Archive for March, 2010

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Are you a “hydrocarbon denier”?

March 10, 2010

Michael Giberson

From the Houston Chronicle‘s coverage of CERAWeek:

… later in the day, ConocoPhillips’ [CEO James] Mulva drew applause from the crowd when he blasted “hydrocarbon deniers” for questioning the potential of natural gas to meet future U.S. energy needs.

In an interview afterward, he said he wasn’t necessarily calling out the administration.

“It can be current and past administrations. It can be Congress. It can be states,” he said, anyone with “unintended, ill-informed opinions” about the industry.

Whatever the case, he said, the result is the same: an unrealistic call for the world to move quickly away from fossil fuels “when we know that oil and gas and coal, there’s not going to be an alternative to them for decades to come.”

Anyone with “unintended, ill-informed opinions” about the industry? Could be a pretty big group.

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NERC, FERC, and FRCC agree on 2008 Florida blackout

March 10, 2010

Michael Giberson

From a NERC press release:

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC) have reached an agreement regarding the role of the FRCC Reliability Coordinator in the February 26, 2008 power outage that left nearly one million homes and businesses in the state without electricity…. Under the agreement, FRCC will pay a $350,000 civil penalty, to be split equally between the United States Treasury and NERC.

The agreement closes a joint NERC-FERC investigation into FRCC’s part in the event. Funds received by NERC will be used to offset its operating expenses, which are otherwise collected through allocations to load-serving entities in the U.S. and Canada.

The agreement is available at: http://www.nerc.com/files/Order_FRCC_Settlement_03052010.pdf.

The agreement contains a summary of the events leading to the Florida blackout:

4.  On February 26, 2008, portions of the lower two-thirds of the State of Florida experienced a loss of load event more commonly referred to as the Florida Blackout. The event led to the loss of 22 transmission lines, 4,300 MW of generation, and 3,650 MW of customer service or load.

5.  The event originated at the Flagami Substation on the FPL system when a field engineer was diagnosing a piece of BES transmission equipment that had previously malfunctioned. In the process, he disabled two levels of protection on equipment energized and connected to the BES and a “fault” (short circuit) occurred that resulted in transmission outages in the vicinity of the fault as well as generation and distribution outages across portions of the southern two-thirds of the state. The disabling of protection introduced the potential for much more significant contingencies within the FRCC footprint, but the operator fulfilling the RC function was not informed that any protection had been disabled and therefore could not and did not operate the system recognizing these contingencies.

6. At the time of the event, the FPL System Operator was also acting as the RC. Immediately after the event, he delegated his RC responsibilities to a NERC-certified operator present in the control center, but who was not involved in operations that day. The original operator maintained responsibility for the FPL system. The new operator performing the RC function then had to assess the extent of the impacted load and canvass the system operators state-wide in order to initiate restoration. During the event, when issuing directives, the RC operators did not use the three-step communication process, direct-repeat-acknowledge. Nonetheless, restoration of the system occurred in a relatively reliable and expeditious manner.

In October 2009, Florida Power and Light was assessed a $25 million civil penalty for its role in the blackout and agreed to make several improvements to systems and practices affecting reliability.

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Shifting policy extinguishes short-lived Spanish solar boom, fortunately

March 9, 2010

Michael Giberson

The New York Times has a fascinating story on the solar power industry boom and bust in Spain created by shifting public policies. Similar effects have been observed from shifts in subsidy support for renewable power development in the United States, though because the subsidy was smaller and spread over a larger area the consequences were not so dramatic as described in the Spanish solar policy case.

The renewable power industry usually takes these boom-and-bust cycles as evidence that long-lasting subsidies are needed, but it may just signal that the subsidies are poorly designed and so neither economically nor politically sustainable.

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In dreams begin responsibilities: European electric grid expansion version

March 8, 2010

Michael Giberson

Today ten companies announce “Friends of the Supergrid,” a group dedicated to promoting policy support for a massive power grid to link offshore wind resource areas to European power markets. The project would also enhance the ability to trade power between regions. The group complements the “North Seas Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative” announced in December 2009, but appears to have a somewhat broader scope.

Since I’m more focused on U.S. policy and markets, I’m not sure how these developments relate to two other very large scale transmission projects proposed for Europe, the SuperSmart Grid and the Desertec concept.

All of these project announcements represent pretty large scale dreams, but typically they are short on the responsibilities side of thing. Who’ll pay for a project that the Financial Times suggests may cost hundreds of billions of Euros?

The United States faces similar issues. Dreams of significant electric power generation from renewable sources appeal to many people (see also EWITS), but who wants the responsibility of paying for the needed transmission enhancements? That part of the dream remains a bit fuzzy. Hoping to help develop policy is the newly formed Coalition for Fair Transmission Policy, a group of mostly East Coast utilities that mostly don’t want to pay a lot to bring wind power resources in the central U.S. to their regions.

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Pat Wood joins the ranks of energy bloggers

March 5, 2010

Michael Giberson

The Houston Chronicle has added another voice to its roster of energy bloggers: Pat Wood III.  Wood is former chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and before that chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (though around here they usually list those two items the other way.  In order of importance, you know).

The blog, Wood on the Wires, is subtitled “Energy infrastructure with Pat Wood.”  As the Chronicle’s NewsWatch: Energy blog says in its introduction, “His inaugural post shows a bit of the humor that anyone who knows Pat is sure to recognize.”

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Market design for liberty!

March 4, 2010

Michael Giberson

At ThinkMarkets, Roger Koppl urges supporters of liberty to get into market design.  In effect Koppl says: it isn’t especially useful to oppose the growth of government and hold high the beacon of freedom and prosperity, if there is no way to get from here to there.  What is useful is finding a way to bridge the gap.

I’m a fan of this way of thinking. One reason I advocate “restructuring” the electric power industry instead of “deregulation,” is that I think that restructuring is the faster way of achieving the good things that can come from the decentralization of valuation and control (i.e., increased liberty) in electric power markets.

Koppl is too modest when he mentions his own work: (“My work on improving forensic science in the criminal justice system is an example outside the usual context of ‘deregulation.’ See here and here.“)  His work on the flaws inherent in government monopolization of forensic data collection and analysis is original and important.

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Frankel surveys the natural resource curse literature

March 3, 2010

Michael Giberson

We’ve mentioned the “natural resource curse” a few times here.  Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel provides a recent and thorough overview of the literature in “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey” with a helpful focus on what policies resource rich companies can consider to mitigate the curse. Abstract:

It is striking how often countries with oil or other natural resource wealth have failed to grow more rapidly than those without. This is the phenomenon known as the Natural Resource Curse. The principle is not confined to individual anecdotes or case studies, but has been borne out in econometric tests of the determinants of economic performance across a comprehensive sample of countries. The paper considers six aspects of commodity wealth, each of interest in its own right, but each also a channel that some have suggested could lead to sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of manufacturing, civil war, poor institutions, and the Dutch Disease. The paper concludes with a consideration of promising ideas for institutions that could help a country that is rich in, say, oil overcome the pitfalls of the Curse and achieve good economic performance. They include indexation of oil contracts, hedging of export proceeds, denomination of debt in terms of oil, Chile-style fiscal rules, a monetary target that emphasizes product prices, transparent commodity funds, and lump-sum distribution.

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Wind power and natural gas-fired power and power market design

March 3, 2010

Michael Giberson

The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy article by Russel Gold on the behind-the-scenes struggle over cost allocation and performance obligations between wind power producers and conventional generators.  Tension over how variable resources participate in markets have been simmering for years, but wind power and other intermittent resources have been too small to worry too much about.  Now wind power is edging into the big leagues and the rules begin to matter (e.g.: “Big blow boosts Texas wind record“).  The article focuses on the ERCOT power market in Texas, where the action is hottest, but the same kinds of issues arise in other markets.

From the WSJ:

Many environmental groups talk of how wind and relatively clean-burning natural gas can partner to displace dirtier coal, creating a path to power the U.S. while releasing fewer greenhouse gases. A bitter fuel fight in Texas points to a different future: one in which gas and wind are foes.

The gas and wind factions have been clashing over the state’s operating rules for the past several months. The gas people say the playing field is tilted in wind’s favor; wind accuses gas of trying to snuff out the nascent wind energy sector.

[...]

At the heart of the battle is a fight over the vicissitudes of wind itself. The wind industry argues that since it can’t control when the wind blows, it shouldn’t be held to the same rules that require everyone else to make payments when they fail to deliver promised power. The natural-gas generators say everyone should operate under the same rules, and lament that wind’s success is merely coming at the expense of another relatively clean energy source.

[...]

One grievance: Coal, nuclear and gas operators must pay for their own backup if an operational or maintenance problem prevents them from delivering power as promised. But if wind generators fail to deliver promised power because the wind doesn’t blow, the cost of backing up wind power companies is spread among all the generators, state officials say. This puts an unfair burden on nonwind generators, says the gas faction.

For a closer look at the behind-the-scenes battle, try searching the ERCOT website for information about “voltage ride through” requirements for wind generators or the actions of (and reactions to) the Wind Cost Allocation Task Force.  If you drill down beyond the meeting schedules and status reports, all the way down to the presentations, reports, and comments filed by individual parties, things can get a little sharp.

For example, this recent presentation opposing recommendations of the Wind Cost Allocation Task Force uses terms like “fundamentally flawed,” “unfortunate squandering of resources,” “solutions … in search of a largely non-existent problem,” “arbitrary,” “would thwart public policy goals of the State of Texas.” Thems fighting words, and that’s just from page 2 of a 15 page presentation. On page 8, there is the suggestion of “serious anti-trust concerns.”

One of the page 2 phrases is right on target: “not consistent with principles of sound market design.” Unfortunately it isn’t until p. 13 that any market design principles actually get raised by the presenter.  Not surprisingly, the presentation itself seems a bit cavalier in its own use of “the principles of sound market design,” invoking principle when principle is convenient and pleading overall policy benefits when principles are inconvenient. But the principles mentioned are a start: cost causation, non-discrimination, and something about allocating costs to motivate “proper market behavior.”

The way forward, in ERCOT’s committees and in other power market design efforts, is in the systematic working out of principles of sound market design to be invoked in these kinds of discussions.

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Rapier on Bloom Energy: Hype is a two-edged sword

March 2, 2010

Michael Giberson

Robert Rapier on Bloom Energy.  Jumping straight to the end, his conclusion:

Bloom Energy looks like both Plug Power and Range Fuels to me. It is a company that is attempting to produce energy cheaper than all those who came before using known technology – and using hype to attract investors. And if Bloom Energy fails to deliver, they will learn just like Range Fuels that hype is a two-edged sword.

Rapier, with a modesty both rare and valuable among the blogging class, observes that fuel cells are not his specialty. He leaves to others the task of assessing the technology.  But his background in biofuels and alternative energy prepares him well to recognize revolutionary-technology hype, and he thinks he has seen this story before.

(Plug Power is a company that promised to do in 2000 the same kind of thing that Bloom Energy promises now.  A New York Times story from that year describes Plug Power as “developing refrigerator-sized cells that run on natural gas or propane for use as home power sources.”  Plug Power, still around, does make and sell fuel cells, but apparently isn’t profitable and hasn’t, yet, revolutionized the electric power industry.)

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Girl Scout cookie price gouging?

March 2, 2010

Michael Giberson

Michael Finney observes that Girl Scout cookies sell at different prices in different locations, and he asks (tongue in cheek), is it “Girl Scout cookie price gouging?”

No, actually it is more like zone pricing price discrimination – setting the price to a level that the local market will bear.

(EDITED, see comments for explanation).

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