Archive for June, 2011

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They can’t even pull off the ethanol subsidy repeal …

June 15, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

Although the federal government is actually in a budget crisis and our elected so-called representatives claim to be dealing with it, they are acting rather like they are in denial, or still embroiled in such petty partisan bickering that they refuse to make difficult choices with short-run costs and long-run benefits.

Take ethanol subsidies and tariff protections, on which the KP position for years has been for their elimination on both economic and environmental grounds. Now that even Al Gore admits that they were a mistake and have not delivered on lower emissions, lower use of fossil fuels, lower gasoline prices, and lower oil imports, can’t we finally just vote them off the island?

Apparently not. Yesterday the Senate had an opportunity to end the $6 billion in annual ethanol subsidies, which would take a nice chunk out of the budget deficit and chip away at the national debt; it would also provide a salutary psychological message to the American public that our elected so-called representatives are not as feckless as they appear.

Yet they failed to do so. If they cannot make a decision that is as patently obvious as this one, will they be able to decide on anything that will bring the budget away from the brink? If they can’t end ethanol subsidies, that does not portend well for avoiding default.

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Distortionary effects of three-tier liquor regulation, Wisconsin edition

June 15, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

As Jonathan Adler notes at the Volokh Conspiracy, the Wisconsin legislature is considering a piece of legislation that would change the regulations governing the production, wholesale distribution, and retail sale of beer in Wisconsin. The controversial provision in this legislation is one that prevents brewers from owning wholesale distributors, and the controversy arises primarily because of the possible effects on small craft brewers of a piece of legislation that is intended to blunt the market power of Anheuser-Busch. As described in a recent Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article:

The legislation, approved Tuesday night by the Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee, is designed to stop Anheuser-Busch from buying wholesale distributors, say its supporters, including a beer wholesalers lobbying group. Opponents say those fears are exaggerated, with craft brewers saying the legislation would hamper their growth prospects.

Most of the nation’s beer is sold by brewers to independent wholesalers, which earn a profit by reselling the beer to supermarkets, taverns and other retailers. That three-tier system has operated since Prohibition’s repeal, and was created to prevent brewers from forming monopolies making, distributing and selling beer – which existed before Prohibition. …

The proposal endorsed by the Joint Finance Committee is needed to avoid a similar court challenge in Wisconsin, and to prevent Anheuser-Busch from buying distributors, says Tim Roby, spokesman for the Wisconsin Beer Distributors Association. The proposal also is supported by MillerCoors LLC, Anheuser-Busch’s chief rival, and groups representing retailers, including the Tavern League of Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Grocers Association.

The legislation prohibits brewers from buying wholesale distributorships, while allowing brewers that produce up to 300,000 barrels annually to do their own wholesale distribution.

Some Wisconsin craft brewers do their own wholesale distribution. Others sell their beer primarily through wholesalers, while also doing limited self-distribution by selling beer at festivals or filling emergency orders from taverns. The state’s largest independent craft brewer, New Glarus Brewing Co., sold about 92,000 barrels in 2010.

MillerCoors, with its deep roots and strong market and employment presence in Wisconsin, supports the bill, while Anheuser Busch argues that the bill stifles competition.

The economics and politics of vertical integration are the issue here. Summarizing from a long post I wrote describing the three-tier system in 2002: before Prohibition, brewers did their own distribution to their own bars, pubs, and taverns, and profited handsomely with this strategy. With the repeal of Prohibition, federal law stipulated that wholesale liquor distribution must not cross state lines (I think of this as the Al Capone rule!), so with the growth of national-market brewers came independent wholesale distributors within each state. Over the past several decades, though, wholesale distribution has seen consolidation to the extent that even large states like Illinois have very few wholesale distributors. Moreover, those distributors are politically powerful, and use their profits and their political connections to maintain their market power, to the frustration and economic detriment of both brewers and retail outlets.

Thus one way to interpret this proposed legislation is as the Wisconsin wholesale distributors acting politically to retain their substantial market power by excluding potential competition from vertical integration of large national brewers.

But the controversial and interesting/disturbing interpretation involves small craft brewers such as New Glarus Brewing (which makes some truly outstanding beer, particularly their Stone Soup). Incidentally, New Glarus used to be distributed in Illinois, but as the political and market power of Illinois distributors grew they increased distribution fees sufficiently that New Glarus pulled out of the Illinois market, so now we have to stock up whenever we’re in Wisconsin. New Glarus currently makes 92,000 barrels/year, so they would be exempt under this bill and allowed to do their own wholesale distribution. However, for small brewers this vertical integration is costly, so, as this OpenMarket.org post suggests,

Brewers of less than 300,000 barrels annually will still be able to self-distribute, but current brewers and new wholesalers would be required to have 25 independent retail customers prior to being granted the right to distribute. According to a MillerCoors spokesperson, these new rules would also prevent small brewers from banding together to form their own distributorship. In addition to all of that, the measure would prevent brewers from owning retail licenses, meaning that they could have a brewpub, but they would only be allowed to sell their own product. Breweries that already own retailing outlets would be allowed to retain one.

I think this is the material issue — not only does this legislation insulate wholesale distributors from vertical integration by large national competitors, it also insulates them from contracting among craft brewers to form their own wholesale distributor to compete with the incumbents. The economic theory underlying this argument comes from the Klein, Crawford, Alchian (1978) article on contracting as a substitute for vertical integration, in situations of low transaction and monitoring costs. As New Glarus owner Deb Carey said in this Madison Cap Times article,

“We are losing assets and we are losing control over our products,” Carey says. “This debate boils down to the fact that the wholesalers do not want a drop of beer going to market in Wisconsin without them making their 30 percent profit from it. That’s it.”

That’s the economic argument supporting the craft brewer’s position in this debate; the proposed legislation is anti-competitive, distorts the market, and hampers the business potential of craft brewers in Wisconsin not by preventing them from self-distributing, but by preventing them from contracting to create a craft wholesale distributor to compete against the politically powerful incumbent wholesale distributors.

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Environmental benefits from the Keystone XL pipeline

June 13, 2011

Michael Giberson

The National Wildlife Federation and other environmental groups have been lobbying against the Keystone XL pipeline proposal as a sort of proxy battle against production of crude oil from Canadian tar sands. Robert Hahn and Peter Passell suggest that, as the tar sands will be developed whether or not the pipeline is built, the practical effect of stopping the pipeline project is increased delivery of Canadian oil by railroad instead. Not only does railroad delivery of oil come with its own risk of spills, it is a more costly mode of transportation largely because it takes more energy to move crude oil by rail rather than pipeline. And “takes more energy” means “burns more energy” means more greenhouse gasses and other air emissions during delivery.

Since a pipeline would be the cheapest and best way to deliver Alberta’s oil to market, if the National Wildlife Federation and other groups succeed in imposing some more complicated and costly delivery method then at the margin some production in Alberta will be deterred. The result: U.S. will instead buy the oil that would have come from Alberta from elsewhere, and have it delivered by ocean-crossing tankers. Last I looked oil tankers were not propelled by rainbow juice and unicorn kisses, so those likely alternatives will come with their own set of greenhouse gasses and other emissions.

Assuming the tar sands are developed – and as Hahn and Passell say, “last time we looked, Canada was a functioning democracy capable of making its own decisions” – the pipeline is likely the most environmentally friendly way of delivering the oil to consumers.

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Virginia Postrel on light bulbs

June 10, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

If you have not caught Virginia Postrel in her new columnist gig at Bloomberg View, here’s a good chance, for Virginia’s column today is about U.S. federal light bulb regulation; both Mike and I have written about light bulb technology and the EISA 2007 “performance standard” that is leading to the disappearance of the 100-watt incandescent bulb from the market.

Virginia’s column addresses both the quality/aesthetics issues and the economic flaws of technology mandates, concluding that federal light bulb policy is not an efficient way to reduce electricity use. Instead, in bootlegger-and-baptist fashion:

… the activists offended by the public’s presumed wastefulness took a more direct approach. They joined forces with the big bulb producers, who had an interest in replacing low-margin commodities with high-margin specialty wares, and, with help from Congress and President George W. Bush, banned the bulbs people prefer.

It was an inside job. Neither ordinary consumers nor even organized interior designers had a say. Lawmakers buried the ban in the 300-plus pages of the 2007 energy bill, and very few talked about it in public. It was crony capitalism with a touch of green.

After a thorough discussion of the disappointing quality features of CFLs — poor light quality, lags in starting, shorter-than-advertised life spans (but not enough discussion of the lack of dimmability, which is my primary complaint), Virginia analyzes how this technology mandate fails to allow for consumer autonomy and choice in how to control and manage their own electricity use:

But banning light bulbs is one of the least efficient ways imaginable to attack those problems [air pollution or CO2 emissions]. A lamp using power from a clean source is treated the same as a lamp using power from a dirty source. A ban gives electricity producers no incentive to reduce emissions.

Nor does it allow households to make choices about how best to conserve electricity. A well-designed policy would allow different people to make different tradeoffs among different uses to produce the most happiness (“utility” in econ-speak) for a given amount of power. Maybe I want to burn a lot of incandescent bulbs but dry my clothes outdoors and keep the air conditioner off. Maybe I want to read by warm golden light instead of watching a giant plasma TV.

This. This is a large source of aggravation with regulation more generally, as well as a large source of the unintended consequences that inevitably accompany such regulation. The “government knows best” attitude that drills down too far and does not target the ultimate objective, which is reducing electricity use, both fails to deliver on its goal and is patronizing and condescending in the bargain. That’s a lose-lose policy … for everyone except for those big bulb producers who are the beneficiaries of this legislation.

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Schumpeterian tablet competition

June 9, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

If you want good examples of Schumpeterian competition, it doesn’t get much better than this: Amazon to take on Apple this summer with a Samsung-built tablet? The Engadget folks make

… a very reasoned argument that paints Amazon, not Samsung or the rest of the traditional consumer electronics industry, as Apple’s chief competition in the near-term tablet space. An idea that’ll be tough to argue against if Amazon — with its combined music (downloadable and streaming), video, book, and app ecosystem — can actually launch a dirt-cheap, highly-customized, 7-inch Android tablet this summer as Pete predicts.

This evolution is Schumpeterian in several ways, the most obvious of which is the process of creative destruction that disrupts equilibration by entrepreneurs creating a new product that will make some old products less valuable and ultimately obsolete. Note, interestingly, that one of the products likely to be made obsolete is Amazon’s own Kindle.

But the essential product, the tablet computer, is not actually new, which gets to the second, and in some ways more meaningful, Schumpterian aspects of this evolution: this is a good example of competition for the platform. This is not just about coming up with some new gadget that consumers might like; this is about integration of the various applications and services that might create value for consumers into an elegant platform. Given Apple’s announcement this week of iCloud and Amazon’s existing cloud services, this Amazon tablet is part of that platform competition.

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Saving fisheries with property rights

June 9, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

Researchers at PERC have been working on free-market environmentalism and property rights-based approaches to aligning economic and environmental values for decades. This video does an excellent job of highlighting the work that PERC scholars and others have done to make ocean fisheries more sustainable by moving from open-access overfishing to population and profit longevity using catch shares.

It’s the first in a series of videos PERC will produce to highlight real-world conservation arising from property rights-based policies and practices.

Property rights in ocean fisheries is a frequent topic here, as indicated by our post history, which I encourage you to explore if you want to learn more about this important topic.

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Sure, Congress can regulate light bulbs that travel in interstate commerce, but a “made in Texas, stayed in Texas” bulb…?

June 8, 2011

Michael Giberson

The Texas state legislature has passed a bill that affirms that a light bulb manufactured in Texas of materials predominantly from within Texas and sold for use within Texas would not be subject to federal law or regulation under the authority of the U.S. Congress to regulate interstate commerce. The bill further would commit the state Attorney General to defend any citizen of the state of Texas making a “Made in Texas” bulb who is prosecuted by the federal government for violating the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

The bill has passed both the state House and Senate, but not yet signed by the governor. The Natural Resources Defense Council is advocating against efforts to repeal or amend the EISA of 2007 (for example) and is opposing the Texas bill.

In part the bill reads:

AN ACT
relating to exempting the intrastate manufacture of certain incandescent light bulbs from federal regulation.

(c) In 2007, the United States Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act (Pub. L. No. 110-140). Section 321 of that act bans the sale of certain incandescent light bulbs in the United States beginning in 2012.
(d) The regulation of intrastate commerce is vested in the states under the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to the United States Constitution if not expressly preempted by federal law. The United States Congress has not expressly preempted state regulation of intrastate commerce relating to the manufacture on an intrastate
basis of incandescent light bulbs.
(e) The Legislature of the State of Texas declares that an incandescent light bulb manufactured in Texas, as described by Chapter 2004, Business & Commerce Code, as added by this Act, that remains within the borders of Texas:
(1) has not traveled in interstate commerce; and
(2) is not subject to federal law or federal regulation, under the authority of the United States Congress to regulate interstate commerce.

Full legislative information on HB 2510 available at the Texas Legislature Online website.

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A voluntary association disaster relief update

June 8, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

Think about public policy concerning disaster relief — the typical argument is that government intervention is necessary to supply affected people with food, clothing, shelter, and construction resources. One theoretical foundation of this argument is the standard public good model, which shows that profit maximizing/utility maximizing individuals will not supply the optimal amount of a valuable good because of the inability to exclude consumption by those who don’t pay. The result is free riding of non-payers on payers, which in the limit falls apart because no rational agent would pay for the good if presented with the option of consuming the good without paying for it. Therefore, government provision is required to mitigate the free rider problem.

This public good/free riding model has several flaws that make the model incapable of explaining real-world private action and voluntary association that happens in the wake of a natural disaster. The first and most glaring flaw in the model is the rationality assumption embedded in it, which assumes that a profit-maximizing firm or a utility-maximizing individual will not contribute if presented with the possibility of having disaster relief exist without having to contribute. To paraphrase Deirdre McCloskey, this rationality assumption is focused too intently on the virtue of prudence, and not enough on other human motivations/virtues such as justice and charity.

Relaxing that assumption and allowing for non-utilitarian, non-prudence-myopic models of human motivation and behavior has done a better job of explaining private action and voluntary association in cases of disaster relief, and recently we have seen several more examples of such private action in this spring’s tornadoes. One of the best scholars of such private ordering and voluntary association, historian David Beito, is at the University of Alabama and was thus on the ground for the Tuscaloosa tornadoes in April. As he reports in Reason,

Tuscaloosa also became the scene of an inspiring, highly decentralized outpouring of volunteers and donations. Many of these arrangements could best be described examples of what Nobel prize-winning economist F.A. Hayek called “spontaneous order.” As Hayek put it, spontaneous orders result from the countless actions of individuals, who coordinate their actions through extended systems of voluntary cooperation, rather than the design of a single planner.

David recounts the efforts of University of Alabama students and other Tuscaloosa locals to provide a wide range of assistance to those whose homes were destroyed in the tornadoes. One of the interesting aspects of assistance that he highlights is the role of talk radio in providing information and coordinating the efforts of the benevolent with the needs of the storm’s victims. In some cases this assistance included people who argue against illegal immigration including Spanish language announcements and providing other help to illegal immigrants whose homes had been destroyed. The kind of help he describes is not unique to Tuscaloosa in 2011, which indicates how flawed the public good/free rider model is for understanding the supply of disaster relief.

A second example comes from the tornadoes in Joplin, Missouri in May. As Steve Horwitz points out at Coordination Problem, for-profit firms put extra effort into getting their products to Joplin … not to charge exorbitant prices for them, but to give them away at zero price. Procter & Gamble brought a slew of Duracell batteries and devices and a Tide Loads of Hope mobile laundromat, so that storm victims could at least have clean clothes and some semblance of normalcy while coping with the devastation around them:

Here is commerce meeting virtue:  by giving away their product, they have enabled people to navigate a terrible situation with one less thing to worry about and to at least have the dignity of clean clothes while they rebuild the rest of their lives.

Capitalism makes it possible to engage and deploy the whole range of bourgeois virtues.

In that post Steve also links to some of his work on private action and voluntary association in New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which is outstanding and that I recommend to you highly. For example, the actions that Walmart took to leverage their expertise in supply chain logistics and to allow their employees to accumulate extra vacation time by working there are particularly striking.

Not only does capitalism make it possible to engage and deploy bourgeois virtues — it also makes firms and individuals forward-looking, which enables both reputation mechanisms and reciprocity to join with those virtues to motivate firms and individuals to contribute to disaster relief in ways that the standard neoclassical public good model cannot capture.

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Saying goodbye to Edison’s hot little light bulb?

June 7, 2011

Michael Giberson

Andrew Rice has a great little story in the New York Times Magazine on the upcoming phaseout of the incandescent light bulb. No, the incandescent bulb has not been “banned,” not exactly. It is just that, a few years ago, Congress agreed to raise energy efficiency standards for light bulbs effective January 1, 2012, to a level high enough that incandescent bulbs would not qualify.

The story wraps together a little history, technology, politics, aesthetics, and economics, and adds just a few hints of political philosophy. Nice. A couple of good parts:

Lumileds, a subsidiary of the Dutch conglomerate Royal Philips Electronics, specializes in the manufacture of light-emitting diodes (L.E.D.’s), tiny semiconductor chips similar to the ones you’d find within your computer, except that they turn electricity into photons instead of information….

Philips created its L.E.D. bulb to compete for the L Prize, a government-sponsored award meant to encourage the development of a replacement for the 60-watt incandescent before the new standards begin to go into effect in January. Traditional incandescents are extremely inefficient, giving off 90 percent of their energy as heat, not light, and over the years, the government and the lighting industry tried to move consumers on to products like halogens and compact fluorescents. But no amount of subsidy or “green” branding has managed to woo consumers away from Edison’s bulb. “Not only is it in alignment with the type of light that consumers like,” says David DiLaura, author of “A History of Light and Lighting.” “It’s commoditized and it’s cheap.”

So some years ago, Philips formed a coalition with environmental groups including the Natural Resources Defense Council to push for higher standards. “We felt that we needed to make a call, and show that the best-known lighting technology, the incandescent light bulb, is at the end of its lifetime,” says Harry Verhaar, the company’s head of strategic sustainability initiatives. Philips told its environmental allies it was well positioned to capitalize on the transition to new technologies and wanted to get ahead of an efficiency movement that was gaining momentum abroad and in states like California. Other manufacturers were more wary, but they also understood the downside to selling a ubiquitous commodity: the profit margin on a bulb that sells for a quarter is negligible. After much negotiation, the industry and environmental groups agreed to endorse tightening efficiency by 25 to 30 percent.

And:

The notion of light as a thoughtless commodity would have seemed fanciful to our distant ancestors. Before electricity, light was expensive, a product of exhaustible sources like whale oil. It was Edison who finally took it to the masses in limitless quantities. On Dec. 31, 1879, the inventor invited a crowd of thousands to his laboratory in Menlo Park, N.J., to witness a demonstration of his fantastic innovation, described in a patent as an “electric lamp for giving light by incandescence.”

Technically speaking, whale oil is a renewable resource, right?

Much of the crucial basic research behind the [Philips L Prize] bulb was done by a specialized group of about 40 Lumileds scientists. They continually work to improve the L.E.D. performance by experimenting with the closely guarded “recipe” used to cook up the diodes by combining molecules of indium, gallium and nitrogen. “The material system is not very well understood,” says Ted Mihopoulos, who heads the department. Minuscule changes in temperature inside a reactor can yield significant variations in color and brightness. People sometimes say that L.E.D.’s are like diamonds; no two are exactly alike. When the time came to build an L Prize prototype, Mihopoulos said he culled the 24 brightest diodes from his lab’s private stash.

Doesn’t exactly seem like a technology ready to jump from the lab to the manufacturing line, but there are still over six months to go before the phaseout (unless Congress intervenes on behalf of consumers wanting to stick with incandescents) so I guess consumers should keep their fingers crossed.

In March, [Sen. Jeff] Bingaman convened a Senate committee hearing on the new standards. Two Republicans, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Jim Risch of Idaho, used the occasion to denounce free-market infringement. Paul pressed Kathleen Hogan, a D.O.E. official, to say whether she was pro-choice before going off into a long disquisition on liberty. “I find it really appalling and hypocritical . . . that you favor a woman’s right to an abortion but you don’t favor a woman or a man’s right to choose what kind of light bulb,” Paul said. “I really find it troubling, this busybody nature.”

Okay, I’ll admit that – in the summer at least, when I’m paying to cool my house – I’m troubled by all the heat given off by incandescent bulbs. See Energy Circle for an illustration. But count me among the consumers who have tried compact fluorescents (actually have some in my family room right now) and have been usually disappointed by shorter-than-promised lifespans for poorer quality light and at a much higher cost.

L.E.D.s seem like a great solution, maybe someday, but they still need work to outperform the cheap, hot little bulb devised by Thomas Edison so many years ago.

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Keystone pipeline leaks boost case for new Keystone XL pipeline and other energy stories in the news

June 6, 2011

Michael Giberson

Mostly oil and natural gas stories from around the web:

  1. The Hill’s E2-Wire, Oil industry: Response to leaks boosts case for pipeline – “The Obama administration’s swift response to leaks at the TransCanada pipeline boosts the case for approving an extension of the line, the oil industry argued Monday.” Logic is: sure the pipeline has had a few leaks, but the Department of Transportation quickly and appropriately moved to limit any harms, so current regulations are sufficient to protect people, property and environmental values along the pipeline route.
  2. FuelFix notes additional investments in Texas oil production, Carrizo expands Eagle Ford footprint and Linc Energy buys producing fields in Texas, La. from ERG. EIA data indicates that after many years of stable or slight drops in production, Texas crude oil production is increasing in 2011 (back to levels last seen in 1999, still significantly below production levels of 15, 20, or 40 years ago).
  3. Speaking of EIA, they just published an analysis of LNG re-exports: Re-exports of liquefied natural gas rose rapidly in early winter.
  4. More from The Hill’s E2-WireReport: World could see natural-gas ‘golden age’ – The International Energy Agency sees the combination of hydraulic fracturing and other technological improvements boosting supply, while new nuclear power skepticism boosts demand. Natural gas use could outpace world coal use by 2030, the IEA said.
  5. The Wall Street Journal provides an update on the unraveling of Lubbock’s power plant purchase deals, Texas Power-Plant Deals Unravel in Local Dispute. See previously at KP here and here.
  6. Cuba prepares for oil exploration in the Caribbean. The Houston Chronicle reports, Embargo may block U.S. response to Cuban oil spill. No, there hasn’t been a Cuban oil spill, at least not yet. But if there were to be one, current U.S. law would deter firms doing business in the United States from responding. Cuba may have to wait for spill response ships and supplies to arrive from the North Sea or South America. A spill could reach U.S. shores in as little as three days.
  7. The Texas Railroad Commission intends to finish hydraulic fracturing disclosure regulations by July 1, 2012 even though law gives the agency until 2013 to issue the rules.


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