http://knowledgeproblem.com/2009/08/26/looking-for-a-good-forecast/ Commentary on Economics, Information and Human Action Mon, 21 May 2012 15:20:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ http://knowledgeproblem.com/2009/08/26/looking-for-a-good-forecast/#comment-9261 Fri, 28 Aug 2009 12:32:02 +0000 http://knowledgeproblem.com/?p=5298#comment-9261 [...] public pronouncements – they usually are not specified in a manner clear enough for testing (perhaps with good reason).  To make a meaningful wager, the principals will have to be more specific on issues like [...]

]]> http://knowledgeproblem.com/2009/08/26/looking-for-a-good-forecast/#comment-9249 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:15:37 +0000 http://knowledgeproblem.com/?p=5298#comment-9249 Yes, Tetlock gets it. These so called “expert forecasters” with their counter-factual thinking are responsible for a lot of what’s wrong with the U.S.

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