Archive for November, 2009

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Designing federal programs that work

November 12, 2009

Michael Giberson

From Government Executive:

As Washington considers an overhaul of the nation’s health care system affecting roughly one-seventh of our economy, a critical question arises: How effective are we at crafting legislation that can be implemented? To answer this question, we partnered with Government Executive in 2008 to survey members of the Senior Executive Service….

It turns out if you want to get federal executives angry, ask them what they think of the legislative design process. Their responses can be scathing: “Policy design at the federal level is pathetic.” “Policy design too often is done without consideration of implementation challenges.” The consequences of poor design can be severe.

The prime example of a legislative program design disaster is the original California power market design developed in substantial detail by the state’s legislature.  We get the “cartoon version” of what went wrong in California (“The short answer is energy companies like Enron exploited design flaws in the legislation….”*).

The principles advocated are not bad:

  • Think Design, Not Legislation
  • Involve Implementers
  • Evaluate Workability
  • Probe for Weaknesses

But, essentially, these principles invite politicians to reflect upon the practical limits of their ability to change the world, at the same time they are trying to change the world. How practical is it to ask legislators to be practical?  Other the other hand, making suggestions to legislators must work to some degree or another, because lots of organizations spend billions of dollars in the aggregate to explain to legislators just how, practically speaking, laws should be written.  Why not add program implementation lobbyists to the mix?

If we take legislators out of the picture, however, and think about market design outside of the legislative context, then the four principles can be helpful. Government Executive observes, “If someone isn’t looking for the weaknesses during the design phase, rest assured people will be finding weaknesses in the policy after it is launched – with far more serious consequences.”

It is a sort of mantra (i.e., part of the sales pitch) among applied market design specialists that you can pay a little to test designs in the lab, or end up paying much more to test designs in the real world.  One of the benefits of doing applied market design analysis in an economics lab is that is forces the analyst to answer a lot of useful questions about “how this project is actually going to work” that committee discussions, white papers, and theorists rarely consider (until after an implementation goes badly wrong).

*ASIDE: I think Enron gets mentioned in contexts like this due to its bankruptcy for unrelated reasons and because of a few colorful remarks by traders caught on tape, and the unfortunate and mostly misunderstood law firm memo, and the …; well the list is long, but other companies are as deserving of mention as Enron.  The other companies managed to stay out of the headlines, and Enron was too busy falling apart to fight a post-California market meltdown PR battle.

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Wholesale power markets for beginners – The New Hampshire view

November 12, 2009

Michael Giberson

Granite Viewpoint provides an excellent brief introduction to wholesale power markets in New England, with a few New Hampshire specific details thrown in. (First line: “It’s 9:00 am, do you know what the bulk price is for electricity in New Hampshire?”)  At this introductory level the story told about ISO-NE is approximately the same within each of the regional power markets integrated into power systems operations — PJM, New York ISO, Midwest ISO, California ISO; and the Southwest Power Pool and ERCOT are moving toward the arrangements described.

Want more? The New York ISO is “offering opportunities for individuals to learn more about wholesale electricity markets and power system operations in New York.”  For $300 you can get a one-day overview of NYISO operations. (Want still more? A four-day course is also available.)

And speaking of power markets for beginnings, I’ve been meaning to mention the launch of market trials for the Florida Cost Based Broker System.  (Actually, the FCBBS is not a “power market for beginners,” it is a full-scale wholesale power trading platform for professionals.  Google doesn’t readily find me a clear description of the system, but with a little looking I’m sure something will turn up.)

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Blackouts in Brazil: Two views

November 11, 2009

Michael Giberson

Without additional comment, I present two articles online at Transmission and Distribution World, both addressing Brazil and blackouts:

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Tres Amigas transmission link overview at Alt Energy Stocks

November 11, 2009

Michael Giberson

I put together an overview of the Tres Amigas LLC proposal for Alt Energy Stocks, published today: “Tres Amigas Proposes Three-way Transmission Link.”  (Tres Amigas proposes to build a three-way transmission link between the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection, and the Texas Interconnection.)

The only company mentioned in the summary with a stock trading somewhere is AMSC.  The Tres Amigas project has been promoted as aiding the development of renewable power sources.  The combination apparently qualifies the discussion for posting at Alt Energy Stocks.  (Thanks Tom.)

The project should facilitate trade (of all kinds of power) among the three areas, reducing price volatility and lowering average wholesale prices overall.  Since it is proposed as a merchant transmission facility, without electric ratepayer money at risk, there is almost no downside to consumers from the project.

NOTE: Link to related Tres Amigas posts at Knowledge Problem.

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Buy American sounds great—until you think about it

November 10, 2009

Michael Giberson

“Buy American sounds great—until you think about it,” said Marc Gunther in “Buy American: Bad for America.”

(Gunther begins by writing: “Congress should have known better,” but I think the truth is that Congress did know better.  It just didn’t matter.)

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Nostalgia and Duran Duran

November 10, 2009

Michael Giberson

“Ah, the good old days, back before the talkies television video the internet killed the silent movie star the movie business the radio star pop star creativity.”

At least that is the message I took from a speech by Duran Duran bassist John Taylor, “Is the internet stifling new music?,” a question Taylor answers in the affirmative. Are his remarks any deeper than nostalgia for the musical world as he discovered it?

There may be fewer big music stars today because of the internet, for the same kinds of reasons that it is getting harder to get admitted into the best colleges.  Today, talent is more willing to travel. But, again for the same kinds of reasons it is getting easier to get admitted to some college somewhere, it is probably getting easier to get into the music business than ever before.

Creativity is not suffering, just old and familiar ways of doing business.

(HT Marginal Revolution for both links.)

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The solar panels that pay for themselves…

November 10, 2009

Michael Giberson

From the Texas Energy and Environment Blog, reports that in New Mexico “solar panels on homes can take as little as seven years to pay for themselves in energy savings.”  The post continues:

That’s faster than Texas, where even in the best economic case, solar panels take at least a decade to pay for themselves. New Mexico’s utility, PNM, offers several subsidies to bring down the cost of the installations for homeowners.

[...]

New Mexico remains regulated, meaning the government tells PNM how much it may charge customers and how much profit it may make. That means, if regulators want more solar, customers pay for it.

So, PNM offers two incentives. First, it offers so-called net metering. That means, when a solar customer generates more power than he can use, PNM buys that power back at retail rates, rather than wholesale rates. Second, under state law, renewable generators like solar panels get renewable energy credits. PNM buys those credits from solar customers at a price that’s about ten times higher than the market rate.

Ferland said these offers, along with state and federal subsidies, nearly make installing solar panels economic.

In [the Dallas, Texas area], our regulated power line utility, Oncor, offers some subsidies that have made solar panels more affordable. But the Oncor deal isn’t as sweet at he PNM offer.

Still, Oncor promised not to add the cost of those subsidies to customer rates. North Texans might not install as many solar panels as New Mexicans, but ratepayers don’t have to pay for it, either.

So wait a minute. Who is paying for those New Mexico solar panels?  From the quoted material it looks like other New Mexico ratepayers and state and federal taxpayers are paying for part of those solar panels.

Of course, federal and New Mexico state policymakers put ratepayers and taxpayers on the hook for a part of the solar panel costs because they believe that purchases of solar panels provide external public benefits.

I wonder how long before those external benefits accumulate in value sufficient to payback the investment made by ratepayers and taxpayers.  I don’t think it is reasonable to say that the solar panels have “paid for themselves” until after all of the initial investors – homeowner, utility, ratepayers, and taxpayers – have received a full return on their investment.

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The Fall of the Berlin Wall

November 9, 2009

Michael Giberson

Today is a day celebrated as the day, 20 years ago, the Berlin Wall fell.

Technically speaking, the wall itself was breached a few days after November 9, but this is the day an East German bureaucratic mix-up inadvertently and briefly allowed East Berliners free movement into the west.  When combined with events of the prior several weeks in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany, the brief opening between the two halves of the city soon led to a physical assault on the barrier itself.

The Berlin Wall was perhaps the most potent symbol of the divisions between the capitalist West and the authoritarian East, and its fall has stood as symbol of the collapse of communism.  East and West Germany reunited about a year later, and other countries in the former Soviet sphere continued rapid movement toward open societies.

Many video accounts of the fall of the wall are available on YouTube, both historical looks at the fall and many current 20th anniversary reports.  See, for example: “Fall of the Berlin Wall: The 20th Anniversary of the moment“.  (Google News provides links to many, many news stories on the fall.  See also Lynne’s earlier post on the anniversary.)

UPDATE: The minor flap about when now-French President Nicholas Sarkozy arrived and took a small pickaxe to the Berlin Wall reminds me of the Romanian film 12:08 East of Bucharest, which involves similarly disputed accounts of just when (indeed, whether) one of the characters joined protests against the Ceauşescu regime before the Ceauşescus fled the country.

Films more directly related to the Berlin Wall include Der Tunnel (The Tunnel), Goodbye, Lenin, Das Leben der Anderen (The Lives of Others), or The Spy that Came In from the Cold.  Each film touches on life in East Berlin and the Berlin Wall in some manner.

Any other recommendations?

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World oil, but apparently not local shale gas skepticism

November 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

Tom Fowler has more on the ditching of shale gas skeptic Art Berman’s column by World Oil magazine.  Now the magazine’s editor is out too.

Read Fowler’s context, then follow the link to the former editor’s remarks, posted today on Berman’s blog.  Excerpts:

… The next day, the president stopped by to tell me that we had to stop Art from writing about shale plays.

I said, “I’m surprised that there haven’t been at least a dozen complaints. I’ve seen worse on other topics.”

It was no use arguing. Ironically, I had already decided that Art should take a break from the shale plays for a while anyway, just because he was running out of new things to say, having written 8 (I’m guessing) columns on that one subject. …

Immediately after I hung up the phone with Art, the Publisher walked in, slapped down a fax from DS, and said, “We’ve got to stop Art from writing about these shale plays, we’re getting too many complaints!”

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Austin Energy’s future rate hikes

November 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

A few years ago Lubbock’s municipal electric utility was in a tight financial spot that threatened to put it and the city into bankruptcy.  When the utility pushed through a rate increase, customers started switching to competing electric utility Xcel.  The dwindling customer base forced the municipal utility to find another way out of their difficulties.  The utility reorganized management, negotiated some complex deals to reduce wholesale power costs, and made their rates competitive again.  It worked, Lubbock Power & Light is financially secure today and still offering competitive rates.

Austin Energy, the municipal utility for the Texas capital, foresees tough times ahead and the need to either “significantly raise electric rates” or “start losing millions by 2011.”  Fortunately for the utility, Austin Energy is a monopoly and its customers cannot escape rate increases so easily. (See Marty Toohy’s article, “Electric utility proposes major rate increase,” in the Austin American-Statesman.)

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