Archive for October, 2009

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A big day for Google 2: Power Meter and TED!

October 6, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Google is ringing both of my dominant bells today. Today they announced their first official device partner for the Power Meter — TED 5000 (TED = The Energy Detective). Power Meter + TED = ability for homeowners to monitor their own electricity consumption, regardless of whether they have a digital meter, retail product choice, or any other hallmarks of competitive retail markets.

This is good. Very good. But it’s not enough. Why not?  Because the potential exists for so much more. Power Meter + TED could = transactive capability, with price-responsive devices and retail products and services that send dynamic prices to consumers, inducing them to program their devices. And I believe this will happen, and hope that Power Meter + TED = camel’s nose under the tent for true consumer choice and empowerment.

Martin LaMonica at CNet is also a worthwhile read on this announcement.

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A big day for Google 1: Verizon and Google

October 6, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I am about to benefit from being an early-but-not-first adopter in the smart phone market! Today Google and Verizon announced that they will be issuing two new phones on Verizon using Google’s Android operating system. I was already planning to leave Verizon in March upon the end of my contract because I wanted to get an Android phone, and ideally I’d like one that I can use in the UK, but perhaps that will happen if Verizon decides not to cripple the dual-band capabilities and SIM-card switching in either of these phones … so I may end up staying with them instead of moving to T-Mobile. Or not; we’ll see …

From an industrial organization perspective, this smart phone space is about to get very interesting. First of all, the variety of phones that are competing with the iPhone is growing, and growing in real competitive capacity. Second, Verizon is moving away from its traditional use of proprietary software, and has conceded that to continue to grow and profit in this industry it has to accept open architecture, so now Verizon says that it wants to be “the open carrier”; they will even support Google Voice. In other words, go for interoperability and make your money off of the quality of service and of end-user interface and design. Third, the fact that one of the Verizon Android phones is an HTC, while T-Mobile and Sprint also have HTC Android phones, opens up  an interesting additional dimension of product differentiation in this market — the differentiator may not just be the phone, it may also be the phone and the carrier-specific (open-platform but customized) interface. Increasingly consumers are interestd in the interface, the apps, how the apps integrate, and so on. The carriers are responding to this by product differentiation.

This will be fun, and consumer-surplus-generating, to watch …

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Does FERC have jurisdiction over installed capacity requirements in wholesale power systems?

October 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

Does the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) asserted authority over the Installed Capacity Requirement, on the ground that it is “a practice affecting rates,” contravene the Federal Power Act’s specific limits on FERC’s authority, and express preservation of State authority over generation facilities and system adequacy?

That is the question for the U.S. Supreme Court to decide in Connecticut Department of Public Utility Control and Richard Blumenthal, Attorney General for the State of Connecticut v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, at least as presented in a brief by the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC). In case you don’t know, NARUC is the association of state level regulatory commissioners, which should tell you what answers they favor to the question posed above.

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Did prediction markets miss the call on Chicago’s Olympic bid?

October 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

The IOC recently selected Rio de Janerio over three competing bids to host the 2016 summer Olympic games.  The Chicago bid was favored in public prediction markets, with prices at Intrade between 50 and 60 at the time of decision and prices at Betfair implying about a 50 percent chance.  Did the prediction markets fail to predict well?

At Midas Oracle, Chris Masse has been asserting that prediction markets for IOC selections are fundamentally flawed, saying that the IOC is a small, secretive committee that doesn’t leak information and therefore no information is “out there” available to be aggregated by a prediction market. He was saying this before the IOC vote, too; this is not just after-the-fact speculation, it was his before-the-fact speculation. (Also posts here, here, here, here, here, here and, from April 2007, this post.)

I think the “small, secretive committee” explanation is weak, so I’ve been poking back a little in the comments. Chris, as is his style, has been elevating my comments into new posts in order to re-assert his views.

But a more fundamental question is whether or not it can be said that the prediction markets got it wrong.  At Sabernomics, J.C. Bradbury reports watching Intrade closely the morning of the IOC decision:

Around 9 AM … the odds show Chicago to be the favorite with a 53% chance of winning, closely followed by Rio at 46%, Tokyo at 3%, and Madrid at 2%. Like all the pundits following the selection were saying, it was a race between Chicago and Rio, but was very close to call. These odds also show something else, Chicago was trending down and Rio was trending up. The trend would continue for the next few hours.

… Looks like useful information was leaking out from knowledgeable parties just before the vote. This is evidence for, not against, the strong-form of efficient markets hypothesis.

Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting.  Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to attract votes as the rounds proceeded.  It was going to be Rio or Chicago all along, but Chicago was weakest in the four-way vote and lost early, leaving the games to go to Brazil.

Based on Bradbury’s analyis, I’m convinced that the decision was pretty much a toss up between Chicago and Rio.  That conclusion was also implied in the prediction market prices just before the decision.  Sure, the prediction markets favored Chicago, slightly, over Rio; I don’t think you can call it a miss given the closeness of the decision.

[Related: Market Design and Marginal Revolution both have brief notes; Infectious Greed provides related discussion.]

UPDATE: Chris Masse doesn’t like my analysis: Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?; neither does Paul Hewitt: “Michael Giberson is wrong to imply that the prediction was accurate on the basis that Chicago and Rio were fairly close.” See also here.

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New York politicians want to expand zone pricing ban to protect wealthy customers from slightly higher prices

October 5, 2009

Michael Giberson

From Newsday:

Two Nassau County legislators Thursday called on the State Senate to join the Assembly in extending the ban on zone pricing for gasoline, which they said unfairly charges more in well-to-do communities than in those less so.

For readers not up on their New York geography, Nassau County is the portion of Long Island closest to New York City.  The county ranks 10th in the nation and second in New York in median income, so generally speaking we are dealing with a relatively well-off bunch of consumers.  The Nassau County legislators are supporting the bill for the same reason that state legislators in wealthy Fairfield County in Connecticut support a zone pricing ban: they want gasoline prices in their neighborhoods to be made closer to the gasoline prices in lower-income neighborhoods.

A gas station owner quoted in the Newsday story said the extended ban would “end a discriminatory practice and benefit all members of the community,” but it is easy to see that if the high-end prices get a little lower and the low-end prices get a little higher, the not “all members of the community” are benefited.  Rather, the law may just raise prices to low-income consumers in order to give the pretense of providing “consumer protection” to high-income consumers.

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Consumer protection in the Texas retail power market, part 2

October 5, 2009

Michael Giberson

The Dallas Morning News is back with the second half of its investigative report into consumer protection problems in the Texas retail power marketIn this article the DMN focuses on the owner of Freedom Power, one company serving the prepaid power segment of the Texas retail market. (Yesterday I commented on part one of the story.)

The story reveals that Ken Weaver, when he became the owner of Freedom Power, lied about his past on state licensing documents.  Among the problems: failing to disclose his felony record and prison time, claiming college degrees he didn’t earn, and reporting a three-sport varsity career as an undergrad.  State officials said that the felony convictions may not have disqualified Weaver from receiving a license (though presumably extensive lying on the licensing application is a problem).  The story suggests, reasonably I might add, that any checking into the background of potential licensees would have revealed the deceptions.

Of course just because Weaver lied to state licensing officials doesn’t make the company he bought a bad apple, right?  Well, the DMN reported:

For some, the consequences were painful.

Weaver’s Freedom Power developed a track record of cutting power to customers in midsummer, despite a state-imposed moratorium on cutoffs during a heat emergency. It also compiled the highest rate of consumer complaints in Texas and one of the highest rates of rule violations of any electricity provider in the state.

The Public Utility Commission, which is supposed to protect consumers in the deregulated market, ultimately fined Weaver’s company $21,050 for a few electrical cutoffs. But it took no other action even after The Dallas Morning News informed it of Weaver’s criminal history and false statements his company made in filings to the commission.

I don’t know whether the $21,000 fine is comparable to fines assessed to other companies with similar violations, if any, but this story is pretty thin on actual consumer harm.  The single consumer harm mentioned is the midsummer loss of power during a state-imposed moratorium on cutoffs. (Yesterday I commented on the likely consequences for prepaid customer rates of forcing retailers to be charities during emergencies.)

Yes, Weaver lied on his licensing application and generally seems to mix business with a great deal of self-promoting fiction, and his fast-and-loose play with the facts may be tied to those record-setting number of consumer complaints, but the story does not document that connection. After reading the article, I wouldn’t trust Weaver with my money nor would I sign up as a customer to one of his businesses, but it doesn’t look like he set out to defraud his consumers.  Instead, it looks like he has tried to run a business.

Despite the evidence, in both the first and second half of the report, of problems in licensing review and weak efforts put into consumer protection at the PUC of Texas, the reporters came up with little direct evidence of harm to consumers due to these problems.

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Is consumer protection lacking in Texas retail electric power market?

October 4, 2009

Michael Giberson

The Dallas Morning News has published an in-depth story detailing the apparent lack of effort put into consumer protection issues in the restructured retail power market in Texas. The story focuses on the prepaid end of the business, which mostly services customers lacking established credit and unable to post a deposit.  Rates tend to be much higher, cutoffs happen more quickly, and complaints are more numerous than for standard retail service.

Retail electric power providers have to be licensed by the state – yes, even in competition-crazy Texas – and there is some question about how diligent the state has been about policing the parties to whom they grant licenses.  (“Consumers filed 54,356 complaints against electric providers from July 2002 to May 2009. PUC staff found rule violations in 11 percent of those and made only 34 attempts to seek sanctions.”)  Still, the story provides relatively little evidence of company rule violations that imposed hardships on consumers.  Mostly, the story illustrates the hardships that come with poverty, a difficulty in paying for power service being among those hardships.

The two customer hardship cases described in the story – a heart patient who relied upon an oxygen machine, a paraplegic – both lost power after failing to make payments.  The article mentions that the heart patient’s power retailer was Freedom Power – subject of many, many customer complaints and perhaps not qualified to hold a license under state standards – but the article doesn’t link the heart patient’s troubles to any shady practices.  The paraplegic customer’s power company was among the five companies bankrupted by high wholesale power prices, but he only lost power after he failed to pay a deposit to the new company to which he had been assigned by the state’s transitioning policies.

The article quotes Texas PUC chairman Barry Smitherman as saying, “prepaids, like any other provider, must abide by the disconnection rules despite any difficulties it might pose… you have to understand there are going to be periods of time when you are going to be giving power away.”  But retail power providers ought not to be made into part-time charitable institutions when customers are unable to pay bills.  If a consumer fails to pay a bill, the consumer should expect to lose service.

Maybe actual charitable institutions should devise a low cost service for Texans unable to pay for the power they use, or maybe local government could fund the service.  Forcing retailers to take the risk that they’ll be required to “give power away” adds to the costs of serving the prepaid market and pushes up rates for other prepaid customers.

No doubt there are problems in the retail power market in Texas – it would be surprising to have no problems in such a large industry with so many participants operating under relatively new rules.  But this news article mixes in stories about the hardship of being poor with problems of PUC licensing review, various other regulatory policy discussions, and numerous but not-well-detailed customer complaints. With 54,356 complaints filed over the past seven years, couldn’t the Dallas Morning News come up with at least a case or two of real consumer hardship caused by shady power retailer practices?

Reform of the state’s consumer protection rules can’t do much about poverty, the problem is larger than utility rules can deal with, but the rules can and should help protect consumers from bad operators.  If existing rules are inadequate, they ought to be changed.  The story doesn’t inform us of how consumers have been harmed by existing failures of the rules or even the failure of the PUC to enforce existing rules.

The story is just the first of a two-part series.  Maybe the real substance is in part two.

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