Archive for September 4th, 2009

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Does the Wall Street Journal employ anyone who understands energy markets? Three rejoinders

September 4, 2009

Michael Giberson

In Grist, Adam Browing asks, “Does the Wall Street Journal employ anyone who understands energy markets?“  Browning’s question and his answer seem just a little off, as I’ll discuss below, but first an excerpt from Browning:

Actually, I think they do.  I think Keith Johnson knows quite a bit about energy markets.  Which makes this hit job on solar subsidies, published before the Senate considers national renewable energy legislation, so disturbing.

After chronicling the problems of the Spanish solar industry, the article goes on to say:

“Clean-energy skeptics, however, point to Spain as a cautionary tale of a government policy … with disastrous consequences.  … California and New Jersey, which lead the U.S. in solar power, are among states that have used subsidies similar to the ones in Spain to make solar power more attractive”

This is in fact incorrect.

Spain used a singular policy, a fixed price, standard offer contract known as a feed-in tariff.

California, on the other hand, has several different policy mechanisms, and each one is market-based.  They look nothing like Spain at all.

My first reaction: Browning isn’t asking about energy markets, per se, but the design of energy subsidies.  Really he complains about the WSJ‘s characterization of public policy tools.  Browning is director of The Vote Solar Initiative and a former EPA official, so I’d expect him to be aware of various environmental policy tools.  Energy markets – maybe not so much.

My second reaction: Does he really say that California’s policies look nothing at all like Spain’s feed-in tariffs, even though one of California’s policies is a feed-in tariff?  He describes it as a market-based feed-in tariff later in this very post, and in another post at Grist he says it is “kind of like a feed-in tariff, but different.”  So I guess that is it: it is “kind of like a feed-in tariff,” but nothing at all like Spain’s feed-in tariff.

Huh?

Then he trumpets the fact that “most” of the recent utility contracts signed by California utilities with solar power providers (with the aim of complying with the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard mandate) have been “under the price of natural gas.” He repeats this claim again –  “clean energy, cheaper than natural gas” — and again — “Solar is getting cheap—cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives—and Congress has nothing to fear by getting aggressive on clean energy.”

But the contract he offers a helpful link to, between PG&E and First Solar, clearly describes that part of the project plan is to cash in on Federal subsidies for solar power projects.  In addition, the contract clearly states that the project is eligible for “above-market funds (‘AMFs’)”, which is California regulatory-speak for a pool of money available to help utilities meet RPS mandates when proposed projects are more expensive than other alternatives in the market. In fact, the reference point isn’t actual fossil fuel project proposals presented in actual market competition but rather a “Market Price Referent” established in regulatory processes.

My third reaction: This is “cheaper” only if we ignore the subsidies.

[Separately, on The Vote Solar Initiatives' "four key buttons that must be pushed in order to make the [solar power] market work”, I’d say only “(2.) Standardized interconnection procedures” is a clear winner.  The Spain example discussed by the WSJ shows some limits of policy (1.), a kind of demand-push-assume-economies-of-scale-follow approach.  “3. Net Metering” and “4. Fair Rate Design” are just attempts at providing distributed, small subsidizes through regulated rate structures.

In my view we can’t subsidize the market into becoming more efficient.  Yes, their are problems associated with fossil fuel use.  Better to identify the externalities associated with generating technologies actually causing third-party harm, and push for policies which get the parties responsible to pay for the harm.  Wasting resources will not save the earth.]

[HT to Keith Johnson of the WSJ's Environmental Capital]

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Friday football notes from Chris Dillow

September 4, 2009

Michael Giberson

At Stumbling and Mumbling Chris Dillow ruminates on “Norms, agency, and competition,” which is just some fancy econo-speak for a post about why football coaches prefer conventional strategies that reduce the chance of their team winning.  Dillow notes David Romer’s work (via James Kwak) on American football, which shows coaches punt too often on fourth down, and research by Christian Grund and Oliver Gurtler on “proper football” (Dillow’s term), which shows coaches in the Bundesliga too often add an attacking player when down a goal even though it reduces their chance of winning.

For more on Romer’s work, see this article in Contingencies (a magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries).  Related, “Never Punting,” a guest post at Football Outsiders.

Dillow notes the two responses are both the conventional approach, but observes that in American football the convention favors an overly conservative choice while in proper football (I’ll accept Dillow’s terminology) the convention favors a too risky approach.

For Dillow, “The question is: why? Is it because coaches are ignorant of the statistics and so follow herd mentality?” He doesn’t offer an answer, just a good question.  It could be that the outside analysts are wrong, and coaches right, but then there should be a problem in the analysis to point to. Is there such a problem?  (The Contingencies article notes that Texas Tech Red Raider coach Mike Leach is among coaches with a reputation for aggressive action on fourth down, but adds that even he doesn’t go for it as often as the statistics recommend.)

Interesting topics as the American football season gets underway, and most proper football leagues just underway.

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The trouble with two-handed economists

September 4, 2009

Michael Giberson

An economist is quoted in Platts’ Megawatt Daily commenting on a proposal within ERCOT to apply the same performance standards to wind farms as apply to other generators:

On the one hand, it is desirable to have all market players working under the same rules, but on the other hand, rules are usually made with the existing status quo in mind, and when new technologies come along, they don’t always fit neatly with the pre-existing rules.

That certainly does sound like an economist:

  • Stereotypical “On the one hand”/”on the other hand” phrasing? Check.
  • Long, complicated wording of point without much content? Check.
  • Bonus for more than 40 words in a sentence? Check.
  • Double bonus for using five commas in a sentence? Check.

Yes, unfortunately is looks like I was quoted correctly.  At least they spelled my name right and mentioned my employer: “Michael Giberson, an economist at the Texas Tech University Center for Energy Commerce.”

Any publicity is good publicity, right?

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New oilfield shifts supply curve, but slowly

September 4, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

This Marketplace story from Wednesday does a really good job of explaining the fundamental economics of new oil field discovery. The context for the story is BP’s discovery of a new oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, one of the largest discoveries in the past two decades. Part of the challenge, though, is that the field is 250 miles out from shore, and six miles down from the bottom. Six miles. That’s a very, very long way to drill, right at the upper edge of feasible drilling depths. This FT article provides a good summary of the discovery and the likely consequences, including a good table of other recent discoveries. BP’s stock price has risen substantially as a result of this discovery.

High oil prices induce exploration such as the activity leading to this discovery. Oil field discoveries shift the supply curve out, leading to higher output and lower prices. But the technical challenge of drilling six miles through the ocean floor means that this oil will take quite some time to get to market, perhaps a decade. Plus, as the Marketplace story indicates, although it is a big discovery it is still not that big relative to global consumption levels, so the outward shift will be slow and small relative to global consumption.

For those of you teaching principles/intro this fall, this is a good example to use to illustrate supply shifts.

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