Archive for July 8th, 2009

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Geoff Styles on the CFTC’s desire to fix up energy futures markets

July 8, 2009

Michael Giberson

Geoff Styles: Speculation Witch Hunt?

He says he thinks “the CFTC and its supporters in Congress and the administration are barking up the wrong tree, altogether, based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the markets.”

the current determination to clamp down on speculation appears to be based on two hypotheses that are … probably entirely false: First, that in the absence of speculation, oil prices would not have spiked to nearly the degree they did last year and would be much lower today than they are, and second, that a market without speculators–or indeed without any futures trading at all–would be inherently less volatile than one in which those factors are present.

The latter point is easier to dispose of, Styles suggests, but both points are relevant to the current political concerns. He elaborates on both issues.

UPDATE: Here is Craig Pirrong on the same topic, “Now I know how Sisyphus felt.”

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This year for the Tour I’m in the Vande Velde/Garmin cheering section

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Every year the KP Spouse and I pick a favorite rider and team in the Tour de France, and to keep things interesting we don’t pick the same rider and team (this is a household where we deliberately cheer for different English Premiere League and NHL teams too …). While we share in the general enthusiasm about Lance Armstrong’s return and his magnificent work with Livestrong, and we both cheer for all of the American riders and teams (as I mentioned in my earlier TDF post), this year he’s pulling for Saxobank’s Andy Schleck (whom I agree is a wonderful and exciting rider).

Me? I’m pulling for Chicago-suburb-native Garmin-Slipstream leader Christian Vande Velde. After a decade working the team hierarchy as a doméstique (supporting rider) on a variety of teams with many great cyclists, he’s the team leader for Garmin-Slipstream, having finished 4th in the 2008 Tour de France (among other successes). I met Christian at a Vision Quest Coaching event in 2006 (also met Dave Zabriskie, Floyd Landis, and triathlete Jessi Stensland at the same event, which was great; Vision Quest is Robbie Ventura’s coaching business), and since then have followed his career eagerly. The stars all seemed aligned for this year’s Tour, until in the Giro d’Italia on May 11, 2009, he broke several vertebrae and a rib and fractured his pelvis in a crash. Would he ride again at all, let alone riding in the 2009 Tour? Denver’s 5280 magazine has an outstanding article that chronicles the tale.

The first five stages have proven that the answer is a resounding yes; he’s currently ranked 12th, and led his team to a 2nd-place finish in yesterday’s team time trial, which was some of the most thrilling sport I’ve ever watched. Christian’s also keeping a rider’s journal at the New York Times during the Tour, and you can read his first entry on returning from his Giro injuries and his retrospective on yesterday’s team time trial. He’s a frank, eloquent, and compelling writer, and although I am not a sentimental or overly emotional person, I have to admit that the combination of physical endurance, mental discipline, and strength of character and integrity reflected here almost brings me to tears.

It also motivates me to challenge myself more consistently, professionally and athletically. For me, sport is a big part of what I write about as an economist and social scientist — human action, choices, and striving to live life fully in the personal way that you define that fullness.

OK, off to have lunch so I can deliver on some of that this afternoon!

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GE’s light bulb development pipeline

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

As I mentioned earlier this week, incandescent light bulb innovation is occurring. So is LED innovation. As this Engadget post points out, GE is pushing forward on both. Keep it comin’ …

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Health care policy, individual consumption portfolios, and liberty

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Two posts I’ve read this morning about health care resonate for me in combination. The first was Russ Roberts’ discussion of his conversation with a new Walmart employee about wages and benefits, where he notes that

I didn’t get to ask her if she had health care coverage at either job. But the conversation reminds me that people prefer different mixes of cash, retirement, health care and so on.

Which is why the political pressure and the threat of coercion that lead to this kind of result [Walmart's support of an employer health care mandate -ed.] is so dangerous and harmful to human beings and other living things.

Diverse, heterogeneous individuals with their own private, subjective preferences over their consumption, saving, investment portfolio mixes.

On a related note, Doug Bandow writes at Cato @ Liberty about Uwe Reinhardt on health care. Commenting on criticisms of government-provided health care’s rationing of services, Reinhardt points out that rationing is a fundamental function of markets too. He’s technically correct, from a static neoclassical perspective — given a set of resources and unlimited wants, our budget constraints necessitate rationing, and in markets price signals interact with our subjective individual preferences to enable us to allocate our resources optimally.

But Doug makes a deeper point that often gets lost in the technocracy of health care policy:

But Reinhardt leaves liberty out of the equation.  The health care system is a mess, largely because of perverse government incentives through its big health care programs, Medicare and Medicaid, and its tax break for employer-provided insurance.   As a result, we now have a third party payment-dominated system which simultaneously encourages excessive spending and pushes insurers and providers to decide how to “ration” (i.e., limit) care.

What people need is a medical system that allows them to make the basic rationing decisions:  what kind of insurance to buy, what kind of coverage to choose, what kind of trade-offs to make between spending on medicine and spending on other goods and services.

Such decisions are complex and people with little means will need assistance.  But the specific “rationing” decisions–i.e., the inevitable trade-offs–vary dramatically by individual and family preference and circumstance.  Even today’s system allows many people some choice between plans and providers.  The rise in consumer-directed care is a positive development which is expanding the choices available to Americans.

Put another way, and from a Hayekian perspective, who is doing the rationing matters. With government mandates, bureaucrats do the rationing. With a market for health insurance and health care services, individuals do the rationing. Apply the knowledge problem here as Hayek did to the failure of central planning, and you see the analogy that I think is apt.

Just as individual planning generates superior static and dynamic outcomes relative to central planning, individual rationing generates superior static and dynamic outcomes relative to central rationing, because of the knowledge problem and heterogenous agents with diverse preferences and private knowledge of their own preferences. It also honors the precepts of individual liberty.

UPDATED to add the link to Russ’ original post, sorry about that!

UDPATE2: This excellent Ron Bailey post at Reason’s Hit & Run complements my above argument, and includes a link to Shikha Dalmia’s thorough exposure of the fallacies in the current health care policy debate.

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Sources and uses of electric power consumed in the United States

July 8, 2009

Michael Giberson

From the Annual Energy Review by the Energy Information Administration (a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy), a chart showing the sources and uses of electric power:

EIA chart: Electricity Flow,  2008

EIA chart: Electricity Flow, 2008

Via Lou Grinzo at the Energy Collective. Click through on the chart to see a larger version (or get the PDF) from EIA.

The chart is too aggregated to do detailed analysis, but good for some “big picture” looking. Grinzo offers a few comments,  here are two of his remarks that seemed particularly worthy of note: “Conversion losses practically leaps off the screen,” and “Transmission and distribution losses are tiny.” As Grinzo suggests, the conventional view usually gets it backward: mostly ignoring conversion losses and often exaggerating the relevance of line losses. (See Grinzo’s post for the rest of his commentary.)

Cogeneration offers some efficiency benefits by reducing the energy wasted both in conversion and in line losses, but you can’t see that on the chart.  I was surprised to see, in another table in the Annual Energy Review, that the “useful themal output” from combined heat-and-power plants (cogeneration plants) has been falling beginning about 2001. I guess I haven’t been paying attention. Is this due to the expiration of PURPA contracts? Something else? I don’t know.

Here is another chart from the EIA, this showing primary energy consumption by sector (again, click through to the source chart at the EIA for a larger version):

EIA chart: U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008

EIA chart: U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008

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