Archive for December, 2009

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Digging into the resource curse: Research into oil revenue and Brazilian municipalities

December 9, 2009

Michael Giberson

A paper by Francesco Caselli and Guy Michaels, “Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil,” takes a closer look at the how the resource curse works its anti-magic. (Ungated version here.) The abstract:

We use variation in oil output among Brazilian municipalities to investigate the effects of resource windfalls. We find muted effects of oil through market channels: offshore oil has no effect on municipal non-oil GDP or its composition, while onshore oil has only modest effects on non-oil GDP composition. However, oil abundance causes municipal revenues and reported spending on a range of budgetary items to increase, mainly as a result of royalties paid by Petrobras. Nevertheless, survey-based measures of social transfers, public good provision, infrastructure, and household income increase less (if at all) than one might expect given the increase in reported spending. To explain why oil windfalls contribute little to local living standards, we use data from the Brazilian media and federal police to document that very large oil output increases alleged instances of illegal activities associated with mayors.

The authors observe that focusing closely on an intra-country case provides both disadvantages and advantages.  They realize they risk obtaining findings that are not generalizable elsewhere.  However, an intra-country study naturally holds many institutional and policy variables constant, and therefore should more clearly reveal the relationship between resources and economic outcomes.

Most of the body of the paper is taken up with a discussion of data sources and the analysis by which they conclude that royalties paid by PetroBras to municipalities do increase municipal budgets, but seem to generate very little in the way of a broader increase in income or welfare.  The result leads them to ask: where are the oil revenues going?

To partly address this question we put together a few pieces of tentative evidence. First, oil revenues increase the size of municipal workers’ houses (but not the size of other residents’ houses). Second, Brazil’s news agency is more likely to carry news items mentioning corruption and the mayor in municipalities with very high levels of oil output (on an absolute, though not per capita, basis). Third, federal police operations are more likely to occur in municipalities with very high levels of oil output (again in absolute terms). And finally, we document anecdotal evidence of scandals allegedly involving mayors in several of the largest oil producing municipalities, some involving large sums of money. To partly explain why senior municipal workers may have thought that they could “get away” with large-scale alleged theft in a country where local elections are held regularly, we note that a survey in the largest oil producing municipality found considerable ignorance among residents regarding the scale of the municipal oil windfall.

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Ed Glaeser on great cities

December 9, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

A couple of weeks ago I linked to a post from Ed Glaeser on his research on urban dynamism. Glaeser has posted a follow-up to his initial comments. He asks:

For decades, economists have debated the “ Dutch Disease” and other ailments associated with too much success. The discovery of natural gas in the North Sea supposedly helped to de-industrialize the Netherlands by raising exchange rates and making Dutch manufacturing less competitive internationally. Almost 15 years ago, Jeffrey Sachs found a negative correlation between resource abundance and economic growth in the developing world, perhaps because those resources fueled conflict and enabled dictators.

Can some types of prosperity imperil cities as well as countries?

His answer: maybe. I recommend his entire post, but in brief he’s applying much of the research on the role of natural resources in economic growth, and there is substantial evidence on a broad continuum between “no impact” and “totally deterministic” (not much evidence at the endpoints, of course). If you are interested in economic growth, urban dynamism, or regional development, Glaeser’s analysis will be of interest to you.

Interestingly, in locating the KP link above I did a site search, which showed that I have talked about Glaeser’s research here more than I realized.

UPDATE: in many ways, Glaeser’s argument rests on a lot of the same ideas as in the “resource curse” literature that Mike delves into in his post this morning.

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More Tres Amigas interconnection details revealed in FERC filings

December 8, 2009

Michael Giberson

Today Tres Amigas LLC submitted two filings to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, one seeking assurance from FERC that linking the ERCOT system to the proposed interconnection project would not subject ERCOT to FERC jurisdiction, and the other seeking authority to sell transmission services at negotiated rates. According to the filings, affirmative answers to both requests are necessary for the project to proceed.

In the jurisdictional request, Tres Amigas said:

The relief requested in this Petition is essential for the Tres Amigas project to move forward. The ERCOT parties with whom the Petitioner has discussed interconnecting with Tres Amigas have made clear that they will not likely obtain approvals in Texas to construct transmission lines to Tres Amigas without this jurisdictional disclaimer, and without an ERCOT interconnection the unique benefits of Tres Amigas will be lost.

In the request for authority to sell transmission services, Tres Amigas said:

Although this filing is styled as a request for negotiated rates, it is in reality a request for authorization to proceed with the Tres Amigas Superstation (“Tres Amigas”). The Applicant cannot realistically use traditional, cost-based transmission service pricing. Cost-based pricing normally applies to transmission providers that have captive customers who bear responsibility for the cost of transmission under an individual or regional open access transmission tariff (“OATT”) or other transmission arrangement.

The Applicant has no captive customers and there is no regional transmission organization (“RTO”) OATT under which the costs of Tres Amigas can be recovered. The beneficiaries of the Tres Amigas project will be in all three interconnections and therefore will be spread over a geographical area that far exceeds the scope of any existing or proposed OATT with cost-based rates. The very purpose of Tres Amigas is to eliminate the barrier created by the current separation of the U.S. transmission system into three asynchronous grids, providing new transaction opportunities across much of the United States.

The risks associated with Tres Amigas also exceed those associated with a typical cost-based transmission project. As discussed in Section VI.A below, the Applicant is taking on the full market risk associated with this project. This risk is unique in that no one has constructed a facility like Tres Amigas before. The economic success of this project will depend on the market’s response to the availability of service through this facility and on the willingness and ability of third parties to construct transmission lines to Tres Amigas, factors over which the Applicant will have virtually no control.

The Applicant has invested two years of effort and considerable expense to develop an engineering solution to a long-recognized transmission system need. Thus far, Tres Amigas has received a positive response from throughout the industry and from public officials. However, if this application is not approved, the Applicant will have no means to recover the $1 billion or more projected initial investment required to design and build Tres Amigas, and the project cannot proceed.

The request for authority to sell transmission service contains extensive discussions concerning the company’s proposed business model.  I anticipate finding time later in the week for a careful review.

[Various other Tres Amigas-related posts here at Knowledge Problem can be found using this search link.]

UPDATE: The Tres Amigas jurisdicational filing is assigned FERC docket number EL10-22; the transmission rate filing is ER10-396.  Comments on both filings are due at FERC on December 29, 2009.

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New sharing button

December 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I’ve added an AddThis “share this blog” button to the right sidebar, which allows you to link to KP from just about every imaginable form of social media. We hope you will!

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The Devil’s Dictionary meme applied to climate politics and to financial markets

December 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Ambrose Bierce’s Devil’s Dictionary is a true literary gem. Also known as the “cynic’s word book”, it complies witty and biting definitions that Bierce contributed to magazines starting in the 1880s, with all of the bluntness and prejudices that you would expect (in other words, if Bierce were writing today he’d certainly offend many people). Bierce is one of my favorite late 19th-early 20th century witty authors, in my Bierce-Oscar Wilde-H. L. Mencken triumvirate. Wit in the face of people who take themselves too seriously is a good thing.

The Devil’s Dictionary was such a success that it has become a living meme. See, for example, this financial crisis devil’s dictionary from Matthew Rose at the Wall Street Journal. Some of my favorite entries:

BORROWERS, n. For liberals, the unwitting dupes of unscrupulous bankers and lenders whom one shouldn’t blame for the crisis. For conservatives, irresponsible graspers with a credit-busting taste for cathedral-ceilinged entryways and 70-inch flat-screen televisions whom one should absolutely blame for the crisis.

CREDIT-DEFAULT SWAP, n. loose translation from the original Latin “ubi mel ibi apes,” or “where there’s honey there are bees.” 1. A complex financial instrument vital to the functioning of a modern economy in the way it spreads risk among consenting parties. (Greenspan, A., pre-Sept. 2008.) 2. A complex financial instrument that nearly destroyed modern capitalism (Greenspan, A., post-Sept. 2008).

Another current devil’s dictionary on offer comes from Tunku Varadarajan, with application to climate science and climate politics:

Very nearly a hundred years ago, Ambrose Bierce compiled A Devil’s Dictionary, in which he sought to puncture the cultural cant of his time. Here is an attempt—at much shorter length—to prick a very contemporary kind of cant, that which has swollen the debate on climate change to ungovernable proportions.

I applaud efforts to puncture cultural cant, and if you have any sense of humor you will find Tunku’s definitions amusing regardless of your conclusions on climate science and policy. Some of my favorites:

D is for deniers. A mere notch above Holocaust deniers, these are the people who refuse to accept that climate change is largely man-induced. Heretics, they’d be burned at the stake if that were not such a bad thing for the ozone layer.

M is for Man, who, to quote Ambrose Bierce, is “an animal so lost in rapturous contemplation of what he thinks he is as to overlook what he indubitably ought to be. His chief occupation is extermination of other animals and his own species, which, however, multiplies with such insistent rapidity as to infest the whole habitable earth and Canada.” And then there’s methane, a greenhouse gas parped into the air 24/7 by bovine polluters across the globe; the Medieval Climate Optimum, a warm period from about the 10th to the 14th century which warmists (i) ignore and/or (iii) cannot explain; ManBearPig, South Park’s derisive nickname for global warming; and money (as in “Follow the…”; see Khosla Ventures, above).

If you have any financial or climate dictionary entries, feel free to offer them in the comments. Enjoy!

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This American Life/Planet Money and market dynamics

December 8, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I’ve mentioned NPR’s Planet Money before, specifically their story on the history of employer-provided health insurance. They do a good job (not perfect, but good) of exploring economics topics for a general audience; they did some very good reporting on the underlying macroeconomic issues in the financial crisis earlier this year (although they didn’t discuss Hayek or any business cycle ideas other than Keynes, but it was still better than most).

In a recent episode of This American Life on nighttime activity, the Planet Money team spent time and did interviews in the Hunts Point produce market in the Bronx. It’s full of trenchant observations on the dynamics of supply and demand and the time structure of supply and demand. For example, one buyer is in the market for pears, and early in the night he is having a hard time negotiating a lower price with a seller … but later in the night, toward morning, the seller will be more likely to accept a lower price rather than return home with unsold inventory. But if the buyer takes the risk of waiting a few hours, he might find all of the pears have been purchased at a price higher than he was willing to pay — he doesn’t know the preferences of the other buyers in the market, so he has to evaluate that tradeoff. Similarly, the “hot item” varies from day to day; one day it’s fancy carrots, another day it’s tomatoes, and it all depends on the interaction of what the wholesalers have available and what the buyers who are in the market on that precise day want and are willing to pay.

I liked this story so much that I have listened to it about 4 times in total. Especially if you are teaching a principles course or want to make market dynamics and the time structure of those dynamics more real for your students, this story is extremely useful and well done.

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Bars take donations to pay smoking fines

December 7, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

Here’s an illustration of several important economic points. Illinois instituted a smoking ban in bars and restaurants in January 2008. One of the arguments for such smoking bans is to spare patrons and employees the negative effects of second-hand smoke. Clearly such a blanket ban has some negative unintended consequences that reduce economic efficiency relating to individual liberty; in particular, the legislation does not allow for voluntary smoking bars, where all patrons and employees knowingly and voluntarily choose to work at and patronize the bar.

The Crowbar, on the southeast side of Chicago near the Indiana border, provides an experiment on precisely this point. The bar’s owner takes donations to pay for the fines that he is charged for allowing smoking:

Owner Pat Carroll said his customers — smokers and nonsmokers alike — contribute to a “smoking fund” canister that often sits on the bar, to subsidize the fines he’s incurred for flouting the law.

Carroll said he’s been ticketed twice and paid at least $680. He fears that if he forbids smoking, his cigar-and-cigarette crowd would switch to bars that permit smoking just a few blocks away in Indiana. …

But some smokers say they’ll support any tavern that gives them sanctuary. Laura Pugh said she contributes $5 a month to Crowbar’s smoking fund, considering it akin to membership fees at a private club. If she couldn’t smoke there, Pugh said she’d probably go to a bar in Indiana.

First, notice what the legislation has done in terms of redefining property rights. In essence smokers are purchasing the right to smoke, because the legislation makes the default property right the non-smoker’s right to clean air.

That’s about the kindest interpretation I can put on the smoking legislation, because it does still also contain a substantial dose of the coercive public-health nanny mentality that is frequently reflected in the arguments for such legislation. For example, this quote from the Tribune story illustrates the mentality:

“There are always some bad apples out there who will try to get around the law,” said Tim Hadac, spokesman for the Chicago Department of Public Health. …

Katie Lorenz of the American Lung Association in Greater Chicago said she was disappointed that some bars weren’t complying; she added that the secondhand smoke harms employees and non-smoking patrons. “This is a health issue, and it affects every single person who happens to be in the bar,” she said. “What’s in the best interest of everyone is to not inhale those toxic fumes.”

Note the moralizing and the no-exceptions mentality in these quotes. If a group of people voluntarily choose to patronize and work at a particular establishment, with full awareness of the health effects of smoking, they are “bad apples” because they find the law unnecessarily onerous and believe that their voluntary choice to patronize a smoking bar does not harm anyone who has not made that conscious choice. Lorenz’s statement that the smoking ban is “in the best interest of everyone” applies a uniform public health standard but ignores differences in preferences and willingness to bear risk among people in the population.

Another important part of the economic dynamic here is the inter-jurisdictional competition. One reason the Crowbar continues to allow smoking is the owner’s fear of losing business to competing bars over the Indiana border. I bet that if you analyzed compliance with the smoking ban it would increase as you move away from the Indiana border, other things equal.

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Rooftop honey in Chicago

December 6, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

The Marriott hotel on Michigan Avenue has been harvesting honey from beehives they have set up on their own roof. They use the honey in an on-site microbrew beer and in some of the dishes they make in their restaurant. What do you think are some of the economic motives driving such a decision? Is on-premise honey sufficiently esoterically gourmet to be that compelling to consumers?

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Beckham’s chances of playing for England in the World Cup…

December 6, 2009

Michael Giberson

…must be about zero after he used the words “soccer ball” when clearly he meant “football.”

See this video from South Africa ( highlighting the introduction of the new Adidas ball for World Cup 2010) at the 3:36 mark.  Too much time in the States?

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Tea online: Rate Tea

December 5, 2009

Lynne Kiesling

I drink tea. Lots of tea. Mostly strong, black tea with milk and some Splenda. I prefer Assam and its big, malty body. I’m not such a tea weenie that I drink only loose leaf tea, but I am enough of a tea weenie that when I travel home from London, I always bring back several boxes of Twinings Assam tea bags (not available in the U.S.) and at least a pound of loose-leaf breakfast tea from Fortnum & Mason. I know I’m pathetic, but I’m OK with that …

So I’m excited about Rate Tea, a new independent tea rating web site. In addition to being able to rate teas, it links to several other tea-related web sites, so it can serve as a tea portal (see, I warned you, I’m a tea weenie …). It looks like it will be thorough and useful, and now just needs to be populated with ratings. If you are a tea drinker, head on over, sign up, and rate some teas!

It’s also interesting because its proprietor, Alex Zorach, is a statistician with a particular interest in developing rating algorithms. Check it out!

UPDATE: Another good online tea community is Steepster, which has more of a social networking nature to it. Rate Tea and Steepster are complements, not substitutes.

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