Archive for June, 2009

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A new paper, and presenting it at conferences this week

June 17, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

My co-author David Chassin and I have a new working paper available at SSRN from the GridWise Olympic Peninsula testbed demonstration project:

Beneficial Complexity: A Field Experiment in Technology, Institutions, and Institutional Change in the Electric Power Industry

This paper presents and analyzes the results of a recent field experiment in which residential electricity customers in Washington State with price-responsive in-home devices could use those devices to change their electricity consumption autonomously. Doing so also required an important institutional change: the regulatory institutions had to change to allow dynamic pricing. Customers could choose a retail pricing contract from a portfolio of contracts, instead of the fixed, regulated retail rate. Here we focus on the results of the real-time contract, under which homeowners participate in a double auction with a market clearing occurring every five minutes. These customers saved money, and their peak demand (and pressure on infrastructure at peak capacity) fell by 15 percent. Moreover, this combination of technology and institutional design enabled decentralized coordination, and we use complexity science to interpret results that show that the real-time market outcomes were those of a self-organizing and scalable complex adaptive system. We also draw policy implications from these results.

I will be presenting this paper at the International Society of New Institutional Economics meeting and the International Association of Energy Economics meeting over the next week. If you’ll be at either conference, I hope to see you there!

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Coal in a world of cheap natural gas

June 15, 2009

Michael Giberson

Natural gas has become cheap enough relative to coal that some gas-fired electric generators are able to underbid baseload coal generators.  Market-based switching from coal power to gas has increased demand for gas by three billion cubic feet per day according to a Merrill Lynch analysis cited in the Wall Street Journal today. Bad for coal companies, but good for electric power consumers. More:

“There basically is no spot market for coal right now,” adds Jim Thompson, managing editor of the Coal and Energy Price Report in Knoxville, Tenn., a coal-industry newsletter. “Coal companies are living off their utility contracts.”

Utilities mostly obtain coal through multiyear contracts. As a result, even though spot coal prices have fallen, prices paid by utilities are expected to rise 2% this year to an average of $2.11 per million BTUs. Next year, the EIA expects coal prices to dip slightly to an average of $1.91 per million BTUs.

Those numbers suggest coal is still about half the price of natural gas. But the numbers can deceive. Gas-fired power plants convert fuel into electricity more efficiently than coal units, and it is cheaper to move natural gas than coal. As a result, gas can still have an advantage over coal even if the commodity cost is higher.

In related analysis, a paper by Maria Kozhevnikova and Ian Lange, forthcoming in the Review of Industrial Organization, explains why contract lengths for coal purchases are decreasing. Short version: “increased alternatives reduces contract duration.”

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Another note on natural gas supply in the US

June 15, 2009

Michael Giberson

Kristen Hays reports on the current natural gas supply conditions in the Houston Chronicle: rig counts down, production remains strong, and natural gas in storage is increasing. The US Department of Energy predicts natural gas consumption will fall 2.2 percent this year and grow slightly in 2010.

While drilling rigs are being shut down, as one analyst observed, when times are hard you shut down the marginal plays first and hang on to the most promising locations. That logic is one reason that production remains strong.

ALSO in the Houston Chronicle, Rob Bradley, Jr. praises ExxonMobil’s strategy of focusing on oil and gas and staying out of renewable energy, despite the call of dissident shareholders who want the company to branch out. Last fall the New York Times ran a profile of Exxon that highlighted this aspect of the company’s strategy and noted the company’s reputation as one of the world’s best managed large companies.

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What are the best books on the economic history of energy technology and development?

June 14, 2009

Michael Giberson

I know we have a few economic historians among our readers. You may be interested in Alexis Madrigal’s blog, Inventing Green, which he describes as research notes for his forthcoming book on the development of energy technology and institutions (previously mentioned here in an earlier post). Recently he wrote:

The deeper I get into the history of energy in America, the more I realize that it’s impossible to examine energy (or green tech) alone. I want to know more about technological diffusion, the systems that constrain or promote tech R&D, the financing systems that allow different types of technology companies to be founded, and (of course) how these factors have impacted the adoption of solar, wind, and geothermal energy.

After a few more comments, he gets to the point; he has assembled a “a small bibliography of economic history and technological change.”

When I say technology here, I’m including the innovations of a social variety, too. Here’s what I’ve got on my reading list for the next couple of weeks.

  • Susan Previant Lee and Peter Passell. A New Economic View of American History. 1979. The kind of quantititative economics that we’ve all come to love. You can win with data.
  • David Edgerton. The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History Since 1900. 2007. “Much of what is written on the history of technology is for boys of all ages. This book is a history for grown-ups of all genders.”
  • Aidan Davison. Technology and the Contested Meanings of Sustainability. 2001. So far, an attack on the “ecomodernist” project, under which Davison would probably file the entire realm of green technology.
  • Eric Higgs, Andrew Light, and David Strong, Eds. Technology and the Good Life? 2000. A lot of thoughts about the philosophy of technology, with a focus on the fruits of Albert Borgmann’s philosophical tree.
  • Enrico Santarelli. Finance and Technological Change: Theory and Evidence. 1995. It’s fascinating how little information I can find about how finance/banking technocrats evaluate technologies that come before them. Yet in modern green tech, they are really the keepers of the keys.
  • Johnathan Hughes. The Governmental Habit Redux: Governmental Controls from Colonial Times to the Present. 1991.
  • Joel Mokyr. Twenty-Five Centuries of Technological Change. 1990. An economic primer on technological change.
  • Daniel Boorstin. The Republic of Technology. 1978. Boorstin’s attempt to understand globalization it seems. With characterstically soaring language. (I’m not complaining.)
  • Nathan Rosenberg. Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics. 1982. Love it. Starts with a historigraphy of technical progress.
  • Paul Stoneman. The Economics of Technological Diffusion. 2002. A textbook. Lots of curves and graphs.
  • David Noble. America by Design: Science, Technology, and the Rise of Corporate Capitalism. 1977.

I’m not familiar with about half of the books, but overall it seems like a pretty good list.

What think ye? Did he miss anything essential?

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A bikey bikey weekend!

June 12, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Will soon be outta here, headed west to lovely Bettendorf, Iowa, for this weekend’s Tour of the Mississippi River Valley (TOMRV) bike ride. 106 miles on Saturday, 90 on Sunday. I intend to be back on Sunday to report that I did ride every.dang.mile. There’s a slight chance of rain both days, with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Please send me your good endurance vibes!

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Water footprint as the next big thing

June 12, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Wednesday’s Christian Science Monitor had an interesting article about burgeoning water scarcity issues:

Move over, carbon, the next shoe to drop in the popular awareness of eco-issues is the “water footprint.”

That’s the word in environmental circles these days. Just as the image of a heavy carbon foot made it possible for the masses to grasp the power of carbon-dioxide emissions, water footprint is the phrase now drawing attention to the impact of human behavior regarding water.

I wonder if people will continue resisting the accurate pricing of water as this issue evolves. We are only starting to chip away at the resistance to the accurate pricing of electricity, and if the Waxman-Markey bill is any indication, we are not going to have incentives and institutional designs in place that enable us to discover the accurate price of carbon any time soon. I would like to be able to be more sanguine about water.

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Will wind energy follow ethanol’s path?

June 11, 2009

Michael Giberson

The ethanol industry is suffering and The Wichita Eagle asks, “Will wind energy follow ethanol’s path?

The answer is: Possibly. It depends on politics, the health of the credit markets and the price of coal, oil and natural gas.

Oil prices are moving up, recently exceeding $70 bbl in NYMEX trading, but gas and coal prices haven’t followed. For ethanol, oil prices are more important; for wind, gas and coal.  Credit markets seem to be opening up a bit, but slowly.  What about politics?

“[Wind power] polls extremely well,” [AWEA policy director Rob Gramlich] said. “Both Republicans and Democrats support it.”

I guess if you can’t be good, it is good to be popular.

HT to the Caprock Plains Wind Energy Association.

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And I thought Texas politics was entertaining…

June 11, 2009

Michael Giberson

Have you been keeping up with the news out of Albany, New York? On Monday, with the support of two Democratic state senators the minority Republicans voted themselves back into the leadership positions. Democrats tried to prevent the maneuver by, among other things, turning off the lights in the Senate chamber, and having failed to prevent the vote, filing lawsuits and locking the Senate chamber doors and refusing to turn over the keys.

The more you read about the story, the better it gets:

  • the move was fomented in part by a billionaire who spent heavily to help the Democrats seize control of the Senate last November and then was “angry to hear they were now planning to raise taxes on the wealthy” (cite);
  • The billionaire, Tom Golisano, reportedly supported candidates he felt would work for a “more open political culture in Albany,” but became frustrated when his substantial financial contributions didn’t seem to get him the full attention of the new Senate leadership when he visited the state capital (cite, cite);
  • New York Governor David Paterson’s first response to the leadership vote was “I will not allow this,” though he has no authority over senate organization (cite);
  • subsequently Paterson urged the senate to settle the leadership dispute and get back to business, arguing that the senators should “think of the lobbyists” who have worked so hard on their issues (cite);
  • one of the defecting Democrats is under indictment for felony assault (cite), the other has been plagued by legal troubles throughout his political career according to a New York Times profile. (cite)

“Send in the clowns,” you think? Don’t bother:

Nearby, amid the crush of camera crews, a clown dispatched to the Capitol by The New York Post added to the carnival atmosphere. (cite)

Who needs to read Christopher Buckley novels when you have real politics like this?

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It’s the end of the school year …

June 11, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

… replete with its reminder of the old aphorism, which I believe is completely accurate: we teach for free, but get paid to grade.

Grading, grading, grading, awash in blue books. Trying to avoid being lured into the procrastination vortices of KP, Twitter, etc.

OK, back to work …

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Solar project at Pearl Brewery in San Antonio

June 10, 2009

Michael Giberson

The Full Goods Building at the Pearl Brewery in San Antonio has installed a solar power system, apparently the largest in Texas. You can find real time information on the system’s power output, current building load, and power consumption from the local utility from the online information kiosk (click the “Current Status” button). The information site also includes an entertaining time-lapse photography video of the installation process and other information about the building.

Pearl_Solar

[Clicking on the image takes you to the Flickr image site, to see the solar power information use the text link above.]

HT to NewsWatch: Energy.

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