Archive for April, 2009

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Pete Leeson: Why failure is valuable

April 7, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Along the same theme from yesterday that other people are writing very sensible things about the folly of our current federal government policies, I draw your attention to Pete Leeson’s excellent op-ed in Friday’s Washington Times. His theme: business failures are a valuable and important part of economic processes, and when we stifle those failures we do ourselves harm because we distort and truncate the reallocation of resources from less-valuable uses to more-valuable uses:

Far from cause for concern, this failure is cause for celebration. When ineffective producers fail, resources committed to producing goods we value less are freed for producing goods we value more. Polaroid’s failure released resources for the production of digital cameras; Commodore Computers’ failure released resources for the production of IBM computers; and Chi Chi’s restaurant’s failure released resources for, well, the production of food that tastes good. Who better to sacrifice the resources required to expand production of the things we want than producers of the things we don’t?

If government prevents failing producers from going out of business, resources get “stuck” in employments where they’re less productive. We can’t have as many of the products we care more about because the means needed to make them remain locked in the manufacture of products we care less about. Society suffers as a result.

We are living with the distortionary incentives of the “too big to fail” and “too important to fail” arguments that we’ve heard daily for the past eight months, and we’ll be paying the costs of these flawed policies for years to come.

Relatedly, Shika Dalmia’s article in Reason today reminds us that “by avoiding bankruptcy, GM only risks trading union demands for federal tyranny”.

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Playing with color schemes

April 6, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Playing with color schemes today … some folks weren’t happy with the light text color of some of the text in the old color scheme, so I’m playing around with alternatives today. If you have a strong opinion about this simple blue-and-green, which keeps the blue-and-green that have been the KP hallmark since 2002, please leave a comment.

That is, for those of you who don’t just read from an RSS reader …

I’m also toying with the idea of putting the blogroll back on, as a static page; I had eliminated it to simplify the look and feel of KP, and because so many of us use a RSS reader nowadays. Please let me know if you have a strong opinion on that too.

And thanks for reading!

UPDATE: Yeah, this feels better, much better. I hope it improves your readability too. I had an informal focus group give me the Blackberry test as well as the desktop test in formulating these changes, so KP can go mobile! [cue excellent Who song ... when I'm mobile, wheee hooo, beep beep!]

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Geek tourism for electric power economists

April 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

Last week I attended the Gulf Coast Power Association‘s spring conference. Very good time. More comments later this week after I have time to catch up. Just a note today on the pre-conference power plant tour featuring the Tenaska Frontier Generating Plant in Shiro, Texas (about 50 north of Houston).

The 830-MW combined-cycle natural gas-fired plant is very efficient (a heat rate in the 7,000s), but what makes the plant most interesting from a economic standpoint is its ability to sell power into the ERCOT market and the Eastern Interconnection simultaneously.  As an article in Power Engineering explains:

The idea for a plant that could be dispatched to either the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid or the Eastern interconnection came to Tenaska Vice President Dave Fiorelli while attending an ERCOT operations subcommittee meeting in 1996. At the meeting, one of the subcommittee members mentioned that a part of CSW’s black start plan for ERCOT involved temporarily connecting a West Texas Utilities’ plant, normally connected to the Southwest Power Pool, to ERCOT . It occurred to Fiorelli that if it is possible to do it on an emergency basis, why couldn’t it be done routinely. To put it another way: Would it be possible to design and build a plant to feed into more than one grid, perhaps even simultaneously? The advantage for a merchant plant could be substantial by providing an independent power facility greater flexibility in reaching the most lucrative markets. (Emphasis added.)

The ERCOT power grid is electrically isolated from the Eastern Interconnection (a collection of interconnected transmission grids covering most of the U.S. and Canadian power systems west of the Rocky Mountains). A small number of DC interties does allow some power to flow between ERCOT and the Eastern Interconnection, but not much power flows relatively speaking. Those limits mean that a generator like Tenaska Frontier can explore arbitrage opportunities between the regions without a lot of competition from others.

And that condition makes the Tenaska Frontier plant an excellent geek travel stop for electric power economists.

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Some Monday morning links

April 6, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Some things catching my attention this morning:

1. The Kauffman Foundation’s Keith Mays reports on his time at the SXSW Interactive conference via Tim Kane at Kauffman’s Growthology blog. SXSW isn’t just a music festival; it’s a focal event for film and for digerati as well. In part he analyzes the role of Twitter, and I thought this observation was quite interesting:

Another way I saw Twitter being used was as a “backchannel” during sessions. While a presentation or conversation was happening on stage, there was also a dialog going on among attendees. Often, during one of the interview sessions, the facilitator would monitor this backchannel and selectively weave a question or comment from the audience into the conversation. This dialog could then continue on after the session was over, particularly if it had been lively or provocative. In this use, Twitter is a very efficient, low overhead technology for encouraging a mix of real and virtual conversation.

2. This NYT op-ed from Richard Moe, president of the National Trust for Historic Preservation, discusses the value of improving the energy efficiency of existing homes instead of tearing them down and building new ones. He argues correctly that renovation and improved energy efficiency can use fewer resources than demolition and new construction. Of course, as president of a nonprofit advocacy group his main incentive-changing weapon of choice is to inveigh against energy inefficiency and to use his public pulpit to implore homeowners to increase their energy efficiency renovations in old homes. His argument would have more impact in changing individual homeowner incentives and reducing energy use if he used his pulpit to argue for meaningful regulatory reform in retail electricity markets. Want a real incentive to insulate this old drafty house? Make electricity service costs more transparent to consumers, and enable them to choose retail products and services that reflect those costs, giving them incentives to reduce their electricity use overall and during peak periods and enabling them to pay the low overnight prices that reflect the low costs of electricity service at that time.

3. The new guard at Common Tragedies (Danny, Andrew, Josh) have been blogging up a storm about carbon offsets. Start with Danny’s 3 April post and follow the links. I’m glad that they are paying attention to this, because it’s a topic of great interest to me. Conceptually it’s great, right? Very Coasean, right? You pay for the harm you create, thus internalizing its cost into your own decision-making. Thing is, carbon offsets are great, except when they’re not. They have transaction costs, enforcement costs, and maintenance costs too, just like all other environmental harm mitigation approaches. My favorite story was when Coldplay was touring to support they X&Y album (which I found distinctly unimpressive, BTW) and they paid for enough trees to be planted to offset the carbon implications of all of their travel, lighting, etc. … or not. Almost all of the trees died, because they had not paid for maintenance. In his post Danny makes the important point that the administrative costs of managing carbon offsets can be large and cumbersome. I would add to his points that they also reinforce the already-too-subtantial self-aggrandizing enlargement incentives within the big federal government. In other words, government-administered carbon offsets are very likely to encroach on individual liberty in ways that I find insupportable. Private companies coming up with credible offsets, and the EPA serving as an information provider on available offsets, is one thing, and a proper public policy approach to offsets would focus on that. But with this Congress and this mood I am skeptical that they are capable of doing anything that reasoned and sensible.

4. I haven’t been writing about federal government policy, financial markets, the stimulus package, etc., largely because I’m a “glass is half full” girl, and I am trying to maintain my sunny demeanor in the face of federal binge-purge uncertainty-inducing policy announcements, increasing debt, rising taxes, and widespread bludgeoning of  our individual economic and civil liberties. I’ve also been forebearing because folks like Don Boudreaux at Café Hayek have been saying things with which I broadly agree. See, for example, his letter to the editor of the WSJ in response to Paul Singer’s argument that “free-marketeers should welcome some regulation”:

First, Mr. Singer ignores the possibility that errors made in the private sector – such as balance sheets leveraged too highly – were artifacts, not of too little government intervention, but of too much.  Double taxation of profits combined with deductibility of interest on debt; implicit government backing of Fannie and Freddie; and (most significantly) the Fed’s monopoly control over the money supply, are just some government policies that might have promoted the great bulk of the private-sector errors that Mr. Singer laments.

Second, even if today’s problems are at root the fault of the market, Mr. Singer writes as if he’s proposing new regulations to an apolitical and unbiased agency, one immune to interest-group pressures and to the weaknesses in human judgment that Mr. Singer himself believes contributed to the market’s implosion.  I dare say that no error in judgment is so dangerous as the one that leads Mr. Singer and others to regard government as being something akin to a god-like institution.

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Recovery is about entrepreneurship

April 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

The Kauffman Foundation offers a video of Tyler Cowen talking about blogging economics and other topics. Cowen wraps up with comments on current economic conditions in the United States:

If there is one point I could get through about the mess we’re in, it’s that even if you think that the government needs to do something proactive, that is a holding action. Recovery is about entrepreneurship.

Coincidentally, Kauffman Foundation president Carl Schramm discusses entrepreneurship and the economy in a profile appearing in the WSJ over the weekend, leading with this quote about “companies too big to fail”:

Carl Schramm doesn’t buy the idea that some businesses are “too big to fail.” That notion, says the president of the Kansas City-based Kauffman Foundation, only creates obstacles for entrepreneurs. Instead, he sees the failure of big companies as the “moment when 1,000 flowers can bloom.”

Both items recommended.

(HT to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution and Chris Masse at Midas Oracle.)

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Spring has sprung, with lamb stew and cinsault

April 4, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Five years ago I wrote this post reviewing the Preston Vineyards 2002 Cinsault, and in it I said that we would drink our second bottle of it with a nice spring lamb stew, a navarin d’agneau, or navarin printanier as Julia Child styles it in my go-to Mastering the Art of French Cooking.

Since then, the spring bottle of Preston Cinsault and the navarin d’agneau have become an annual tradition in the KP household. We herald spring every April with this combination, and tonight’s the night (with apologies for the thinly-veiled Rod Stewart reference!). The lamb is simmering as I type, the potatoes and onions and carrots and turnips and peas are ready to join the lamb in a few minutes, and the bottle awaits the meal. This year we’re drinking the 2007, and it has the silky, juicy, fruity mouthfeel that we’ve always enjoyed in our spring Preston Cinsault ritual. This year’s rendition is more richly jammy than the past few years have been, and it’s quite delicious.

This year I am also making a loaf of traditional Irish soda bread to accompany the stew, taking full advantage of the cultural animal pound that is the U.S. to fuse the French and Irish associations I have with lamb stew into a mutt of a dinner to usher in a new season.

Happy spring!

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The role of universities and taxpayer-funded research in economic growth

April 3, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

In today’s Forbes.com, Sramana Mitra has a column discussing the role of universities and taxpayer funding in innovation that contributes to economic growth. She is a thoughtful and insightful commentator, and I recommend the article, despite having a couple of disagreements with her argument. I do think she overstates the case against innovation arising from market processes in her introduction:

In an ideal world, a capitalist framework would facilitate all the economic progress essential to civilization. Unfortunately, we don’t exist in an ideal world. Innovation, however, is among the areas where capitalism as we know it–private, free market, borderless and without government intervention–fails.

For one thing, “innovation” is a large and amorphous category, and that vagueness makes her general claim less plausible. What exactly is innovation? To condemn the ability of market processes to lead to some notion of the “optimal” amount of innovation requires a more explicit definition and scope. I think a more plausible claim, and one that adds to the persuasiveness of her argument, is that basic science research that has long lead-times and is not directly ex ante connected to some possible commercial product has some public good characteristics, and is therefore more likely to be underprovided via market processes. Note here that I am narrowing the scope of “innovation” to not-obviously-commercializable activities.

Her argument then uses DARPA as an example of the various useful roles that academia, government, and industry can play in generating value-creating innovation, and she makes this statement that is consistent with my framing of the issue above:

But does that mean capitalism is not key to innovation? Absolutely not. Once innovation is ready to be brought to market, it is best for academia and government to wrap it in the right capitalist packaging and hand it over to the market.

It is an intricate dance–this tango between industry and academia–with the government playing DJ in the background. Few have learned to dance it well. MIT, Stanford, Berkeley and Carnegie Mellon belong in an elite list of about a dozen universities that do a truly professional job of consistently bringing university-led innovation to market.

I think this is correct. In fact, I spoke on a panel at Northwestern earlier this week where we tackled precisely these issues. There are several challenges in pulling off the healthy academia-government-industry collaboration that Sramana describes, and I think many of those challenges reflect the difficult political economy that accompanies taxpayer-funded research. One effect of the politicization of such research is the mismatch of the justifiable desire for accountability and low risk with the nature of basic research — much research leads to “non-results”, which from a scientific perspective are still valuable results, but from a political perspective do not necessarily count as meaningful and valuable results. Another effect is the timing mismatch; payback periods on research investment in basic science are typically long, while political cycles are short (2-4-6 years), so the incentive to support research with longer and more unknown timeframes is reduced. Finally, the future-taxpayer debt-funded research funds in the current stimulus package have a short timeframe, 20 months typically, while the funding stream that is most consistent with generating valuable results is longer and slower and less episodic.

Taxpayer-funded research also has crowding out problems, where government funding induces private sources to reduce their funding, and empirically the return on taxpayer investment is lower than the return on private investment in research. In combination with the political economy issues this leads me to prefer private funding on both philosophical and pragmatic grounds, despite the public good characteristics of basic science research (what a surprise!). Not a very popular or plausible stance right now.

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Pride and Prejudice and Zombies!

April 3, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Last week was our spring break, and the KP Spouse and I were in Colorado all week. I spent the entire week off-grid — no computer, no Internet, zip zilch nada, nothing but snow and books and music (and, toward the end of the week, basketball for the KP Spouse and our friend Dean who joined us there). Ironically, I managed to pre-schedule almost daily posts for the week I was on holiday, while this week I haven’t had the time to do any! Oh, the joys of the quarter system … three “first week of class” episodes! But things have calmed down a wee bit, and I am spending the day catching up on writing and correspondence.

Anyway … on our way back to the airport from Breckenridge we spent a few hours burbling around Denver, in two neighborhoods: the Lower Downtown area (LoDo), and South Broadway, where we enjoyed browsing used bookshops. In LoDo we stopped in at the best bookstore I’ve been to in a long time, Tattered Cover. Great old building, lots of seating, wonderful staff recommendations, well-organized and thorough inventory, lots of magazines, café … if I lived in Denver I would spent lots of time and money here!

I didn’t buy any books because my luggage was already bulging, but I was sorely tempted by a few titles, especially Seth Grahame-Smith’s Pride and Prejudice and Zombies! I adore Jane Austen, and like zombies as much as the next person, so the intriguing combination was hard to resist. Then I get home and find that some of my friends who share my tastes have hit on the work at the same time, and then this week at Boing Boing Cory Doctorow wrote about the book:

Never successfully read Pride and Prejudice. Bored to tears by it. I’m not proud of the fact. Plenty of smart people have the utmost respect for the book, and I’m perfectly willing to stipulate that the problem is with me, not with Austen.

But P&P&Z has just too much Austen and not enough zombies. I found myself skimming, skipping larger and larger chunks of text to get to the zombie sequences, desperate to escape the claustrophobic drawing-room chatter of Austen’s characters with a little beheading, disemboweling and derring-do.

I couldn’t finish it. But I expect if you were the kind of person who loves both Austen and zombies, this book would just plain knock your socks off.

[austenevangelist]Oh, honey. Claustrophobic drawing-room chatter? In Austen’s hands drawing-room chatter is metaphorical beheading, disemboweling and derring-do accomplished with subtle irony and gentle wit. That’s precisely the core of the humor of the concept of P&P&Z — on its face the plot and dialogue in Austen is genteel and within strict social guidelines, but the real action is in the tension between the visions, dreams and desires of the protagonists and those constraints. It’s mindful Regency girrrl power, not mindless derring-do.[/austenevangelist]

Now I do regret not buying it and stuffing it into my suitcase!

ETA: This comment on Cory’s post totally wins the thread:

There’s only one literary mashup anyone needs to know, and it’s a single line. “It was half way to Rivendell when the drugs began to take hold.” — Hunter S. Tolkien, “Fear and Loathing in Barad Dur”

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