Archive for February 24th, 2009

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Does anyone care about oil and gas reserves reports included in year-end financial statements?

February 24, 2009

Michael Giberson

On December 23, 2008, I posted on “The forthcoming dramatic fall of reported oil reserves.” Now, as predicted, reports are showing up like this one from Warren Resources, Inc.:

Independent reserve engineers’ estimates of Warren’s proved oil and gas reserves as of December 31, 2008, were 129.3 Bcfe, compared to 356.4 Bcfe as of December 31, 2007, which represented a 64% decline. … This decrease in estimated proved reserves is largely due to the steep decline in year-end oil and gas prices.

(I don’t know anything in particular about Warren Resources, it just happened that they recently issued a news release with year-end results and it was readily found in a Google News search)

As the December 23 post noted, because SEC requirements required reserve estimates to be based upon single-day end-of-year prices, reserve estimates can be dramatically affected by price volatility. The Warren Resources post illustrates the point nicely.

SEC’s reserve reporting requirements were controversial, in part because they departed from industry standard approaches to reserve estimation. And, as mentioned in a December 30 follow up post, the SEC is changing its rules for reporting reserves. The SEC justifies revising their requirements “to help investors evaluate the value of their investments in these companies.”

But will the change help investors?

Richard Miller, a former president of the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE), addressed this question in a presentation at last year’s SPEE annual meeting. His article based on that presentation is contained in the new Journal of the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (pp. 32-39). He said:

Before expending time and effort to revise the SEC reserves reporting rules, perhaps it might be useful for the SEC, reporting companies, and energy company investors to consider this question:

Does the effort to report oil and gas reserves under the current or revised definitions provide information that is useful to investors? Put another way; is the oil and gas reserves information reported in SEC Form 10-K and 10-Q of real value to investors and, if so, what is the value of that information?

In short, Miller finds no support for the idea that the SEC-required reports are valuable to investors.

Miller takes two separate approaches to examine the issue. First he looks at whether stock prices and trading volumes appear to be affected by information announcements (both disclosures of SEC-required reserve reports, and other, more informal information releases). Second, he surveyed oil and gas industry analysis at major financial advisory firms. Neither approach suggested there was much value in the information.

His result is not too surprising. A number of energy industry companies devote significant effort to tracking petroleum reserves, constantly acquiring and digesting information more subtle and more substantial than that required by the SEC. By the time the official version of reserves estimates is issued it is old news. While it may be good for the SEC to revise its rules for other reasons, it won’t provide much in the way of “help to investors.”

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Smart grid rhetoric at yesterday’s clean energy summit

February 24, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

[UPDATED to add live link to NPR story}

NPR just ran a story on yesterday's clean energy summit in Washington DC. The event was organized by Senator Harry Reid and included such luminaries as Boone Pickens, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore, in addition to political representatives such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Secretary of Energy Steven Chu. The Pickens Plan blog has a good post summarizing the event, including a link to a video of the event. I'd like to highlight two ideas that came up yesterday, and that the NPR story also discussed -- the connection of smart grid technologies, invesments, and rhetoric to the construction of long-distance transmission, and the way that the state's rights/eminent domain issues were discussed. This discussion focused on a narrow and unrepresentative set of issues in electricity policy, and even within smart grid policy.

Pelosi picked up on a point that Boone Pickens has been reiterating for months -- they both contend that the US can be the "Saudi Arabia of wind", but that transmission construction is crucial to get wind-generated power from where the wind blows to where people live, work, and consume electricity in the course of their daily activities. She stated explicitly that this transmission must be built, and that it must be a "smart grid". According to the Pickens blog, Secretary Chu picked up that theme and "talked about the technical issues which attend to building a 21st Century Grid". [Ugh, would authors please, please stop capitalizing "21st century grid" and "smart grid"? They are not proper names, and do not have the monolithic homogeneity associated with such nomenclature. Stop it. Please. -ed.]

Not having attended the event or watched the video, I infer that Secretary Chu talked about the technical challenges associated with the interconnection of distributed renewable generation — their production is intermittent, co-location with storage helps, but having clear technical rules by which these sources can and cannot place electricity on the network is crucial for system balance. That is a serious and important issue, one that we’ve been working on for nearly a decade, and will continue to tackle as the electric power network becomes increasingly populated with distributed active agents, be they generators or consumers.

However … I think Rep. Pelosi overstates the case when she makes the blanket statement that long-distance transmission must be a smart grid. I would amend her rhetoric to say that if we are going to build new long-distance transmission it should have the two-way communication overlay that is the hallmark of a smart grid, but that the most important area to focus digital intelligence in the long-distance transmission network is in the interconnection function that Secretary Chu discussed. I can envision, indeed I have argued for, a future in which long-distance transmission includes remote devices for the dynamic injection of reactive power to balance power flows autonomously (and ideally in response to price signals in a market for reactive power) when needed, and not in the static “dumb” way that existing capacitors do.

But she misses the point that the most important, most relevant, and potentially most value-creating place where the digital intelligence-creating capabilities of a smart grid are the greatest is in the consumer-facing portion of the network — in the distribution network, and in the end uses to which consumers put the electricity they consume. That’s where smart grid technologies, and the complementary policies that enable retail choice and dynamic pricing, are the most valuable. But that’s outside of her jurisdiction …

Which brings us to the second issue. Constructing long-distance transmission to transport wind-generated electricity from South Dakota to Deleware will mean crossing many states. States have siting jurisdiction for all infrastructure, as discussed in this Houston Chronicle article on the summit. The NPR story quotes Fred Butler of the New Jersey Public Utilities Commission, who is also the current president of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, articulating this point, and stating that state regulators would work with federal regulators in siting new wires, but would not relinquish that authority.

Appallingly, Sen. Reid said that Commissioner Butler “represents 253 regulators” and not the interests of the American people (implying, naturally, that Sen. Reid does represent the interests of the American people). In fact, as noted in the Chronicle story,

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he would propose giving the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission the authority to trump states in deciding where to place new power lines as part of a bid to boost electrical transmission capacity nationwide.

Current rules require approval from local, state and federal agencies before new transmission systems are installed. States generally have the final say about where new transmission lines go, an authority that state utility regulators have been reluctant to relinquish.

Under Reid’s proposal, states in regions with huge renewable energy potential would have time to come up with their own plans for building new transmission capacity, but if they moved too slowly, FERC could get involved.

That way of putting it sounds more like Butler’s partnership than Reid’s heavy-handed use of eminent domain that is indifferent to both the Constitution and to the idea that Congressional representatives do not actually have the knowledge, capability, or incentives to represent the interests of the American people. Still, Reid’s language and tone, and willingness to invoke such a strong stance, bears watching if you are concerned about the concentration of government authority in ways that contravene the Constitution.

Instead of focusing so much attention on building wind farms in South Dakota and threatening federal legislation and the exercise of eminent domain, I encourage these policymakers who are invoking smart grid rhetoric and ideas to work together to focus on ways to use this intelligence capability to send information and price signals to consumers. If state and federal policymakers work together to change state regulations to allow dynamic pricing and retail choice in energy products and services, we may see conservation and changing demand patterns that reduce the need for new wind farms and new long-distance transmission lines. Take advantage of the transactive capabilities of a smart grid!

Put another way: how can these luminaries know what the true value is of new wind farm and transmission investment when they don’t even know what the true value of electricity is to end-use consumers?

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An economic history lesson on fiscal responsibility

February 24, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

At the Atlantic’s newish business web site, Greg Clark has a very good post on the history of government spending in Britain. He starts in the early post-Magna Carta period:

In England, for example, from the Magna Carta of 1215 until the Glorious Revolution of 1689, public debt was always tiny — a few percent of national income.  This was because while the King controlled expenditures, the English Parliament controlled taxation. And Parliament refused to tax. …

Without a ready tax source, the early Kings were the ultimate sub-prime borrowers. Royal borrowing was at extremely high interest rates. The only lenders were financial adventurers willing to risk periodic defaults.

Then after the Glorious Revolution constrained the ability of the sovereign to borrow, putting both the taxation and expenditure function in Parliament. Quelle surprise, spending increased dramatically! But since taxation was extremely unpopular, Parliament funded this spending with, you guessed it, borrowing. Thus the 18th century saw unprecedented levels of government debt leading up to the Napoleonic wars, debt that only lessened with the reduction in government military spending after Napoleon’s defeat.

He then draws some conclusions for our current debt situation, highlighting the costs of government debt-funded spending. Part of Greg’s conclusion really struck me:

But because this damage is creeping and insidious — not as obvious as hacking off a limb — it will never motivate real political action.

Yet again, as in my post yesterday about the erosion of civil liberties in Britain, I am moved to invoked the “frog in a pot of water” metaphor. The costs of crowding out private spending and private entrepreneurial activity are not only creeping and insidious, they are part of Bastitat’s unseen. When we don’t pay attention to those costs, we underestimate the costs of this debt-funded spending, and therefore derive an incorrect estimate of the net value of the spending.

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