Archive for June, 2011

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Valuing ecosystem services is difficult and controversial

June 24, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

I find two things especially intriguing about environmental economics. One is the pervasiveness of ill-defined property rights as causes of environmental issues, and how it opens up one’s thinking to look at environmental issues as challenges of ill-defined property rights. Another is the tension between the anthropocentric nature of environmental economics (and economics itself, naturally, as a study of human action and human choices) and the argument for some form of autonomy or moral standing for “the environment” on its own.

Thus the burgeoning research on ecosystem services is particularly interesting. As described in its Wikipedia entry:

Humankind benefits from a multitude of resources and processes that are supplied by natural ecosystems. Collectively, these benefits are known as ecosystem services and include products like clean drinking water and processes such as the decomposition of wastes. While scientists and environmentalists have discussed ecosystem services for decades, these services were popularized and their definitions formalized by the United Nations 2004 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), a four-year study involving more than 1,300 scientists worldwide.[1] This grouped ecosystem services into four broad categories: provisioning, such as the production of food and water; regulating, such as the control of climate and disease; supporting, such as nutrient cycles and crop pollination; and cultural, such as spiritual and recreational benefits.

The attempt to estimate a value for ecosystem services is an effort to quantify the benefits provided to humans (there’s the anthropocentric part) of ecosystems, to give benchmarks for changes over time in those relationships (due to human or other actions), and to think about ways to define and enforce use rights in ecosystems in ways that will reflect the value of ecosystem benefits and their tradeoffs with other benefits and costs we face (there’s the property rights part).

Earlier this month the UK government published their first National Ecosystem Assessment report, using estimates of effects such as the reduction in health care costs associated with increased green space. From the BBC’s report on the study:

Services like pollination by insects, water and air purification by soils and plants, the flood alleviation provided by woods and marshes upstream of towns and cities, and even the value of living close to a green space in terms of savings to the NHS – a service the Government’s bean counters put at £300 per person per year.

According to Defra’s chief scientist, Dr Bob Watson, we’ve consistently failed to factor-in the billions of pounds these ecosystem services are worth to our economy.

See also this Yahoo article on the report. Analyses like this one are very difficult, because so much is hard to quantify; of the four dimensions, only provisioning and cultural (and within cultural, recreational is easier than spiritual) have any good ways to quantify the benefits. And not surprisingly, such estimates as these are controversial, either on the grounds of estimation specifics or on the grounds of “how can you try to place a monetary value on the environment?” (my students do a great job of answering that one!)

Research like this is quite interesting and useful, but another question is what to do with the results — it’s nice to have some estimate of the value of ecosystems among the four dimensions described above, but if degradation of ecosystems is reducing their ability to provide these benefits, how do we change environmental policy in ways to create use rights in ecosystems? Those use rights (and potentially the tradeability of those use rights) are an essential part of weighing the tradeoff between the value of the ecosystem services and the value of alternative activities that degrade those services.

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Enlightened economic history: honoring Joel Mokyr

June 24, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

Earlier this week on Twitter Tim Harford asked “Should economic students learn more econ history? … I learned none, feel poorer as a result.” Naturally, my immediate answer to that question was “Yes. Next question?” The cliché reason, avoiding the mistakes of the past, is only the first of the reasons to learn more economic history. Paraphrasing Deirdre McCloskey, economic history is a truly scientific discipline within economics — start with an interesting real-world puzzle or empirical question, combine attention to detail in gathering quantitative and qualitative data to understand the question and its context with well-grounded theory (both narrative and formal, but not “math for math’s sake”), and formulate your analysis of the real-world phenomenon that you are trying to understand. For that and several other reasons I’ve found that my background in economic history gives me a valuable context for analyzing modern electricity regulation.

I’ve been thinking about books I’d recommend to Tim to give him a general grounding in economic history, and the breadth and depth of the scholarship in economic history makes such a “short list” difficult. Most of the best economic history scholarship is focused on specific topics (technological change, political economy, banking, labor, education, industrial development, etc.). One great resource for folks like Tim who want to dip into economic history is the compendium of book reviews at EH.net, the website of the Economic History Association. The EH.net website also has a compendium of course syllabi that provide good resources for getting a broad, general grounding, usually from a geographic perspective (US, Britain, Europe, Latin America, Asia).

Among the works I’d recommend to Tim are, of course, the works of my thesis advisor and colleague Joel Mokyr, particularly Lever of Riches. Lever of Riches provides a wonderful introduction to the details of technological change and its relationship to economic growth, and an economic framework for analyzing and understanding that relationship. Working with Joel while he was working on Lever of Riches changed my world. His subsequent work on the role of useful knowledge, ideas, and values in shaping the ways that technological change contributes to economic growth has been an important contribution to our economic understanding and a true model of scholarship.

And I’m not alone; Joel has had over 30 graduate students who have gone on to make their own valuable contributions to economic history scholarship and teaching (and has 7 or 8 current graduate students between economics and history!). This week, we all gathered, along with some of Joel’s current and former colleagues and co-authors to celebrate Joel’s scholarship, ideas, mentoring, collegiality, and friendship. I was pleased and honored to help organize this festschrift conference, which included papers from several of Joel’s students, as well as Joel talking about one of his current projects (thanks to Mauricio Drelichman for the photo):

Joel Mokyr is a wonderful scholar, teacher, colleague and friend, and I am pleased that we have had this opportunity to celebrate those relationships.

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Recommended in the comments: Ten Fracking Things Everyone Should Know

June 20, 2011

Michael Giberson

Commenter “Fat Man” recommends Peter C. Glover’s essay in the Energy Tribune: “Ten Fracking Things Everyone Should Know.”  Number one on the list of things to know is “Hydraulic fracking has been around for 60 years. Developments made by U.S. engineers around 2008-9 have simply made the process much more commercially viable.”

Relatedly, Greg Rehmke considers some implications of the oil production boom from the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas at Master Resource.

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Don’t bet against Netflix, at least not now

June 20, 2011

Michael Giberson

Jonathan Knee argues that Netflix is succeeding the way big media companies always have succeeded, in a time where such opportunities are less frequent than before. From The Atlantic:

The economic structure of the media business is not fundamentally different from that of business in general. The most-prevalent sources of industrial strength are the mutually reinforcing competitive advantages of scale and customer captivity. Content creation simply does not lend itself to either, while aggregation is amenable to both.

[...]

Netflix’s success in streaming video is therefore hardly paradoxical. The company sits squarely in the tradition of the most-successful media businesses: aggregators with strong economies of scale and customer captivity.

There is a lot more explication at the link.

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Science, law, and regulation of fracking for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale

June 18, 2011

Michael Giberson

The current issue of the Energy Law Journal includes an article examining the public policy history surrounding the use of hydraulic fracturing to develop natural gas in Pennsylvania and New York. The article, “Science and the Reasonable Development of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Resources in Pennsylvania and New York,” is by attorneys Lynn Kerr McKay, Ralph H. Johnson and Laurie Alberts Salita.

SYNOPSIS: A fair amount of controversy concerning the development of natural gas resources in the Marcellus Shale formation has accompanied the return of significant oil and gas exploration and production to Pennsylvania. One need only look at the news headlines and legislative and regulatory dockets to appreciate the diversity of issues and positions on those issues related to the Marcellus Shale region. A growing number of lawsuits and media reports give the impression that Marcellus Shale drilling and production operations – especially the process known as hydraulic fracturing – are indisputably harmful to both the environment and to those who live in the vicinity of the wells. Lawmakers and regulators have introduced myriad measures imposing additional oversight and operational requirements on Marcellus Shale producers. The economic, environmental, and human impact of such measures will be significant – which is exactly why unbiased and informed scientific evaluation of the potential link between Marcellus Shale production activities and environmental and health concerns is essential to appropriate judicial and regulatory decisions. The success of efforts to explore and develop Marcellus Shale natural gas resources requires continued critical and scientific evaluation of information concerning all aspects of the enterprise.

Also in the current ELJ, “Shale Gas in Poland – The Legal Framework for Granting Concessions for Prospecting and Exploration of Hydrocarbons, by Wojciech Bagiński.

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Art Carden on price gouging

June 17, 2011

Michael Giberson

Art Carden, in his Economic Imagination blog at Forbes.com, explains “Price Gouging Laws Hurt Storm Victims.”

How many people see natural disasters like the tornadoes in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri and say “we should be working to impede the recovery and make life harder for storm victims?” Probably no one. How many people see prices rise after natural disasters like the tornadoes in Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Joplin Missouri and say “we should prosecute ‘price gougers!’”? Probably a lot. And yet prosecuting price gougers makes life harder for storm victims.

I like Carden’s article not because he quotes my Regulation article on price gouging and gives me another reason to link to it (well, I like Carden’s article not only because…), but because he states the main problem with price gouging laws so clearly: “prosecuting price gougers makes life harder for storm victims.”

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Senate does vote to eliminate ethanol subsidies

June 16, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

A happy amendment to my excoriation of the Senate yesterday for their procedural crankiness in failing to pass the elimination of ethanol subsidies … today the proposal made like a phoenix and was put on the floor again (WSJ, sub reqd), this time passing 73-27. The author of the WSJ article is not sanguine about the bill passing in the House, but a girl can dream …

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Horwitz, Henderson, Hayek on the police state

June 16, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

On a subject too important to overlook … today Steve Horwitz wrote a short, clear argument providing evidence that we are indeed living in a police state. As evidence he offers 3 related phenomena:

  1. The immoral, ineffective, and financially irresponsible security theater we endure in the form of the Transportation Security Administration (as I’ve discussed previously here and here);
  2. The militarization of local police and the increase in activity, and the brutality of that activity, of SWAT teams and extensive inland border patrols; and
  3. Border patrol agents boarding trains and buses and demanding identification papers.

All of these actions are part of the growth of the national security state associated with the Orwellian-named PATRIOT Act. Sadly, I agree wholeheartedly with his conclusion:

When residents of the United States have a legitimate fear of being sexually abused by agents of the State when engaging in peaceful air travel, we live in a police state. …

When residents of the United States have serious reason to fear the door being busted down in the middle of the night by armed agents of the State despite having done nothing wrong, we live in a police state. …

When American citizens are stopped while traveling within their own state and asked to account for their whereabouts, we live in a police state. …

When innocent American citizens are told they should have “their papers” on them, we live in a police state. …

Since 9/11 the biggest threat to the American people is not radical Muslim terrorists, nor deranged domestic terrorists, but the terrorists with the blue uniforms, badges, and body armor. Their weapons of mass destruction are not bombs, but state-approved guns, latex-gloved hands, and a profound disregard for our rights. Until we stand up and say, “Enough!”these terrorists will keep winning and our rights will continue to be lost.

David Henderson agrees too, and reminds us today at EconLog of his excellent article last year about the growth of the surveillance state, “Life in the USSA“. David draws on Hayek’s arguments about the concentration of government power and the failure of economic central planning to argue that anti-terrorism central planning is also doomed to failure, for the same reasons … but politically powerful interests use fear-mongering arguments to instill a generalized perception that such centralized police and surveillance power are necessary protections. For that reason they also argue that decentralized adaptations, such as the hardening of cockpit doors and the widespread realization that we now have to pound the crap out of terrorists on planes rather than acquiescing to them, are insufficient. David’s entire argument is well worth reading, full of data and analysis.

This story of David’s is very telling, and should serve as another indication that we should, as Steve said, stand up and say Enough!

Three weeks after 9/11, I began a fall quarter class at the Naval Postgraduate School in which, on my first problem set, I stated Bush’s view that the terrorists were after us because of our freedom. This, I said in the question, is an hypothesis. How would you test Bush’s hypothesis, I asked. What data would you look for? Only about 2 people out of 50 refused to play, writing, essentially, that I was unpatriotic for questioning “the commander in chief.” The other 48 did play. I’ll never forget one of the answers. I wish I had photocopied it. The student, a U.S. military officer, wrote, “Congress and the President are busy, with the USA PATRIOT Act and intrusive security at airports, getting rid of our freedom. So if the President’s hypothesis is correct, there will be no more attacks.”

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French fracking fracus

June 16, 2011

Michael Giberson

There is oil in shale formations in France, possibly even shale oil under the Eiffel Tower, and at least for now it looks like that is where the oil will remain. According to a report by Bloomberg News, a parliamentary committee agreed on a proposal to ban hydraulic fracturing in the country, the full parliament is slated to vote on the issue later this month and the proposal could become law by July.

A parliamentary committee yesterday agreed on a ban that removed the possibility of fracking even for “scientific experiments.” Both houses of the French parliament are slated to vote on the bill this month and it could become law in July.

Companies that were planning to use the technique will have their permits canceled under the proposal, which also includes jail time and fines for fracking and the creation of a commission to oversee research and evaluation of unconventional oil and gas exploration.

The view from Paris:

“I’m against hydraulic fracturing,” French Environment Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet has said. “We have seen the results in the U.S.,” with its “devastated countryside” and “sullied water tables.”

The French Environment Minister concluded remarks to developers with, “Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time.”*

*Just kidding, but really – “devastated countryside” and “sullied water tables”? I guess if you know no more about fracking than you saw in Gasland and the New York Times maybe you’d think so, but surely standards for policy analysis should be higher than that.

[HT to FuelFix.]

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Economics of power market design compared unfavorably to climate science

June 16, 2011

Michael Giberson

From the Harvard Electricity Policy Group meeting in February 2011. By convention the meetings are off-the-record, so the speaker’s name is not identified in the summary:

I think the most important distinction between the fields of climate science and economics for me is the question of evidence. Science is characterized by a subtle interplay between conceptual models and the evidence that supports or contradicts them. There’s a rigorous process of analyzing and evaluating evidence and improving or discarding the conceptual models as the evidence dictates. In economics, evidence can often be harder to come by and more ambiguous in nature. This instance is a strong case in point. There is no real precedent. The markets are brand new. And with a few exceptions, the RTO regions have been basically in capacity surplus since the markets came into being for reasons having nothing to do with the capacity markets themselves.

Where evidence is lacking, theorists can find themselves somewhat less constrained. Under these circumstances, whichever side has the loudest voices or the most money or the most impressive resumes can dominate the conversation. This should never be mistaken as proof that their position are correct.

[...]

I’m aware that many will argue, and have argued, that a focus on market efficiency will in the long run lead to the greatest consumer benefit. This may be true in a nonexistent, two-sided perfect market with no barriers to entry. But it is a tenuous article of faith when applied to real electricity markets. And given the untold billions in costs to get to that uncertain future, it’s no wonder that consumer advocates basically unanimously are not eager to take that bet.

The implementation of capacity markets based on these unproven theories has already led, predictably, to the transfer of tens of billions of dollars of ratepayer wealth to generation owners. I say predictably because this outcome was clearly anticipated by all parties and articulated by many. The whole point was to raise costs. On the other hand, there’s not a shred of hard evidence that this process has led to new generation where it is most needed, or to avoided retirements of needed capacity or to cost-saving transmission investments. These are the ostensible purposes of the construct. There is no reason to believe that it would. It’s just too good an arrangement for existing generation owners as it is.

The speaker observes that capacity markets have also spurred development of demand-side resources, but this “positive benefit … has come at an astronomical cost.”

As an alternative to capacity markets, the speaker suggests a combination of state-sponsored investments, long term contracts, and short term spot markets. Not that he presents any evidence that this approach will work better for consumers, it just seems good to him. I wonder, scientifically speaking, why not just examine the existing evidence on prices and investments in “energy only” power markets in Texas, Alberta, and Australia?

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