Archive for February, 2009

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The continuing relevance of the bootlegger-and-Baptist model

February 23, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

In 1983 Bruce Yandle wrote an influential article in Regulation, “Bootleggers and Baptists: The Education of a Regulatory Economist”. His model explains how two parties with seemingly incongruent values can come together to get a regulation passed that meets the objectives of both parties. In the bootlegger and Baptist case, both parties benefit from restrictions on Sunday alcohol sales, and will therefore lobby politicians in favor of such restrictions. The bootlegger-and-Baptist model even has its own Wikipedia page. It’s a very powerful model for understanding coalition formation and regulation in many situations.

Recently in Newsweek George Will wrote about Yandle’s model in a column striking a cautionary note about the current increase in government regulation and involvement in the economy. To illustrate the dynamics and the incentives, Will discusses two cases: sulfur dioxide emission regulation via technology mandates, and tobacco regulation.

Will’s column is a good introduction to the bootlegger-and-Baptist model, which really is relevant in many settings and robust to a lot of different contexts. I find it particularly relevant when applied to environmental regulation.

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British government desire for surveillance expropriates private property

February 23, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

For the past couple of years the British government has been extremely aggressive in installing surveillance cameras — CCTV on high streets, speeding cameras on highways, and so on. If you are a typical British citizen, your actions are captured on camera hundreds of times a day, and you can be watched with suspicion even without the government having any probable cause reason to suspect you of anything. Relatedly, they have also been challenging people taking pictures in public, and have recently essentially made it illegal to take pictures of police officers (with the justification being the possibility of terrorist abduction of officers). The erosion of civil liberties in Britain has been short and sharp.

Now some local authorities are witholding liquor licences from pub owners unless they agree to install CCTV inside the pub. One striking recent example is The Draper’s Arms in Islington, a borough of London. As the Londonist notes:

Nick Gibson is attempting to re-open The Draper’s Arms on Barnsbury Street, a former Evening Standard pub of the year winner that shut its doors last August. But to regain a licence, he’s been told he must fit CCTV cameras that capture the head and shoulders of everyone entering the pub, and be willing to hand over footage whenever the police ask for it.

Gibson is furious at what he sees as erosion of civil liberties. However, his local MP and the Metropolitan Police keep blithely citing ‘public safety’. We find that a bit rich, considering studies have shown CCTV is less effective than increased street lighting at cutting crime, and CCTV footage is used to help solve just 3% of London robberies.

Henry Porter comments on this situation in The Guardian, and links to Gibson’s original letter to The Guardian about this erosion of civil liberties. I particularly like this idea:

Gibson has been put in a difficult position and I would expect the council to make the first move to resolve what is a minor but also crucial issue of privacy, which of course is guaranteed to each one of us by the Human Rights Act.

If it fails to do so, he might like to provide a mask at the entrances to his pub with a suggestion that if people want to drink in private they hold up the mask as they pass the cameras. Or possibly drinkers may like to go equipped with their own mask. A V for Vendetta mask seems appropriate (£4.99).

Perhaps there should be a V for Vendetta evening at the Drapers Arms. If Gibson would like to suggest a date in the next two weeks, I will publicise it.

In the meantime, it is important that the police understand it is not their business to use their influence to make and implement policy affecting people’s privacy.

Between the demise of civil liberties in the UK and the demise of economic liberties in the US, I’m beginning to feel like the frog in the pot of water with the temperature increasing. How soon will we be cooked?

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Update: The Tea Party’s brewing …

February 20, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

[sorry for the pun-ed.]

In doing my morning reading I find posts at EconLog from both Arnold Kling and David Henderson that are in line with my thoughts on government bailouts and increasing anger and frustration. Arnold says

Starting last September, our country has gone through six months that shook the world. We have abandoned free markets. We have abandoned democracy, in the sense of having policies that reflect the popular will. The United States has become a technocratic dictatorship.

David’s post is on Rick Santelli’s CNBC video that I mentioned in my previous post. And as of this morning, there is now an official Rick Santelli’s Tea Party web site, with Tea Party plans for July 4, 2009 in Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

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Mortgage bailouts and the Chicago Tea Party

February 20, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Count me in as a taxpayer, mortgage holder, and economist who thinks that the Obama mortgage bailout program is bad policy-it’s expensive with little obvious benefit, it creates bad incentives and ex post rewards bad decisions (bad decisions that were abetted by bad government policy), and it’s morally reprehensible. Peter Klein’s remarks on the plan reflect my beliefs:

I am bewildered. But, more than that, I am angry. I can’t count how many news accounts I’ve seen about the poor, struggling homeowners who can’t make the monthly mortgage payment, are about to be foreclosed, and risk losing the family home, yard, white picket fence, and piece of the American Dream. But I haven’t heard one word about the poor, struggling renters, the ones who scrimped and saved and put money away each month towards a down payment, who kept the credit cards paid off, stayed out of trouble, and lived modestly, and thought that maybe, just maybe, the fall in housing prices meant that they, finally, could afford a house — maybe one of those foreclosed units down the street. These people are Bastiat’s unseen. For them, Obama’s housing plan is a giant slap in the face. To hell with the prudent. Party on, profligate! Now that’s what I call moral hazard.

I join Peter in being both angry and bewildered. That’s why I was heartened to see the groundswell of support for CNBC commentator Rick Santelli’s “Chicago Tea Party” mortgage revolt video from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Santelli, a former trader who has been a critic of the Fed’s monetary policy and its effects in the housing market, gives voice to the feelings of anger and injustice of many taxpayers and homeowners. After his show yesterday he talked with Stephen Spruiell of the National Review, and continued to be firm and eloquent:

The issue is, you can’t pick out 8 or 9 percent and give them things that weaken the 90 or 92 percent who are carrying the water. You need to come up with legislation that may help the people that need it but not hurt the people that… listen, my 401k’s a 201k, my kid’s college tuition is going up 10 percent. This is tough for everybody. Maybe a tax break, maybe everybody who has a house gets something. They need to quit picking winners and losers, and they have to quit alienating the classes. You have to figure out a way to float all boats, and I think that’s where the administration has gone wrong, and I think that’s the nerve I hit.

He sure did hit a nerve; CNBC has set up a poll page where you can vote on whether or not you would join Santelli’s Chicago Tea Party. When I voted “yes” and saw the results, it looked like this:

And now someone (calling himself “Patrick Henry”) has set up a Chicago Tea Party blog.

These invocations of the American Revolution reflect the important fact that the origins of the United States rest on the economic consequences of unjust government policy. We are a country founded on a tax revolt, and more importantly, on the ideas of individual liberty and autonomy that are crucial for us to be able to live together in civil society. To the extent that more and more people see the bank bailouts, loans to the auto industry, the “stimulus” bill, and mortgage bailouts as unjust government policy, we are going to tap into these beliefs.

And frankly, I say bring it on. I usually “keep on keepin’ on” with respect to politics; I’m non-partisan, I hate politics, and no politician has ever represented my philosophy and values, so I just take politics as a drag on productive activity and move on. But this is beginning to worry me and make me angry.

As an aside, this is one reason why I think the “liberaltarian” conversation that Will Wilkinson and others have been having will always be strained — if American progressives embraces fiscally irresponsible government policies that are seen by many people as unjust, this progressive liberal-classical liberal confluence is going to be very shaky indeed.

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A new paper from me: increasing energy efficiency through decentralized coordination

February 18, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I’m pleased to report that EcoAlign, the marketing arm of the Distributed Energy Financial Group, has issued a white paper I wrote, “Markets, Technology and Institutions: Increasing Energy Efficiency Through Decentralized Coordination”. From the press release:

EcoAlign, a strategic marketing agency focused on energy and the environment, has released the second report in the Project Energy Code series.  “Markets, Technology and Institutions: Increasing Energy Efficiency Through Decentralized Coordination,” was written by distinguished economist Dr. Lynne Kiesling.  The report explores “decentralized coordination” and “centralized control” as competing approaches to achieve energy efficiency.  Dr. Kiesling finds that decentralized coordination is more effective at closing the “green gap” — the difference between consumers’ stated intentions regarding the environment and their actions or behaviors in making investment and consumption decisions.

The paper discusses new infrastructure technologies that increase consumer awareness of electricity consumption and the ability of consumers to change their behavior. These infrastructure technologies facilitate economic decision-making through decentralized coordination and can increase energy efficiency and close the green gap.

The essay focuses on how technological change, particularly intelligent digital end-use devices, makes decentralized coordination possible in this industry that historically has had to rely on top-down physical and economic hierarchical control. Decentralized coordination, arising from these new technologies, from new products and services, and from policies that allow these products and services to enter retail markets, empowers individual consumers to make their own energy consumption decisions, and to control and manage their own energy use. It gives them tools and options for acting on their environmental values, and it makes clear and transparent the alignment between economic incentives (saving money) and environmental incentives (reducing resource use). The essay also discusses the cognitive characteristics of real human decision-making, such as risk aversion, status quo bias, loss aversion, and the use of heuristics to make choices in an information-rich and a complex environment. Policies that fail to account for these traits will lead to unintended consequences, and intelligent end-use technologies enable individual consumers to overcome many of these traits. Overcoming them at an institutional level, though, is a large challenge — a century of cost-based economic regulation has embedded inefficient loss aversion in both regulators and the regulated.

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Coffee shop builds business with Twitter

February 17, 2009

Michael Giberson

Unlike Lynne, I don’t Twitter.  (No Facebook or Myspace, either.  I don’t text from my phone – well, only to reply when my kids text me first; I used to IM, but I don’t anymore.)  I do have a LinkedIn profile, but other than blogging here and responding to the occasional email, that is about as close to ‘social media’ as I get these days.

But I am, as you might say, Twitter-curious.  This story about a Houston coffee house that used Twitter to build business caught my eye.

An excerpt:

On October 31st, 2008 Sean Stoner (@maslowbeer) was hungry. As a regular customer at CoffeeGroundz he sent the following Twitter to Cohen:

sean

Cohen quickly replied and Sean went through the drive-thru at CoffeeGroundz to pick up his burrito.

coffeeground

This simple exchange got a lot of coverage on Twitter and was hailed as potentially the first time that Twitter had ever been used to place a To-Go Order. Seeing an opportunity, Cohen started taking to-go orders via direct message from any of his Twitter Clientele.

CoffeeGroundz offers free Wi-Fi, plenty of outlets, and they serve beer and wine – making it a cross between a Coffee House and a Lounge. Today, customers can order beverages and tasty bites from the comfort of their seat using Direct Messages to @coffeegroundz. How cool is that? You don’t even have to stop working to walk to the counter and order a coffee.

Hat tip to Texas Coffee People.

(By the way, I think the best place in Lubbock to get coffee is Sugar Brown’s, on 50th Street.  They have a Myspace page, but no Twitter so far as I can tell.)

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Why are gasoline prices so high? (February 2009 version).

February 16, 2009

Michael Giberson

So low, and yet so high.

It seems to be the way consumers feel about gasoline prices these days.  Yes, prices are down compared to a year ago, but everyone knows that crude oil prices have been going down lately while gasoline prices are up from their December 2008 lows.

From The Mercury News:

Crude oil is selling for the low price of under $35 a barrel. The precious black commodity is awash at storage tanks across the country. And drivers from New York to the Bay Area are motoring less and less as the economy continues to sink.

But the price of gas is going up and up and up — to $2.29 a gallon in California on Saturday, 25 cents higher than a month ago and 49 cents more than before Christmas.

What gives?

The Mercury News cites a number of factors, including maintenance work at refiners, mechanical glitches, and “the gradual conversion to summer blends of fuel” as among the factors. Also, the News said, much of the crude oil made into gasoline comes from South America or the Middle East, and prices there are about $10 bbl higher than the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price most frequently cited in the (U.S.) press.

The Associated Press recently ran a story on the same theme, “If price of crude oil is dropping, why is cost of gas rising?“:

Crude oil prices have fallen to new lows for this year. So you’d think gas prices would sink right along with them.

Not so.

On Thursday, for example, crude oil closed just under $34 a barrel, its lowest point for 2009. But the national average price of a gallon of gas rose to $1.95 on the same day, its peak for the year. On Friday gas went a penny higher.

The AP story clarifies further the role that higher priced crudes from elsewhere play in this particular story:

The recession in America has dramatically cut demand for crude oil, and inventories are piling up. So prices for West Texas crude have fallen well below what oil costs from places like the North Sea, Saudi Arabia and South America.

That foreign oil sells in some cases for $10 more per barrel — and that doesn’t even include shipping.

Brent North Sea crude, which feeds some East Coast refineries — and therefore winds up at many gas pumps around America — now costs about $7 more per barrel than the West Texas crude. Deutsche Bank analysts say the trend should continue.

The WTI price normally trades at a premium to other grades, but a host of temporary factors have driven down the price of the WTI benchmark relative to other crudes. So the crude oil price cited most often in the press may not be the price paid for the crude oil that went into gasoline.

So long as crude oil prices stayed in their usual relationship, it didn’t matter much that the crude oil that went into west coast gasoline was from different places than the crude oil going into Gulf Coast gasoline or that reaching east coast refineries.  Refinery utilization is down, too, and other short term factors are in play (see the Styles and Rapier remarks cited below for more.) Over time these differences will tend to sort themselves out, and the normal relationship will return.  In the meantime, crude oil prices and gasoline prices will continue to look disconnected.

See also, Geoff Styles in The Other Stimulus, and Robert Rapier, Why Gas Prices are Rising Again.

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Twitter’s gonna transform professional cycling

February 15, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I just participated in distributed information newsmaking history, and it’s really, really cool. A little background: I’ve been on Twitter for a few months, initially as a way to talk with a couple of friends. But then I found Team Slipstream and Lance Armstrong on Twitter, and from there just kept adding cyclists … now most of those I follow are cyclists (Lance has a serious Twitterdiction, by the way!). Dave Zabriskie, Ivan Basso, Tom Danielson, etc. I am intrigued by the alacrity with which the professional cycling community has taken to Twitter.

One of the regular cycling posters on Twitter is Johan Bruyneel, who is an amazing team director, and directs Team Astana; this season Lance and Levi Leipheimer are two of the riders on Team Astana. Bruyneel is an incredible strategist and tactician. During the stages the race director rides in the team car and works with the riders to give them what they need to do the best job possible on the day.

Today was the first stage of the Amgen Tour of California, and it was grim — cold, rainy, treacherous. I tuned in to watch the coverage on Versus, which was having trouble getting video because the rain was disrupting data transmissions from cameras. At the same time, I had opened Twitter search and searched on the “ATOC” tag, which meant that anyone who was tweeting about the race and put that tag in their tweet would show up in the search. Throughout the race, for over 4 hours, Bruyneel would update his Twitter stream with real-time information from the Team Astana race car. Real, on-the-scene information, right there, in real time.

Wow. Just wow. But it even gets better than that, because there were other folks posting as well, some of whom were spectators on the ground in Santa Rosa too. So the stream was a combination of comments from those of us at home, spectators on the course, and participants like Bruyneel. They filled in info where the broadcast didn’t have any, and some tweets even corrected some mis-information that folks like VeloNews and Cycling News were posting on their race blogs.

This is really, really big. Seriously transformative. Not only is the information content higher, but it actually felt like I was watching the stage with a group of cycling fans in real time. For sports like cycling that don’t have great media coverage and have relatively small fan bases, the ability of fans to coalesce across space has major economic and marketing implications. One of the tweets was from a guy who said that he was following the Twitter search stream from the UK, and that he was loving being able to participate in it.

That’s why someone who’s a virtuoso strategist like Johan Bruyneel is bothering to tweet from the race car during the stage, and why the uber-strategist rider on his team (that would be Lance) encouraged Bruyneel to get on Twitter.

Tomorrow Steep Hill will be providing almost-real-time updates from Bonny Doon, one of my favorite wineries in the hills outside of Santa Cruz: “I was planning to report almost live from Bonny Doon tomorrow with photos and video.”

I can’t remember the last time I was this excited and fascinated by engaging with professional cycling. And it’s the personal communication of the riders and the team directors that are creating that excitement.

Wow. Just. Wow.

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P.J. O’Rourke’s Adam Smith column

February 15, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I hope you’ve all seen P.J. O’Rourke’s Financial Times column from last week on what Adam Smith would have to say about our current economic and financial events. Adam Smith was one of the most astute observes of human nature ever, and applied those insights well to analyses of incentives and political institutions. Our political “leaders” would do well to remember his insights, as O’Rourke applies them:

The idea that The Wealth of Nations puts forth for creating prosperity is more complex. It involves all the baffling intricacies of human liberty. Smith proposed that everyone be free – free of bondage and of political, economic and regulatory oppression (Smith’s principle of “self-interest”), free in choice of employment (Smith’s principle of “division of labour”), and free to own and exchange the products of that labour (Smith’s principle of “free trade”). “Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence,” Smith told a learned society in Edinburgh (with what degree of sarcasm we can imagine), “but peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice.”

How then would Adam Smith fix the present mess? Sorry, but it is fixed already. The answer to a decline in the value of speculative assets is to pay less for them. Job done.

We could pump the banks full of our national treasure. But Smith said: “To attempt to increase the wealth of any country, either by introducing or by detaining in it an unnecessary quantity of gold and silver, is as absurd as it would be to attempt to increase the good cheer of private families, by obliging them to keep an unnecessary number of kitchen utensils.” [440]

We could send in the experts to manage our bail-out. But Smith said: “I have never known much good done by those who affect to trade for the public good.” [456]

And we could nationalise our economies. But Smith said: “The state cannot be very great of which the sovereign has leisure to carry on the trade of a wine merchant or apothecary”. [818] Or chairman of General Motors.

I’m teaching History of Economic Thought this quarter, and part of my pitch to my students for the benefits of the class was that it would give them broader insights into current events and into what constitutes sensible policy recommendations. O’Rourke’s column illustrated that point perfectly. (Note that the bracketed numbers are page references.)

While we’re at it, here are some P.J. O’Rourke quotes that are also relevant to our current flurry of government activity:

When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.

The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.

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Chris Masse: The truth about prediction markets

February 14, 2009

Michael Giberson

At Midas Oracle, Chris Masse spills the truth about prediction markets:

Come to the wonderful world of collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets!… The sun shines bright, the market-generated predictions are vastly superior to polls as election predictors, and the track record of the public prediction markets stretches as far as the eye can see. There are opportunities aplenty in the field of prediction markets, and the trading technology is cheap. Every working enterprise can have its own internal prediction exchange, and inside every exchange, enterprise prediction markets that correctly predict the future of business, which their happy, all-American CEO listens to. Life is good in the magic world of prediction markets… it’s paradise on Earth.

Ha! ha! ha! ha!… That’s what they tell you, anyway… —because they are selling an image. They are selling it thru their vendor websites, vendor conferences, vendor-fed professor interviews on television, and vendor-inspired articles in newspapers and magazines.

The reality check is…

Read the rest at Midas Oracle.

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