Archive for January 9th, 2009

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Culinary notes: foods that are good for you, including … duck fat?

January 9, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

A couple of nifty food notes have crossed my path today. First, an incredibly handy list of places to find duck fat french fries around the US, including the fabulous Hot Doug’s in Roscoe Village in Chicago. Yummmmm, encased meats! Interestingly, the hat tip for this article goes to John Hodgman’s Twitter feed. I love when Twitter is substantive!

On a related note, at New Year’s Eve dinner one of my friends claimed that duck fat has similar health benefits to olive oil and other unsaturated fats. I was skeptical but hopeful, as I am a huge fan of duck. Turns out she’s right, and I’ve even found a 1991 New York Times article on the French (quelle surprise!) research substantiating the claim:

In a paper presented to a convention of duck and goose producers in France last spring, Dr. Renaud suggested that goose and duck fat may improve cardiovascular health. Only clinical studies can determine the benefits of the fat from web-footed birds, but chemists agree with Dr. Renaud, who said in a recent telephone interview, “Goose and duck fat is closer in chemical composition to olive oil than it is to butter or lard.”

A more recent New York Times article, from June 2008, lists some of the foods that are relatively easily accessible that you should be eating but probably aren’t. These include beets (YUM), swiss chard (yum), frozen blueberries (YUM!), canned pumpkin (YUM), and sardines (yuck). The article also helpfully lists ways to prepare these foods. After first reading this article over the summer I bought a tin of sardines, and they still sit in my pantry, awaiting the appearance of my steely nerve to get me to try to choke them down. I think I’ll follow the article’s advice and mulch them into a purée with mustard, onions, and lots of pepper. My idea was to grill them, but it got to be winter before I steeled my nerves to do so.

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My benchmark oil price is better than yours

January 9, 2009

Michael Giberson

The WSJ’s Environmental Capital blog notes that the price for “WTI”, which is to say the price for West Texas Intermediate grade of crude oil, a commonly used benchmark for quoting crude oil prices, has been drifting out of the usual relationships with other commonly used benchmarks, like Brent crude. (Here is Wikipedia on WTI and Brent.)

The post cites opposing views from FT’s Alphaville blog and Platt’s The Barrel. At Alphaville, the changes indicate that WTI is losing touch with reality:

Essentially that means once Cushing storage nears capacity WTI will become increasingly depressed versus other crude grades and therefore disconnected from real oil supply/demand fundamentals. As a result it will no longer be a good indicator of US crude prices.

While at The Barrel, the WTI price movements are reflecting reality:

So it’s WTI that’s reflecting what is going on in the world: the collapse in demand, oversupply and a resulting enormous contango that is encouraging storage. On this one, WTI is ahead of the curve, not behind.

Why the difference?

Maybe where you sit affects what you see.  Should I say more clearly that the U.K.-based Alphaville blog favors the local Brent benchmark, while the U.S.-based The Barrel thinks that WTI is all right.

My view, from here in Lubbock: West Texas Intermediate is A-OK.

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What model for the financial system breakdown? Falling dominoes? Cascading outages?

January 9, 2009

Michael Giberson

Simon Johnson reviews and provides a summary of a paper by Daron Acemoglu on the current financial crisis.  Johnson summarizes one of Acemoglu’s points as follows:

The seeds of the crisis were sown in the Great Moderation (the low inflation, relatively stable last 20 years or so).  Everyone who patted themselves or others on the back during that time was really missing the point (p.3).  The same interconnections that reduced the effects of small shocks created vulnerability to massive system-wide domino effects.  No one saw this clearly.

This kind of model – in which greater resistance to small shocks can create vulnerability to large system-wide effects – has been employed to understand the relationship between reliability in electric power systems.  It seems to be the case that at least many of the things that a local electric transmission system does to improve reliability work to push the larger system of interconnected local systems to a state in which it becomes more vulnerable to severe reliability failures – cascading blackouts.  There seems to be a kind of frontier, given the current state of the transmission system, where we can choose to have more frequent small blackouts and a very low risk of a huge blackout, or we can choose to have infrequent small blackouts with a slightly higher risk of a huge blackout.  (See, for example, work on cascading blackouts by Ian Dobson, Benjamin Carreras, David Newman and others, collected here, especially this paper.)

Of course, not every system shows this kind of interrelationship – making individual automobiles more reliable doesn’t increase the probability of a widespread automotive system failure, making telecom components more reliable doesn’t increase the probability of a cascading outage of phone services – and it is an open question whether this kind of model can be well employed to describe risks in the financial system.

To be fair, it is also an open question whether more conventional kinds of economic models can be well employed to describe the recent turns in the financial system.

(Johnson on Acemoglu found via Marginal Revolution and Economist’s View.)

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