Archive for October 27th, 2009

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Teece and Sidak on dynamic competition

October 27, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Over at Truth on the Market, Josh Wright has organized a forum for discussing whether or not the U.S. federal merger guidelines used by the DOJ and FTC need to be revised, to accompany the public comment process on the question that the agencies have initiated. The commenters are all heavy hitters in antitrust, and so far the remarks have been insightful and thought-provoking. I particularly appreciated the contribution from David Teece and Gregory Sidak on dynamic competition, which included this observation:

Put succinctly, competition policy rooted in static economic analysis sees the policy goal as minimizing the Harberger (deadweight loss) triangles from monopoly. A new competition policy, recognizing the special power of dynamic competition, would advance the availability of new products and the co-creation of new markets that allows latent demand (and hence new amounts of consumer surplus associated with new demand curves) to be realized by consumers. It would also recognize cost savings flowing from innovation as an indicator of likely future consumer welfare gains. Put differently, the focus of a revised competition policy and merger-guideline framework would still very much be on the consumer, but it would be future-oriented and would recognize that certain business practices might lead to market creation (or at least co-creation) that would yield new demand curves with large gains in consumer surplus (because demand for new products could be satisfied). The minimization of Harberger deadweight loss triangles would be a secondary focus. Where minimizing Harberger triangles today stands in the way of creating new and significant future demand curves, a new competition policy would likely favor the future and recognize the welfare benefits associated with creating or co-creating new markets.

Note how relevant this point is to regulatory policy. I could do a global search-and-replace for “competition policy” with “regulatory policy” in the above excerpt, and it would almost entirely represent my thinking on the incorrectly static nature of regulatory policy in electricity.

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Taxpayer dollars to support utility smart grid expenses

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Rebecca Smith reporting in the Wall Street Journal, “Obama to Name ‘Smart Grid’ Projects“:

The Obama administration is expected Tuesday to name 100 utility projects that will share $3.4 billion in federal stimulus funding to speed deployment of advanced technology designed to cut energy use and make the electric-power grid more robust.

When combined with funds from utility customers, the program is expected to inject more than $8 billion into grid modernization efforts nationally, administration officials said. … The Department of Energy said grants of $400,000 to $200 million will lead to the installation of at least 18 million advanced digital meters, which should bring the nation’s total to about 40 million, or enough to cover one-quarter to one-third of U.S. homes….

Energy Department officials stressed, in a press briefing Monday evening, that consumers will benefit from the investments. New meters and energy monitoring systems will give consumers better information to manage their energy use, and make it easier for power companies to use more renewable energy. Electricity from wind turbines or solar power systems tends to come in uneven bursts — when the wind is strong or the sun bright. A digital grid would be better able to handle those ups and downs, proponents of the investments say.

Energy Department officials said that they received more than 400 applications and requests for more than $17 billion in funding assistance.

One question that’s still unanswered is whether consumers in states like California and Texas, where utilities are already installing millions of smart meters, could wind up being penalized, in effect, because those states moved forward before stimulus funds were offered.

If the meters allow consumer access to the data, work interactively with the consumer’s appliances and home energy management devices, and support more advanced rate structures, then eventually consumers will benefit.

The speed at which consumer’s see benefits will depend on technology and policy choices of utilities and state retail electricity policies. I suspect that the competitive retail marketplace of Texas will shine, with or without federal support.

UPDATE: The list of 100 awardees included several projects in California and in Texas (both in ERCOT and in the non-ERCOT parts of the state).  The U.S. Department of Energy also provides a map.

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McArdle on the search for financial villians; Indiviglio on electric cars and power costs

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Worth reading: Megan McArdle, “The Search for Financial Villains Founders,” at The Atlantic: Business Channel. Apparently, damning remarks taken out of context from emails are not so damning when considered within the original context.

On the other hand, I’m not so convinced by the earlier post at The Atlantic Business Channel by Daniel Indiviglio, which asserts “Electric Car Will Increase Power Costs” (discussing this Bloomberg story, “California Electric-Cars Push May Raise Power Costs.” Notice Bloomberg’s “may raise” becomes the Atlantic’s “will increase.”). The primary point made is that utilities anticipate needing to spend a lot of money to adapt the grid to accommodate vehicle recharging, which means that utilities will be asking regulators for permission to recover more revenue through regulated rates.

But if electric car owners are paying for the power they use, and those payments cover the costs associated with providing vehicle charging services, why should rates go up?  And if, in fact, the smart grid and the electric car are a match made in enviro-heaven, and therefore the average system use rate increases, then average rates should fall.

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More post-season tournament design issues: MLS tiebreakers

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

For DC United fans, the MLS season is over.  While some fans contemplate coaching and roster changes, a few of us are still scratching our heads about the MLS tiebreaker rules and the complications presented by the final weekend of play (which had five teams angling for two remaining post-season positions. See here for an attempt to list them all, and an updated list.  See here for commentary.  Here a fan calls upon MLS to “stop the madness.”)

The combination of outcomes over the weekend put one of the five teams (New England, which improbably won its game) clearly over the others and one (Dallas, which lost its game) out of the running.  Three (Colorado, DC United, and Real Salt Lake) were tied for the final position and the tie breaker favored Real Salt Lake, which advanced to post-season play.

However, had New England lost, the situation gets interesting.  In this case, the tie breaking rules among Colorado, DC, and RSL would send Colorado and RSL into the playoffs.  However, if Dallas would have tied rather than lost its match, the tie breaking rules among Colorado, Dallas, DC, and RSL would have sent DC and RSL into the playoffs.

This interactive effect seems (at least to me) to violate an intuition about how these sorts of things should work.  Either DC was a better team than Colorado over the season or it was not, and whether Dallas won or lost against some another team in their final match should have little bearing on whether or not DC was better than Colorado during the season.

The intuition I’m talking about has been formalized in economic theory as the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” (IIA) principle. Formally:

If A is preferred to B out of the choice set {A,B}, then introducing a third alternative X, thus expanding the choice set to {A,B,X}, must not make B preferable to A.*

In this case: If Colorado is preferred to DC out of the set {Colorado, DC, RSL}, then introducing a fourth alternative Dallas, thus expanding the set to {Colorado, Dallas, DC, RSL}, should not make DC preferable to Colorado.  But the rules would have worked in just this way, had New England lost its final match.

Can this problem be fixed?  Why not the way that the professionals in Europe do it: first recourse in the event of a tie is to goal differential over the full season, then to total goals scored.

Sadly, such a rule would not have helped DC this season the way our defense gave up goals.  Is it too late to get Ryan Nelsen back at central defense?

*TECHNICAL NOTE: The formulation is stated in the simpler individual choice form, but the MLS tiebreaking rules may be seen more as a social choice mechanism.  Perhaps some form of Arrow’s impossibility theorem arises, meaning I’m unlikely to see a fully satisfying tiebreaking rule.  However, it does seem that goal differential avoids violating IIA.

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Calomiris on EconTalk

October 27, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

If you aren’t listening to EconTalk (and you should be, it’s wonderful!), you will miss Russ Roberts talking with Charlie Calomiris about financial crises.

Truly, simply, unequivocally outstanding. Charlie brings the perspective of an economic historian along with his prodigious background in macroeconomic theory and his deep institutional knowledge about banking history. Almost everything that I know about macroeconomic history I learned from Charlie, and I can’t recommend his insights to you highly enough.

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Where does lithium come from, anyway?

October 27, 2009

Michael Giberson

Joshua Keating, in Foreign Policy, offers a photo essay on lithium extraction in Bolivia. Keating said:

Bolivia hopes its lithium treasure can pull it up from the bottom rungs of the global economy, but as countries throughout the developing world have learned the hard way, resource wealth can just as easily lead to corruption, mismanagement, and more misery for the world’s neediest people. Lithium may very well be the secret to reducing the world’s disastrous dependence on oil, but that doesn’t mean a new “resource curse” can’t take its place.

FP says the “Fifty to 70 percent of the world’s supply” is located in just one spot in Bolivia, but that claim is higher than I see other places.  In any case, over 80 percent of the world’s production of lithium in 2008 came from three other countries: Argentina, Australia, and Chile.

HT to the Texas Energy and Environment blog.

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