Archive for October, 2009

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Calling the next bubble: is there currently a “dollar-led asset bubble”?

October 30, 2009

Michael Giberson

The list of people who agreed, after the fact, that yes there was a {internet company | real estate | … | tulip bulb} price bubble is frequently longer than the list of people who publicly announce a bubble in unequivocal terms in advance of a crash.  But here you have someone willing to stick their neck out:

“It seems quite clear to us that the (Nymex) futures market is currently part of an dollar-led asset bubble,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland.

FT Energy Source provides some context from Jakob:

Remember the days when hurricanes and geo-political events made oil fly?

Well, according to Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix, those days — for the time being at least — should be forgotten. The correlations between the Dow, the dollar and oil are now so well set, traders simply can’t afford to ignore them.

FT Energy Source quotes from an unnamed source document (but Petromatrix produces subscriber-only reports and I assume it is from one of these; emphasis added by FT):

WTI is still not able to break away from its pure correlation to the exogenous markets of Dollar and Equities. For the last two days WTI and the Dow Futures have run an R square of 0.9 on the intraday 10 minutes and at such ratio it is just possible to beat the theme of purely trading the Dow on oil futures.

I’m not sure I’d stake too much on a two-day regression correlation.  More:

It does not make sense per se but that is the way it is and not trading that theme would only be a proposition to provide liquidity to those who are. The problem remains that the real economy works on different principles than computer games and the current asset correlation would not allow an economy recovery to materialize. At current correlations the Dow at 11′000 would translate in WTI at 100 $/bbl which will hurt consumer confidence and demand and cap the recovery.

Here we extrapolate out from our two-day correlation up to a 11,000 point Dow – a level we haven’t seen for a year and may not see for a while longer.  I’m no statistical genius, but we seem to be forecasting pretty far out of sample.  Analytically, it makes me nervous.

The bubble statement comes next:

It seems quite clear to us that the WTI futures market is currently part of a dollar-led asset bubble and irrespective of the oil fundamentals the next input that will be decisive in the direction of oil prices will be the Fed meeting of next week (November 3rd and 4th ). No action is currently expected from the Fed, but it must be also realizing the across asset bubble in formation and at one stage it will have to decide if it wants to start deflating it or letting it run at the risk of having a burst that it can not handle later on.

It isn’t quite clear to me whether the the dollar-led asset bubble conclusion hangs on any evidence more substantial that the two-day price correlation.  Color me unpersuaded (unless it turns out to be true, of course, in which case I will claim to be among the cognoscenti from the beginning on this whole new dollar-led asset bubble thing).

N.B.: I’m not disputing the value of the larger analysis from which these quotes were ripped by FT Energy Source, which I haven’t seen, just gently poking fun at the idea of trading oil futures based on two-day correlations in prices.  Since I am not a trader and not familiar with real-world trading analytics, it may be that I’m entirely off base and two-days worth of 10-minute data is great empirical stuff.

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In principle I’m in favor of spending money on economists

October 29, 2009

Michael Giberson

George Soros has promised to spend $5 million a year for 10 years to support an Institute for New Economic Thinking to be hosted at Central European University in Budapest.  According to the INET website, the Institute will make research grants, convene symposia, and establish a journal. As part of the announcement, Soros said:

The entire edifice of global financial markets has been erected on the false premise that markets can be left to their own devices, we must find a new paradigm and rebuild from the ground up. I decided to sponsor INET to facilitate the process. I hope others will join me.

I’d be surprised if we could find any significant part of the “global financial market” that wasn’t thoroughly entangled with law, regulation and politics, so I’m not sure which edifice he is talking about or where it has been erected. Furthermore, the idea that we can discard an existing social system, “find a new paradigm and rebuild from the ground up”, strikes me as intellectual arrogance of a very high order.

But he’s going to spend a lot of money on economists, and in any case I accept the premise that philanthropists should largely be left to their own devices, so I say he should go for it.  It’s Soros’s money – largely built up from participating in that edifice of global financial markets, I understand – and he may as well spend it this way as on fancy cars or the Center for American Progress.

(But whatever you think of economics, economists, or heterodox viewpoints, it seems odd to characterize winners of the Nobel price in economics and other distinguished economists as having been “marginalized” in the profession, as Michael Hirsch does in this Newsweek story on the INET announcement when he mentions the board of advisers.  Yes, yes, pity the poor economist who was “marginalized” into tenured faculty position at some of the top universities in the world: Cal-Berkeley, Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford and Cambridge.  In addition to the Nobel Prize, we have John Bates Clark awardees, former members of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and so on.  The INET board of advisers is a collection of talented and honored members of the profession.  Hirsch is discovering victims who perhaps didn’t notice their victimization during the recent spell of “free market fundamentalism” Hirsch observes in economics.)

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Unfair prices and moral progress

October 29, 2009

Michael Giberson

Unfair Prices

Daniel Little, at Understanding Society, asks about “Fair Prices?“  In exploring the topic he draws some upon E.P. Thompson’s studies of the English working class:

E. P. Thompson’s work on early modern Britain reminds us that there was a “moral economy of the crowd” that profoundly challenged the legitimacy of the market; that these popular moral ideas specifically and deeply challenged the idea of market-defined prices for life’s necessities; and that the crowd demanded “fair prices” for food and housing (Customs in Common: Studies in Traditional Popular Culture). The moral economy of the crowd focused on the poor — it assumed a minimum standard of living and demanded that the millers, merchants, and officials respect this standard by charging prices the poor could afford. And the rioting that took place in Poland in 1988 over meat prices or rice riots in Indonesia in 2008 are reminders that this kind of moral reasoning isn’t merely part of a pre-modern sensibility.

This kind of fairness reasoning addresses only outcomes.  But in the case of $4/gallon gasoline last year in the United States, he found other kinds of moral reasoning involved:

And what about that other necessity of life — gasoline? Public complaints about $4/gallon gas were certainly loud a year ago. But they seem to have been grounded in something different — the suspicion that the oil companies were manipulating prices and taking predatory profits — rather than an assumption of a fair price determined by the needs of the poor.

Reasoning about unfair prices

Sarah Maxwell sums up a great deal of work from marketing, psychology, and economics about fairness in pricing in her book The Price is Wrong.  Generally speaking, she observes that when people are faced with a price that violates expectations in a way disadvantageous to them (a consumer faced with an unexpectedly high price, a producer faced with an unexpectedly low price), they feel distress which motivates inquiry into the reasons for the unexpected price.

In Maxwell’s telling, this inquiry leads to evaluation of the social fairness of the price, first to consider the fairness of the outcome and if that isn’t satisfying then to consider the process which lead to the outcome.  This two-step process then considers issues of distributional fairness then procedural fairness.

Returning to Little’s comments, the first quoted cases seem directed at distributional issues, while the gasoline example draws attention to procedural issues.  That is to say, gasoline consumers confronted with $4 gasoline reacted by suspecting that somehow someone cheated – violated fair procedures – and that the cheating resulted in an unfair price.  Little mentions oil companies as targets of suspicion but speculators and other investors also got prominent mention at the time.

Little observes that contemporary Americans seem willing to accept a relatively broad range of prices and wages despite the varying distributional outcomes.  For many Americans, for example, so long as wages seem somewhat connected to market-based reasoning – for example, what companies need to pay to attract top talent – then the wage is at least tolerated even when very high.

[Admittedly the compilation of evidence is not systematic, and bears examination, but it comports with my prior beliefs.  I'd welcome pointers to systematic inquiry on this topic.]

Moral Progress?

So, and here I know I’m trampling over a host of problematic issues that ought to be examined carefully, I wonder whether this recourse to procedural rather than distributive reasoning in reaction to distressing prices is evidence of moral progress.

I realize the concept of moral progress itself is problematic.  For my own thinking on the issue, I find Jesse Prinz’s discussion of the concept in his book The Emotional Construction of Morals to be reasonably satisfying.  To quote just one line out of his final chapter (Ch. 8, “Moral Progress”), “We can assess moral systems by asking how well they are suited to providing lives that we would find desirable.”  (p. 299)  This isn’t a knock-down argument in favor of  the idea of moral progress, just one line out of a chapter summing up a book-length examination of morality.  The point is only that moral beliefs can by examined and judged, determined to be better or worse, and therefore moral progress can be assessed.

My question, then, is this: “Does recourse to procedural rather than distributional reasoning when confronted by distressing prices signal moral progress?”

(HT to Mark Thoma for the link to Little.)

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Melissa Thomasson on This American Life on health insurance

October 28, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

The NPR Planet Money folks do a great job of communicating complicated economic ideas with more nuance and sophistication than any other media folks around. The most recent episode of This American Life is an outstanding example:

392: Someone Else’s Money

This week, we bring you a deeper look inside the health insurance industry. The dark side of prescription drug coupons. A story about Pet Health Insurance, which is in its infancy, and how it is changing human behaviors—for example, if you have the pet health insurance, you bring your pet to the vet more often, and the vet makes more money and…well, you can see the parallels. And insurance company jargon, frighteningly decoded.

Overall it was a very good analysis of various aspects of health insurance. In particular, in Act 2 they interviewed Melissa Thomasson, an economic historian who teaches at my alma mater (yay!), and who is the foremost expert on the history of the health care and health insurance industries in the 20th century. Even if you don’t listen to the rest of the show, Melissa’s contribution is more than worth your time and attention; she explains the evolution of employer-provided health insurance more clearly than I’ve ever heard anyone do before. Both Melissa and the hosts draw the conclusion, with which I agree, that employer-provided health insurance is, at best, “questionable”. It’s an absolute must-listen.

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Teece and Sidak on dynamic competition

October 27, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Over at Truth on the Market, Josh Wright has organized a forum for discussing whether or not the U.S. federal merger guidelines used by the DOJ and FTC need to be revised, to accompany the public comment process on the question that the agencies have initiated. The commenters are all heavy hitters in antitrust, and so far the remarks have been insightful and thought-provoking. I particularly appreciated the contribution from David Teece and Gregory Sidak on dynamic competition, which included this observation:

Put succinctly, competition policy rooted in static economic analysis sees the policy goal as minimizing the Harberger (deadweight loss) triangles from monopoly. A new competition policy, recognizing the special power of dynamic competition, would advance the availability of new products and the co-creation of new markets that allows latent demand (and hence new amounts of consumer surplus associated with new demand curves) to be realized by consumers. It would also recognize cost savings flowing from innovation as an indicator of likely future consumer welfare gains. Put differently, the focus of a revised competition policy and merger-guideline framework would still very much be on the consumer, but it would be future-oriented and would recognize that certain business practices might lead to market creation (or at least co-creation) that would yield new demand curves with large gains in consumer surplus (because demand for new products could be satisfied). The minimization of Harberger deadweight loss triangles would be a secondary focus. Where minimizing Harberger triangles today stands in the way of creating new and significant future demand curves, a new competition policy would likely favor the future and recognize the welfare benefits associated with creating or co-creating new markets.

Note how relevant this point is to regulatory policy. I could do a global search-and-replace for “competition policy” with “regulatory policy” in the above excerpt, and it would almost entirely represent my thinking on the incorrectly static nature of regulatory policy in electricity.

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Taxpayer dollars to support utility smart grid expenses

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Rebecca Smith reporting in the Wall Street Journal, “Obama to Name ‘Smart Grid’ Projects“:

The Obama administration is expected Tuesday to name 100 utility projects that will share $3.4 billion in federal stimulus funding to speed deployment of advanced technology designed to cut energy use and make the electric-power grid more robust.

When combined with funds from utility customers, the program is expected to inject more than $8 billion into grid modernization efforts nationally, administration officials said. … The Department of Energy said grants of $400,000 to $200 million will lead to the installation of at least 18 million advanced digital meters, which should bring the nation’s total to about 40 million, or enough to cover one-quarter to one-third of U.S. homes….

Energy Department officials stressed, in a press briefing Monday evening, that consumers will benefit from the investments. New meters and energy monitoring systems will give consumers better information to manage their energy use, and make it easier for power companies to use more renewable energy. Electricity from wind turbines or solar power systems tends to come in uneven bursts — when the wind is strong or the sun bright. A digital grid would be better able to handle those ups and downs, proponents of the investments say.

Energy Department officials said that they received more than 400 applications and requests for more than $17 billion in funding assistance.

One question that’s still unanswered is whether consumers in states like California and Texas, where utilities are already installing millions of smart meters, could wind up being penalized, in effect, because those states moved forward before stimulus funds were offered.

If the meters allow consumer access to the data, work interactively with the consumer’s appliances and home energy management devices, and support more advanced rate structures, then eventually consumers will benefit.

The speed at which consumer’s see benefits will depend on technology and policy choices of utilities and state retail electricity policies. I suspect that the competitive retail marketplace of Texas will shine, with or without federal support.

UPDATE: The list of 100 awardees included several projects in California and in Texas (both in ERCOT and in the non-ERCOT parts of the state).  The U.S. Department of Energy also provides a map.

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McArdle on the search for financial villians; Indiviglio on electric cars and power costs

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Worth reading: Megan McArdle, “The Search for Financial Villains Founders,” at The Atlantic: Business Channel. Apparently, damning remarks taken out of context from emails are not so damning when considered within the original context.

On the other hand, I’m not so convinced by the earlier post at The Atlantic Business Channel by Daniel Indiviglio, which asserts “Electric Car Will Increase Power Costs” (discussing this Bloomberg story, “California Electric-Cars Push May Raise Power Costs.” Notice Bloomberg’s “may raise” becomes the Atlantic’s “will increase.”). The primary point made is that utilities anticipate needing to spend a lot of money to adapt the grid to accommodate vehicle recharging, which means that utilities will be asking regulators for permission to recover more revenue through regulated rates.

But if electric car owners are paying for the power they use, and those payments cover the costs associated with providing vehicle charging services, why should rates go up?  And if, in fact, the smart grid and the electric car are a match made in enviro-heaven, and therefore the average system use rate increases, then average rates should fall.

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More post-season tournament design issues: MLS tiebreakers

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

For DC United fans, the MLS season is over.  While some fans contemplate coaching and roster changes, a few of us are still scratching our heads about the MLS tiebreaker rules and the complications presented by the final weekend of play (which had five teams angling for two remaining post-season positions. See here for an attempt to list them all, and an updated list.  See here for commentary.  Here a fan calls upon MLS to “stop the madness.”)

The combination of outcomes over the weekend put one of the five teams (New England, which improbably won its game) clearly over the others and one (Dallas, which lost its game) out of the running.  Three (Colorado, DC United, and Real Salt Lake) were tied for the final position and the tie breaker favored Real Salt Lake, which advanced to post-season play.

However, had New England lost, the situation gets interesting.  In this case, the tie breaking rules among Colorado, DC, and RSL would send Colorado and RSL into the playoffs.  However, if Dallas would have tied rather than lost its match, the tie breaking rules among Colorado, Dallas, DC, and RSL would have sent DC and RSL into the playoffs.

This interactive effect seems (at least to me) to violate an intuition about how these sorts of things should work.  Either DC was a better team than Colorado over the season or it was not, and whether Dallas won or lost against some another team in their final match should have little bearing on whether or not DC was better than Colorado during the season.

The intuition I’m talking about has been formalized in economic theory as the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” (IIA) principle. Formally:

If A is preferred to B out of the choice set {A,B}, then introducing a third alternative X, thus expanding the choice set to {A,B,X}, must not make B preferable to A.*

In this case: If Colorado is preferred to DC out of the set {Colorado, DC, RSL}, then introducing a fourth alternative Dallas, thus expanding the set to {Colorado, Dallas, DC, RSL}, should not make DC preferable to Colorado.  But the rules would have worked in just this way, had New England lost its final match.

Can this problem be fixed?  Why not the way that the professionals in Europe do it: first recourse in the event of a tie is to goal differential over the full season, then to total goals scored.

Sadly, such a rule would not have helped DC this season the way our defense gave up goals.  Is it too late to get Ryan Nelsen back at central defense?

*TECHNICAL NOTE: The formulation is stated in the simpler individual choice form, but the MLS tiebreaking rules may be seen more as a social choice mechanism.  Perhaps some form of Arrow’s impossibility theorem arises, meaning I’m unlikely to see a fully satisfying tiebreaking rule.  However, it does seem that goal differential avoids violating IIA.

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Calomiris on EconTalk

October 27, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

If you aren’t listening to EconTalk (and you should be, it’s wonderful!), you will miss Russ Roberts talking with Charlie Calomiris about financial crises.

Truly, simply, unequivocally outstanding. Charlie brings the perspective of an economic historian along with his prodigious background in macroeconomic theory and his deep institutional knowledge about banking history. Almost everything that I know about macroeconomic history I learned from Charlie, and I can’t recommend his insights to you highly enough.

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Where does lithium come from, anyway?

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Joshua Keating, in Foreign Policy, offers a photo essay on lithium extraction in Bolivia. Keating said:

Bolivia hopes its lithium treasure can pull it up from the bottom rungs of the global economy, but as countries throughout the developing world have learned the hard way, resource wealth can just as easily lead to corruption, mismanagement, and more misery for the world’s neediest people. Lithium may very well be the secret to reducing the world’s disastrous dependence on oil, but that doesn’t mean a new “resource curse” can’t take its place.

FP says the “Fifty to 70 percent of the world’s supply” is located in just one spot in Bolivia, but that claim is higher than I see other places.  In any case, over 80 percent of the world’s production of lithium in 2008 came from three other countries: Argentina, Australia, and Chile.

HT to the Texas Energy and Environment blog.

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