention we pay to wattage!), and wonder about using my work to some beneficial purpose beyond my own enjoyment, health, and sports training. There are gyms here and there that use their stationary bikes to contribute to their electricity supply, but here’s an innovation that makes such a use of cycling work more direct and personal: a way to use your power output to charge your cell phone. In addition to being clever, it’s good for cycling safety, reducing the probability of being out on the road with a dead battery.

Posted in Electricity, How cool is this?, Technology | 3 Comments »

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Another potentially price-responsive appliance: the dynamic fridge

December 22, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

We have another step toward the smart grid, the transactive electric power network prototyped in the GridWise Olympic Peninsula project: from the UK, pilot testing of 3,000 dynamic, intelligent refrigerators!

The trial, run by energy company npower, will be the first trial of new technology to be approved under the government’s carbon emissions reduction target. …

Paul Lazarevic, a director at RLtec, which will supply the dyanmic demand technology, said: “The national grid is balanced at 50Hz and there are power stations on standby to kick in if it goes below that level, for example when everyone goes to boil a kettle for tea at half time of football match on television.”

He added: “An algorithm device sits in the fridge and monitors grid frequency and if the grid frequency goes up or down it adjusts energy use within safe parameters.

“The beauty of it is that you don’t know it’s happening and there’s no safety risk with your fridge defrosting.”

The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change estimates that dynamic intelligent devices like these refrigerators can enable consumers to mitigate the likely future increases in electricity costs, as well as reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2 million metric tons annually.

This is all very heartening news, and bodes well for future transactive devices that we can program to participate autonomously in dynamic retail electricity markets, increasing our energy efficiency in the process. However, the article mentions only that the dynamic fridges will respond autonomously to frequency fluctuations. There is no mention of making the fridge transactive by using that same digital intelligence functionality to enable the fridge to respond to fluctuations in prices. This functionality is the transactive test by which I evaluate all intelligent end-use devices.

Will the UK’s dynamic fridges be able to pass my transactive test?

Posted in Economics, Electricity, Technology | 1 Comment »

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Couple of bailout and stimulus links

December 21, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

Going into 2009 with a recession, the discussion of a federal stimulus plan has kicked into high gear. This useful aggregation at the New York Times has some recommendations from economists about the form such a stimulus should take. Like Tyler Cowen, I find Andrew Samwick’s comments particularly important to bear in mind:

If I had my druthers, the word ’stimulus’ would be expunged from public discussion, along with ‘bailout’ and ‘rescue.’ These words convey the idea that, because we have so mismanaged our economic and financial affairs, we are somehow able or entitled to conjure up additional funds out of thin air to fix our problems.There are two problems with this idea. ….

First, the purpose of government spending is to purchase goods and services that the government needs to meet its responsibilities, not to hand out resources to those who panhandle most loudly for them. … Second, there is no free lunch: the money we spend today is a loss to the Treasury, whether as ‘timely, temporary, and targeted’ tax cuts that have no discernible impact; payments to delay bankruptcy for large, mismanaged entities, whether A.I.G. or the Big Three; or the largest public works program since the Interstate highway system. That loss to the Treasury must be made up at some future date, by later cohorts of taxpayers.

With respect to the ultimate fate of the auto manufacturers, which may be delayed due to Friday’s White House announcement of a bailout plan, Matt Welch and Mark Schmitt have a good Bloggingheads video discussion of the pros and cons of auto company bankruptcy declarations.

Posted in Economics, Politics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments »

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End-of-year best album lists

December 21, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

The inevitable “best albums of 2008″ lists are starting to come out, including this top-50 list from Pitchfork and these lists from the three DJs at woxy.com. Some names show up repeatedly — TV On The Radio, Vampire Weekend, Fleet Foxes, The Hold Steady, Hot Chip, Blitzen Trapper, etc.

I have to admit that while I’ve enjoyed listening to these bands and the others on the lists, none have moved me to purchase them. The new albums I’ve bought this year — Death Cab For Cutie, Okkervil River, Snow Patrol, and James being the most remarkable — are all good, but only the new Death Cab is one that I would put in the “truly memorable” category for 2008 releases. There are good songs on the Okkervil River album (Pop Lie, for example), and I like the James album, but the new Snow Patrol is only “meh” for me. The other bands I’ve enjoyed this year, including Jukebox the Ghost, Say Hi, and Rogue Wave, didn’t make any of these lists.

Posted in Music | Tagged | 1 Comment »

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Almost done with Anathem

December 19, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

Anyone else out there reading Anathem? I am on page 726, and I’m really enjoying it. I think to this point it’s been a book about consciousness, in addition to being an action/fantasy novel. But I can tell that it’s about to delve into more, shall we say, timely narrative.

One thing I’ve learned thus far is that I am probably part of the Sconic Discipline …

ETA: I think it’s a combination of the best aspects of Snow Crash and The Baroque Cycle — the near-world sci fi/fantasy aspects of Snow Crash and the expansive storytelling and narrative of The Baroque Cycle. And a little bird has told me that Stephenson has finally nailed an ending!

Posted in Books | 10 Comments »

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New analysis: California’s grid can accommodate more renewables

December 18, 2008

Lynne Kiesling

This Wired article summarizes and links to a poster for the American Geophysical Union meetings (pdf) from Elaine Hart, a graduate student in civil and environmental engineering at Stanford. Her power flow simulation suggests that the existing transmission network in California can accommodate up to 70% of renewables in the portfolio on a hot summer day. The number of overloaded lines in the simulation rises from 11 to 31, which is not that large an increase given that there are almost 5,000 transmission lines in California. Still, this kind of work can be really useful to help target transmission investment.

The Wired article also has some good links for further reading. I look forward to seeing more of this research!

Posted in Electricity | Tagged , , | Comments Off

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Kids don’t know their history – Energy Czar and Atari

December 18, 2008

Michael Giberson

At Common Tragedies Daniel Hall links to my post on reading recommendations for the Car Czar which mentions the Atari simulation game “Energy Czar,” only he titles his post: “Maybe Carol Browner should dust off an old Atari 2600.”

C’mon now, you couldn’t get a serious game like “Energy Czar” for the Atari 2600. Energy Czar was for the Atari 400/800 models of home computers.

Check out this motherload of Atari history.

Here is a catalog entry for “Energy Czar”:

Become a national hero! The President has just appointed you Energy Czar and given you full power to guide the nation through the energy crisis. Promote or restrict supplies of energy resources, raise or lower taxes on them, regulate prices, and tighten or loosen environmental controls. But to stay in power, you must keep people happy and maintain sufficient energy supplies to meet demand. The results of your decisions show up in the growth rate, of the economy, the inflation rate and whether or not the public thinks you’re doing a good job. Full instruction guide included. Ages 12 to adult. Requires the ATARI 410 Program Recorder and the ATARI BASIC cartridge.

Minimum RAM requirement: 16K

Hmmm. You can “promote or restrict” resource supplies, you can “raise or lower” taxes, and you can “tighten or loosen” environmental restrictions, but when it comes to prices your only option is to “regulate.”

But wasn’t the most successful energy policy initiative to come out of the late 1970s — at least to the extent we were trying to ‘keep people happy and maintain sufficient energy supplies’ — the deregulation of oil and gas resource prices?

Posted in Energy markets, Miscellany, Music, Politics, Professional sports | Tagged , | 2 Comments »

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