Archive for November, 2010

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Reactions to the 60 Minutes program “Shaleionaires”

November 15, 2010

Michael Giberson

Last night CBS News show 60 Minutes ran a piece on shale gas development (video link, text link).  The consensus among folks who have been following the issue is that while the story didn’t break new ground, it presumably raised the profile of the issue a bit.

The Times-Leader (Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania) story presents a good overview of what the 60 Minutes piece did well and what they may have missed.  Here is just part of the newspaper report:

Chris Tucker, of EnergyInDepth.org, an organization that promotes the benefits of natural gas drilling, said the segment was “fairly balanced,” although the show didn’t get everything right.

“I think they did a great job of telling the story of real people, everyday people, all across the country whose lives have changed for the better thanks to the development of this clean, American resource,” Tucker said.

“They didn’t quite get it right when they attempted to venture into the regulatory history of hydraulic fracturing. The reality is that fracturing technology is among the most thoroughly regulated procedures that takes place at the wellsite, which is a big reason why it’s been able to compile such a solid record of safety and performance over the past 60 years of commercial use.”

Travis Windle, representing the Marcellus Shale Coalition, said “having ‘60 Minutes’ underscore the enormously positive benefits of this revolution … speaks to how transformational this development is for our nation.”

It’s also important for viewers to understand, Windle said, that Pennsylvania has a long and well-documented history of naturally occurring methane entering private water wells.

“It will take private water well standards and fact-based reporting on pre-existing methane in water wells from shallow sources of contamination to demonstrate how safe shale gas development is,” he said.

Tom Jiunta, founder and president of the Gas Drilling Awareness Coalition, provided a viewpoint from the opposite end of the spectrum.

While [Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey] McClendon noted that natural gas is a clean burning fuel, scientists, Jiunta said, have estimated that the diesel fumes from the thousands of trucks that transport the water and machinery, the diesel engines from the compressor stations used to pump the gas through the pipelines and the engines used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing, along with the natural leakage involved in methane escaping from the pipelines make the process one of the dirtiest.

More reactions:

Most of the reactions are opposed to fracking and would have stressed the hazards more than 60 Minutes did, the exception in this list is Bob McCarthy Writes.

I found the program fairly balanced, too.  Sort of like the documentary Haynesville, except shifting the emphasis from the landowners to the talking heads, and with Leslie Stahl and a bit of Gasland theater edited in.

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More economists thinking about Peak Oil

November 15, 2010

Michael Giberson

I’m sure I haven’t yet come to grips with the views expressed by commenters on my last post about economics and peak oil, but here is another paper on economics, Hubbert’s Peak, and peak oil.  In short the authors  model resource extraction scenarios in the manner that economists sometimes do, and conclude that the timing of the peak production will be determined by “above the ground” factors such as cost of production, oil prices and political constraints on access to resources rather than “below the ground” geological factors.

Note that the economist views I’ve cited from time to time – from CERA/Yergin to James Smith and now Pierre-Noël Giraud at CERNA and colleagues from EDF-R&D in France – are not denying that petroleum is an exhaustible resource nor that production will peak.  But, and speaking just for myself now, I am denying that the date of the peak is particularly significant and that sometime shortly after the peak we will face any kind of significant social strife, economic collapse, or other major drama. I’m stuck in a “business as usual” pose, because I expect business as usual.

More specifically, I expect over time petroleum will become expensive relative to other energy sources, and we will substitute away from petroleum and toward alternatives as that happens.  Of course it is already true in niches – there is a reason we don’t have kerosene lamps in our homes anymore and remote flashing roadside signs are solar powered – and the niches will grow as alternatives begin to make more sense.  Eventually, petroleum will become the niche fuel in an energy economy mostly running on other sources.  I don’t expect the social trauma associated with this transition to be any more wrenching than the shift from wood to coal or coal to oil.

If you think I am wrong, I’m willing to be educated.  But note that it will take quite of bit of educating to get me to drop economist habits of thought, so the simpler way to convert me to another way of thinking about peak oil is to point to an analysis with a reasonable economic foundation. I encourage commenters to direct me to their favorite such analysis.

NOTE: Here is the authors’ abstract for the paper, “Hubbert’s Oil Peak Revisited by a Simulation Model“:

As conventional oil reserves are declining, the debate on the oil production peak has become a burning issue. An increasing number of papers refer to Hubbert’s peak oil theory to forecast the date of the production peak, both at regional and world levels. However, in our views, this theory lacks microeconomic foundations. Notably, it does not assume that exploration and production decisions in the oil industry depend on market prices. In an attempt to overcome these shortcomings, we have built an adaptative model, accounting for the behavior of one agent, standing for the competitive exploration-production industry, subjected to incomplete but improving information on the remaining reserves.

Our work yields challenging results on the reasons for an Hubbert type peak oil, lying mainly “above the ground”, both at regional and world levels, and on the shape of the production and marginal cost trajectories.

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University positions available in smart grid, power systems, and more

November 13, 2010

Michael Giberson

Texas Tech University’s Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering is seeking applicants for several positions related to electric power and energy systems more generally. Most interesting to our readers may be the new Whitacre Endowed Chair in Smart Grid Technologies position and a tenure track position in power and energy systems.

Excepts from the job announcement for the Whitacre Endowed Chair in Smart Grid Technologies:

This endowed chair position is one of the three endowed professorships created to establish a world class energy research program at the Texas Tech University and increase the potential for synergistic collaborations.

Applicants must have a PhD in Electrical Engineering or Computer Engineering or a related field with significant experience in teaching and sponsored research.

It is anticipated that the successful candidate will be an internationally recognized leader in his or her field as demonstrated by such metrics as the strong record of externally sponsored research, peer reviewed publication and citation records, and national recognitions such as fellowships in technical societies and major awards.

From the tenure track position annoucement:

The Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) is inviting applications for a tenure track position at the assistant/associate professor level. A Ph.D. in Electrical and Computer Engineering or a closely related field is required.

The candidate should have a background in research related to energy systems such as utility power systems, power systems dynamics & stability, power electronics, renewable energy, hybrid energy systems, or pulsed power systems. This offering is part of the overall strategic goal of the College and the University to play a major role in Energy related endeavors. The ECE department already has a world class program in Pulsed Power and several faculty members in the Power Systems & Power Electronics areas.

In addition, the College of Engineering is seeking to fill  other endowed energy-related positions: the Don, Kay, and Clay Cash Foundation Engineering Chair in Wind Energy; the Whitacre Endowed Chair in Energy, in the Mechanical Engineering department; the Whitacre Chair in Energy Science and Engineering, in the Chemical Engineering department;  the Jack Maddox Distinguished Engineering Chair in Sustainable Energy (areas of interest include energy efficiency, biofuels, wind power, tidal power, geothermal, and energy storage);  and the Donovan Maddox Distinguished Engineering Chair in solar power.  Here is a link to a general statement of the Engineering college’s energy area strategy.

Across campus, the Texas Tech University School of Law is seeking someone for a tenure track position in property law and natural resources , energy or agriculture law.

We don’t normally do many job announcements here at KP, but we’re interested in smart grid technology so it seemed worth mentioning.  (And once I started mentioning energy related positions, I thought I’d go ahead and mention all that I could find.)

PLEASE NOTE: I don’t know much about these announcements beyond what they say in the announcements and I don’t have any influence over the hiring decisions, so there is little point emailing me asking about these opportunities.

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The problem with “Peak Oil” from an economist’s point of view

November 12, 2010

Michael Giberson

The National Geographic Daily News blog cites a new International Energy Agency report that pins 2006 as the year in which oil production rates attained a pace that will not be again matched. Or, in other words, 2006 was the year of “Peak Oil.”  That projection is just one scenario of several looked at by IEA, but in their view this scenario is the most likely outcome.

The Daily News blogger admits that the “peak” is not expected to be followed by significant declines – rather, IEA projects a leveling out of conventional oil production at levels just below 2006′s peak for at least the next 25 years and minor increases in unconventional oil production and minor increases in natural gas liquids production.  In short, the IEA’s report more resembles CERA’s undulating plateau story than peak anything.  Yet we are told the “age of cheap oil is over” and the consequences of relying on on natural gas liquids and unconventional fuels are “stark.”

A more reasonable characterization of IEA’s most likely scenario is that it estimates oil production will remain steady for the foreseeable future at around the level attained in 2006.  Scary? Rioting in the Streets? Stark?

No? Well, are you at least mildly concerned?

A lot of peak oil analysis leaves economists cold. After all, production levels are in part a result of production choices, and in markets production is driven in part by costs and prices.  The popular Hubbert’s Curve approach to modeling peak oil ignores all of this.  Here is a quote from a recent analysis by James L. Smith:

[Hubbert's model] is problematic for economists since the volume (and timing) of ultimate recovery presumably depends upon price — which in turn depends upon demand, interest rates, and the cost of production — none of which are incorporated here. There is no assurance in Hubbert’s model that the projected rates of future production will actually clear the market. Although the prediction is simple, it is not credible due to neglect of these fundamental economic factors.

Smith also notes that “Empirical tests of [Hubbert-style analysis] … failed badly in predicting the peak, which reinforces economists’ theoretical objections to the underlying method.”

[And to be clear, I'm not asserting the IEA modeling is "peak oil analysis." So far as I can seek, the peak attribution was that of the Nat Geo writer, not directly drawn from IEA's projections.]

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Negative Power Prices in ERCOT West: 2009 and 2010 through September

November 11, 2010

Michael Giberson

Below are charts showing data on ERCOT West zone power prices for the 2009 and for 2010 January-September with a focus on negative prices.  The charts were derived from data provided through the ERCOT website, on their “Balancing Energy Services Market Clearing Prices for Energy Annual Report” page.

These charts were prepared in the same way, including use of the same axis scale, as earlier charts showing 2008 data in order to make comparison easier.  General discussion of negative prices in ERCOT West is at “Frequent negative power prices in the West region of ERCOT result from wasteful renewable power subsidies.”  Additional discussion in “2009 power prices in ERCOT’s West zone: a mix of wind power, natural gas prices, transmission constraints, and (inefficient) congestion management practices.”

As the histogram charts show, negative prices in 2009 are not quite so negative as in 2008, and negative prices in 2010 are not so negative as in 2010.  Likely causes for the somewhat less extreme negative prices are changes in zonal congestion managements prices in mid-2008 (more frequent use of “out-of-market” adjustments that don’t directly affect the zonal balancing energy market price) and transmission additions and improvements over the period.

2010 January-September

ERCOT_W_Freq_Neg_Prices_2010-jan-sep

Frequency of negative prices in ERCOT West, January-September 2010

ERCOT_W_Hist_Neg_Prices_2010-jan-sep

Frequency of negative prices by price bin, ERCOT West, January-September 2010

ERCOT_W_Avg_Prices_2010-jan-sep

Daily average prices in ERCOT West, January-September 2010

2009 January-December

ERCOT_W_Hist_Neg_Prices_2009

Frequency of negative prices in ERCOT West, 2009

ERCOT_W_Freq_Neg_Prices_2009

Frequency of negative prices by price bin, ERCOT West, 2009

ERCOT_W_Avg_Prices_2009

Daily average prices in ERCOT West, 2009

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Top 10 longest periods with consecutive negative power prices, ERCOT West

November 11, 2010

Michael Giberson

ERCOT recently set a new record for consecutive pricing intervals below $0/MWh for balancing energy market prices in the ERCOT West region: 39.25 hours of negative prices.  The episode started at 7:45 PM on Saturday, November 6  and the negative prices continued until 11:00 AM on Monday, November 8.

 

ERCOT_W_Top_Ten_Consecutive_Negatives_2010-nov

Top 10 Consecutive Negative Power Prices in ERCOT West, as of November 10, 2010

 

The previous record of 34 hours began at 11:15 PM on Sunday, March 7, and continued until 9:15 AM on Tuesday, March 9.  Most of these records begin on weekends or holidays and are the product of low electrical load and high wind power output in conjunction with other system factors.

Notably, while the overall frequency of negative pricing intervals is down from 2008, 6 of the top 10 periods (and 4 of the top 5 periods) with continuous negative prices are in 2010.

IN (SOMEWHAT) RELATED NEWS: ERCOT is still on track for the switch to a nodal market design, coming up on December 1.  The change should allow for more efficient use of the generation fleet connected to ERCOT and more efficient use of the transmission grid.  All that added efficiency (even if only 1 or 2 percent improvements) should add up to slightly lower prices on average.

More effective use of the transmission grid should reduce the congestion that contributes to negative prices in the ERCOT West zone, but it is a complex switchover so to some degree we will just sit back, watch and learn.

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Who should be able to bid for oil and gas leases on federal land?

November 10, 2010

Michael Giberson

At PERC Reports, Shawn Regan argues that rules preventing direct participation by environmentalists in federal land lease auctions leaves few options available to such groups other than lobbying for political protection (or worse):

Under current federal leasing rules, leases cannot be held by environmental groups for non-consumptive use. Even if they are the highest bidders, rules require that leaseholders must develop their parcels, precluding such groups from holding them for habitat protection or recreational use. In 1996, an environmental group that submitted the highest bid for a 275-acre timber allotment in Okanogan National Forest in Washington was disqualified because the group did not plan to cut any trees. Politically powerful ranching, timber, and oil interests have kept the bidding process free of competition from environmental groups, thereby keeping leases at below-market levels.

Left out of the commodity leasing and sale options, environmentalists have turned not only to “monkey-wrenching,” but to the political system as a means to set aside land for preservation. This method has largely been successful for environmental groups, who spend millions each year lobbying the government to set aside land into the public domain. Since 1960, over 35 million acres have been added to the federal estate, which is the equivalent of adding an area greater than the size of Rhode Island each year. However, the political allocation of protected lands is made with little regard to the opportunities foregone of alternative uses of the land. By contrast, in a truly competitive bidding process, where environmental groups can bid alongside the oil and gas industry, the winners must face the tradeoffs associated with drilling or preserving the land.

One of the troubles with relying on political allocation is that it encourages expansive rhetoric about the fragility of the ecosystem and how every acre is sacred.  Relying on competitive market allocation encourages consideration of how the ecosystem works, which parcels are particularly important for their low-impact recreation or non-use values, and how much these things are worth.

Maybe you think this idea is pie-in-the-sky dreaming. Think again:

Some states have experimented with allowing environmental groups to bid on state land leases. In 1996, the Forest Guardians outbid a rancher for 644 acres of damaged riparian habitat in New Mexico. The area is now held for nongrazing use, which has restored the watershed’s sensitive ecosystem. Since then, Arizona and Montana have begun to allow private owners and nonprofit groups to bid on state grazing allotments for alternative uses such as nature or recreational leases and other forms of joint land management. In 1999, a coalition of environmental groups and private individuals bought the right not to harvest timber on 25,000 acres of Loomis State Forest in Washington. A remarkable $16.5 million was raised in just one year by more than 5,000 people to protect the forest in the equivalent of a conservation easement, which will remain entirely roadless and serve as important habitat for grizzly bears, fishers, and the Canadian lynx.

Regan said, “By inviting private owners and nonprofit groups into the bidding process, competition could promote cooperation between environmentalists and the oil industry.”  That seems like a great idea for the right combination of people.

A oil and gas developer and environmental group willing to work together could pool resources and bid as a team to get what they wanted from a parcel: the oil and gas developer pursues the petroleum in a way that satisfies the environmental group’s interest in protecting the rest of the value of the land. The contract laying out mutual obligations of the two partners could be drawn up in advance and made contingent on success in the auction.  If the team wins, the contract is in place to manage the cooperation.

Obviously not all environmental groups (or all oil companies) would be suitable for such partnerships. A group philosophically opposed to the use of fossil fuels won’t be able to find common ground with a developer, and some oil companies may be unwilling to change their operating methods to accommodate the interests of potential environmental group partners.  That’s fine.  Especially in cases in which there are potentially significant mineral resources and significant environmental values in the same location, a team of bidders that aimed to get the most value from both kinds of resources should be able to outbid competitors that only value the parcel for one part of its resource.

Of course, if this team-bidding is such a great idea, why isn’t it already happening? Unlike a pure environmental-group bid that would be proscribed by rules requiring development of the oil and gas resources, a mixed team as suggested would be planning to develop the oil and gas. Such bids should already be permitted, but we don’t see them.  Why? Here are some ideas: (A) environmental groups find a better return-on-investment from political lobbying, or (B) maybe existing regulations preserve enough of the environmental value that the marginal improvement possible, from the point of view of the environmental group, isn’t worth the cost, or (C) oil and gas companies judge the added expense is not worth the cost of cooperation, or (D) environmental groups and the oil and gas industry just don’t trust each other enough to contract together.

But whether or not enviro-oilco teams would bid, it is still a good idea to open up the lease auctions to a broader range of competition.

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Speaking of smoke: Oregon’s only coal power plant may convert to biomass, but plan has many unknowns

November 9, 2010

Michael Giberson

The High Country News reports that Portland General Electric is considering shutting down its Boardman, OR, coal-fired power plant, with costs of Clean Air Act compliance cited as the cause.  However, another option under consideration is conversion of the plant to biomass, more specifically converted to use a torrefied Asian cane that would be grown specifically to fuel the plant.

But it’ll take years of study to determine if that would work, plus at least $600 million to convert the plant, install additional pollution controls, and build a torrefaction facility. To reduce transport costs, PGE also would need to grow as much as 100,000 acres’ worth of cane on arable land within 50 miles of the plant. “It’s a giant experiment,” says Jaisen Mody, PGE’s general manager of generation projects, “with a lot of challenges.”

Logistical and financial challenges have long plagued biomass power plants, regardless of fuel source. The industry peaked in the mid-’90s; since then, it’s been hampered by supply difficulties, deregulation and the relatively low cost of fossil fuels. This summer, plans for a $500 million, 107-megawatt hybrid solar thermal and biomass plant in Fresno County, Calif., were scrapped; developers blamed project economics and an inadequate local biomass supply. An $8 million plant built in 2007 to power a Nevada prison with forest waste was shut down in September, after running into wood-supply problems and local clean-air standards more stringent than the federal government’s. Still, “if the world puts a price on carbon,” says Lee Rybeck Lynd, biomass expert and professor of engineering at Dartmouth College, “we’ll see better economics and greater activity in biomass.”

That raises a more fundamental question: Just how green is biomass?

The article continues with a discussion of the “how green is biomass” question. Worth contemplation if you are interested in renewable power.

An assessment of “The Environmental Impact of Biofuels,” to be published in the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics concluded:

Biofuels are the most land-intensive form of energy production. The land requirements for biofuels have potential negative consequences for biodiversity and GHG emissions by causing, either directly or indirectly, the conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland. Although the magnitudes of these effects are poorly constrained, we can identify strategies to mitigate these effects. Development that follows the mitigation hierarchy can dramatically improve outcomes for biodiversity. The mitigation hierarchy follows these steps for development: (a) avoid sensitive areas, (b) minimize impacts through best practices, (c) restore areas after use, and (d ) fund compensatory offsite mitigation. In the case of conversion to biofuel crops, avoiding sensitive areas is perhaps the most important and complex of these steps. [Citations omitted.]

Since the PG&E proposal would convert existing crop land (given the area, wheat is likely the displaced crop) to biomass plants, it avoids direct conversion of undeveloped lands to agricultural use. On the other hand, unless abandoned or marginal crop land it used then at the margin either some other farm land must be added to replace the lost production or food costs will rise.

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Smoke filled rooms, solar power, and the long shadow of grid parity

November 9, 2010

Michael Giberson

An rambling complaint surfaced at TriplePundit.com (slogan: people, planet, profit.) linking a “number of articles questioning the economic viability of solar power [which] recently hit the streets” to “a new, well-oiled regime coming to power in Washington.” We could stop right here to consider that articles questioning the economic viability of solar power pretty much stretch back to the pre-historical era, or at least since solar power has been seriously contemplated as a resource. Such articles have continued to “hit the streets” at a pretty regular pace ever since. (The exceptions are places the grid doesn’t reach and various small market niches.)

But making the TriplePundit complaint funnier was the first article cited was Marc Gunther’s “The Hidden Cost of Solar Power,” which “hit the streets” a week before the new House majority was elected.  It is hard to imagine Gunther as some sort of anti-solar shill working for well-oiled Republicans.  Much easier to imagine is that Gunther is just collecting data points and assembling them into a story that reflects his view of the data.

Making the TriplePundit complaint still funnier was this bit of math on subsidies for energy resources: “Then there is the oft-mentioned complaint about subsidies. According to the Dept of Energy, in the year 2007, fossil fuels received 66% of all source-specific subsidies, while all renewables received 59% (nuclear received the rest).”  The rest of what?

The complaint also misuses the economies of scale argument to argue for subsidies to boost solar power production (“It’s a well-known fact that as industries mature, they drive costs down in any number of ways.”) Probably most industries do drive down costs as they mature – industries that don’t control costs end up not surviving to maturity.  But there is nothing automatic about economies of scale; subsidizing an industry so it can grow big does not necessarily inspire it to reduce costs.

Perhaps the tentacles of the well-oiled regime coming to power in Washington extend around the globe, because here is another recent article questioning the economic viability of solar power, this one from London, “Solar mania will cast a shadow over Britain“:

One of the things for which Britain is justly famous is its lush, green, spectacularly beautiful countryside. One of the things for which Britain is not at all famous is its endless sunshine. Put these two basic facts together and you might reach one obvious conclusion: that any taxpayer-funded scheme to carpet that unspoilt landscape in solar panels in order to generate electricity at nearly three times the market cost is bound to end in disaster.

You know this. I know this. Maybe one of us should have a word with Chris Huhne.

In a scheme so bizarre and suicidally destructive you’d think it could only be the work of a devilish Britainophobic double-agent, our Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change is planning to bribe farmers with billions of pounds of our money to turn their land into solar electricity plants.

Separately, the Arizona Star reports that the elusive grid-parity point is coming closer for solar.  Though the analysis on this point is weak, the story provides a good explanation of developments in Arizona’s solar power market.  The article said subsidized payback periods for homeowners can be about 10 years, but unsubsidized (i.e. considering the ratepayer and taxpayer contributions) that number is closer to 30 years.

 

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Democratic party promoted Libertarian candidates

November 8, 2010

Michael Giberson

Democratic candidates and party organizations sent out many mailers before the last election promoting Libertarian candidates for office.  Scott Gustafson, blogging at Arizona Economics, posts the flyer promoting Libertarian candidate Michael Shoen in a race for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, paid for by the Arizona Democratic Party. (Another example, from Indiana, and one from Illinois.)

Is the “liberaltarian dream” of Brink Lindsay and Will Wilkinson coming to fruition, are liberals finding common ground with small-government types?

No, these are really thinly disguised anti-GOP efforts seeking to peel of voters from the Republican candidate.  As Gustafson points out with a little election math, the tactic reveals that Democrats don’t think their own candidates are very appealing. Democrats must think it is more than twice as hard to convince a prospective Republican voter to switch to the Democrat as it is to get the voter to switch to Libertarian (at least among the households targeted for this type of political advertising).

AFTERMATH:

  • In Indiana case mentioned above, the Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly won re-election to the House of Representatives over the his Republican challenger by about 1,500 votes.  Libertarian candidate Mark Vogel received 9,445 votes in the election, so the tactic may have been successful.
  • In the Illinois senate race, Republican Mark Kirk won by about 70,000 votes, the Libertarian candidate picked up over 86,000 votes and the Green candidate received over 116,000 votes. (Not obvious if the tactic mattered for the results. No word on whether the GOP was mailing in favor of the Green party candidate in Illinois.)
  • In the Arizona race for the U.S. House, Republican Ben Quayle beat his Democratic rival by nearly 21,000 votes (in an admittedly heavily Republican district), significantly more than the 9,191 votes picked up by the “Democratic-backed” libertarian candidate.

Indiana Libertarian Vogel is exploring the possibility of a campaign finance complaint against the Democrats.

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