Archive for July, 2009

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Race report: Trek Women’s Triathlon Wisconsin

July 13, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I took some time off from triathlon in 2008, largely due to my cycling focus in preparation for and in the wake of our mondo Lewis & Clark bike ride. But this year I’m back, and today was my first race of the summer. It was a gorgeous day for a race! Punch line: I had a very good race, which gives me lots of insight into my training.

Trek2009 swim

Race: Trek Women’s Triathlon, Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin

Bib ClockTime Overall DivPl Swim Swimrank Trans1 Bike Bikerank Mph Trans2 Runrank Run Pace
975 01:28:39 344 74 00:16:05 526 00:04:01 00:37:10 161 19.3 00:02:51 650 00:28:30 00:09:11

[Note: ranks are out of the 2544 total participants]

More details below the break …

Read the rest of this entry ?

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Happy birthday Nikola Tesla!

July 10, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Today’s Nikola Tesla’s 153rd birthday, as you can see celebrated in the Google page logo today (Hat tip: D.O.U.G., thanks!). If we owe our modern electricity-enabled civilization to any one scientist, it’s Tesla — alternating current, induction motors, transformers, you name it. Tesla rocks.

And for you 80s music fans, Tesla’s birthday post is yet again a thinly-veiled excuse to link to a great song from a great 80s band — “Tesla Girls”, Orchestral Manoeuvers in the Dark:

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Micro-curtailment

July 9, 2009

Michael Giberson

What is micro-curtailment? “Companies and families that don’t do this will have the ‘Fool’ stamped on their figurative foreheads,” writes Chris Davis at PowrTalk. You don’t want that to happen, do you?  So read Davis’s post.

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Geoff Styles on the CFTC’s desire to fix up energy futures markets

July 8, 2009

Michael Giberson

Geoff Styles: Speculation Witch Hunt?

He says he thinks “the CFTC and its supporters in Congress and the administration are barking up the wrong tree, altogether, based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the markets.”

the current determination to clamp down on speculation appears to be based on two hypotheses that are … probably entirely false: First, that in the absence of speculation, oil prices would not have spiked to nearly the degree they did last year and would be much lower today than they are, and second, that a market without speculators–or indeed without any futures trading at all–would be inherently less volatile than one in which those factors are present.

The latter point is easier to dispose of, Styles suggests, but both points are relevant to the current political concerns. He elaborates on both issues.

UPDATE: Here is Craig Pirrong on the same topic, “Now I know how Sisyphus felt.”

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This year for the Tour I’m in the Vande Velde/Garmin cheering section

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Every year the KP Spouse and I pick a favorite rider and team in the Tour de France, and to keep things interesting we don’t pick the same rider and team (this is a household where we deliberately cheer for different English Premiere League and NHL teams too …). While we share in the general enthusiasm about Lance Armstrong’s return and his magnificent work with Livestrong, and we both cheer for all of the American riders and teams (as I mentioned in my earlier TDF post), this year he’s pulling for Saxobank’s Andy Schleck (whom I agree is a wonderful and exciting rider).

Me? I’m pulling for Chicago-suburb-native Garmin-Slipstream leader Christian Vande Velde. After a decade working the team hierarchy as a doméstique (supporting rider) on a variety of teams with many great cyclists, he’s the team leader for Garmin-Slipstream, having finished 4th in the 2008 Tour de France (among other successes). I met Christian at a Vision Quest Coaching event in 2006 (also met Dave Zabriskie, Floyd Landis, and triathlete Jessi Stensland at the same event, which was great; Vision Quest is Robbie Ventura’s coaching business), and since then have followed his career eagerly. The stars all seemed aligned for this year’s Tour, until in the Giro d’Italia on May 11, 2009, he broke several vertebrae and a rib and fractured his pelvis in a crash. Would he ride again at all, let alone riding in the 2009 Tour? Denver’s 5280 magazine has an outstanding article that chronicles the tale.

The first five stages have proven that the answer is a resounding yes; he’s currently ranked 12th, and led his team to a 2nd-place finish in yesterday’s team time trial, which was some of the most thrilling sport I’ve ever watched. Christian’s also keeping a rider’s journal at the New York Times during the Tour, and you can read his first entry on returning from his Giro injuries and his retrospective on yesterday’s team time trial. He’s a frank, eloquent, and compelling writer, and although I am not a sentimental or overly emotional person, I have to admit that the combination of physical endurance, mental discipline, and strength of character and integrity reflected here almost brings me to tears.

It also motivates me to challenge myself more consistently, professionally and athletically. For me, sport is a big part of what I write about as an economist and social scientist — human action, choices, and striving to live life fully in the personal way that you define that fullness.

OK, off to have lunch so I can deliver on some of that this afternoon!

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GE’s light bulb development pipeline

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

As I mentioned earlier this week, incandescent light bulb innovation is occurring. So is LED innovation. As this Engadget post points out, GE is pushing forward on both. Keep it comin’ …

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Health care policy, individual consumption portfolios, and liberty

July 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Two posts I’ve read this morning about health care resonate for me in combination. The first was Russ Roberts’ discussion of his conversation with a new Walmart employee about wages and benefits, where he notes that

I didn’t get to ask her if she had health care coverage at either job. But the conversation reminds me that people prefer different mixes of cash, retirement, health care and so on.

Which is why the political pressure and the threat of coercion that lead to this kind of result [Walmart's support of an employer health care mandate -ed.] is so dangerous and harmful to human beings and other living things.

Diverse, heterogeneous individuals with their own private, subjective preferences over their consumption, saving, investment portfolio mixes.

On a related note, Doug Bandow writes at Cato @ Liberty about Uwe Reinhardt on health care. Commenting on criticisms of government-provided health care’s rationing of services, Reinhardt points out that rationing is a fundamental function of markets too. He’s technically correct, from a static neoclassical perspective — given a set of resources and unlimited wants, our budget constraints necessitate rationing, and in markets price signals interact with our subjective individual preferences to enable us to allocate our resources optimally.

But Doug makes a deeper point that often gets lost in the technocracy of health care policy:

But Reinhardt leaves liberty out of the equation.  The health care system is a mess, largely because of perverse government incentives through its big health care programs, Medicare and Medicaid, and its tax break for employer-provided insurance.   As a result, we now have a third party payment-dominated system which simultaneously encourages excessive spending and pushes insurers and providers to decide how to “ration” (i.e., limit) care.

What people need is a medical system that allows them to make the basic rationing decisions:  what kind of insurance to buy, what kind of coverage to choose, what kind of trade-offs to make between spending on medicine and spending on other goods and services.

Such decisions are complex and people with little means will need assistance.  But the specific “rationing” decisions–i.e., the inevitable trade-offs–vary dramatically by individual and family preference and circumstance.  Even today’s system allows many people some choice between plans and providers.  The rise in consumer-directed care is a positive development which is expanding the choices available to Americans.

Put another way, and from a Hayekian perspective, who is doing the rationing matters. With government mandates, bureaucrats do the rationing. With a market for health insurance and health care services, individuals do the rationing. Apply the knowledge problem here as Hayek did to the failure of central planning, and you see the analogy that I think is apt.

Just as individual planning generates superior static and dynamic outcomes relative to central planning, individual rationing generates superior static and dynamic outcomes relative to central rationing, because of the knowledge problem and heterogenous agents with diverse preferences and private knowledge of their own preferences. It also honors the precepts of individual liberty.

UPDATED to add the link to Russ’ original post, sorry about that!

UDPATE2: This excellent Ron Bailey post at Reason’s Hit & Run complements my above argument, and includes a link to Shikha Dalmia’s thorough exposure of the fallacies in the current health care policy debate.

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Sources and uses of electric power consumed in the United States

July 8, 2009

Michael Giberson

From the Annual Energy Review by the Energy Information Administration (a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy), a chart showing the sources and uses of electric power:

EIA chart: Electricity Flow,  2008

EIA chart: Electricity Flow, 2008

Via Lou Grinzo at the Energy Collective. Click through on the chart to see a larger version (or get the PDF) from EIA.

The chart is too aggregated to do detailed analysis, but good for some “big picture” looking. Grinzo offers a few comments,  here are two of his remarks that seemed particularly worthy of note: “Conversion losses practically leaps off the screen,” and “Transmission and distribution losses are tiny.” As Grinzo suggests, the conventional view usually gets it backward: mostly ignoring conversion losses and often exaggerating the relevance of line losses. (See Grinzo’s post for the rest of his commentary.)

Cogeneration offers some efficiency benefits by reducing the energy wasted both in conversion and in line losses, but you can’t see that on the chart.  I was surprised to see, in another table in the Annual Energy Review, that the “useful themal output” from combined heat-and-power plants (cogeneration plants) has been falling beginning about 2001. I guess I haven’t been paying attention. Is this due to the expiration of PURPA contracts? Something else? I don’t know.

Here is another chart from the EIA, this showing primary energy consumption by sector (again, click through to the source chart at the EIA for a larger version):

EIA chart: U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008

EIA chart: U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008

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Pickens new plan: Not to build the world’s largest wind power farm

July 7, 2009

Michael Giberson

[UPDATE: Pickens now says he is delaying, not dropping plan to build his wind farm.]

Boone Pickens is dropping his plan to build a huge, 4,000 MW wind power farm in the northeast corner of the Texas Panhandle.  Among the reasons: his plan to build his own transmission line fell through, the transmission lines planned under the state’s CREZ process won’t go quite the way he wants, the credit crunch has impeded financing, and low natural gas prices have dropped electric power prices in the Texas markets Pickens planned to sell into.

From the Dallas Morning News (link above):

Shortly after announcing the plan, Pickens ran into roadblocks. Natural gas prices took a dive, bringing electricity prices down with them, and making it difficult to finance a new wind farm.

“You had them standing in line to finance you when natural gas was $9″ per million British thermal units, he said. “Natural gas at $4 doesn’t have any people trying to finance you.”

But, he said, he’s lined up financing.

He couldn’t easily line up a transmission line.

He still has a substantial number of turbines on order from General Electric, so now his company is looking around for new homes for the turbines. They may end up in a dramatically scaled down wind farm in the area originally planned (he has contracts to develop wind power on about 200,000 acres in the area), or on other sites in Texas or points north.

See also similar reports in the New York Times Green Inc., Washington Post, and the Associated Press.

ASIDE ADDED: Hey Boone, if you’re feeling charitable, or just have more turbines showing up than you can put to good use, I know of a university-based wind power research project to be built in the Texas Panhandle that might be able to use a few good turbines.  Call me.

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CFTC to consider position limits on energy futures contracts

July 7, 2009

Michael Giberson

The chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Gary Gensler, has announced that the agency will hold a series of meetings in July and August to consider how it can use its existing statutory authority to “ensure the fair, open and efficient functioning of futures markets.” The first of the meetings will focus on “whether federal speculative limits should be set by the CFTC to all commodities of finite supply, in particular energy commodities, such as crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, gasoline and other energy products.”

The New York Times presents the story as a reaction to swings in oil prices in recent months and as “part of a broader shift toward tougher government oversight under President Obama.” The cynical voice inside my head suggests that only when oil prices swing upwards do federal regulators get concerned about speculation and “market integrity.” BTW, I’m not sure what “market integrity” is, exactly, but it sounds like something good so we probably want more of it.

Admittedly, oil prices have been volatile in recent months (as discussed here yesterday), but what theory and evidence suggests that speculative limits set by the CFTC would make oil prices less volatile.  I think it reasonable to believe that much of the volatility in the market simply reflects general uncertainty about the immediate and medium-term future of the economy as a whole and the oil industry in particular.  If this is the case, wouldn’t dampening market signals in futures markets just “shoot the messenger” while at the same time hampering the ability of the futures market to help resolve that uncertainty?

Banning futures trading in onions – something the United States did back in the late 1950s – was intended to reduce price volatility in onion markets.  Evidence is that it didn’t work.  I’m not familiar with all the details of the literature on futures trading in agricultural products, so I wonder if there is any evidence that “market integrity” has been improved by the use of limits on speculative holdings.

In his statement, Gensler also announced upcoming changes to the agency’s weekly Commitment of Traders report.

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