Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

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The “100 mpg prize” and other energy stories

February 3, 2012

Michael Giberson

Speed blogging a few stories:

“The ’100 mpg prize’: An idea whose time has passed?” by Ken Paulman

Earlier this week, California GOP Rep. Dan Lungren introduced a bill that would offer a $1 billion prize to the first automaker than can put 60,000 cars achieving 100 mpg on the road. Only requirement – the cars have to run on gasoline.

The bill is intended as an alternative to further government investment in electric and hybrid cars. And once you get past the irony that the party that excoriates “picking winners and losers” wants to predetermine what kind of fuel we’ll all be using in the future, it’s hard to argue with an effort to develop more efficient gasoline cars. After all, even by the rosiest of projections, the majority of cars on the road 20 years from now will still run on gas.

So can government bounties for innovation work?

Paulman takes a long at the 18th century history of The Longitude Prize. I wonder if the various X Prizes would be a better, since more recent, analog.

“Revolt Brews as Tepco Seeks Higher Rates” by Phred Dvorak and Mitsuru Obe in the Wall Street Journal. (Sub.)

TOKYO—Tokyo Electric Power Co. and other utilities are starting to see revolt by some of their biggest customers, as rising fuel costs and the shutdown of nuclear reactors push Japan’s already-steep electricity costs even higher.

A handful of companies, such as Tokyo Steel Co. and cosmetics maker Kose Corp., have said they are considering switching electricity providers if Tepco, Japan’s biggest utility, boosts corporate rates around 17% as proposed in January. Other customers have complained privately, Tepco said.

It is possible for large consumers to switch power providers in Japan, but complicated, and the tight supply market is making a switch even harder to arrange. I wonder if the challenges will push Japan toward a more regimented market or a more liberalized power market?

ALSO: Energy secretary backs natural gas exports at least for now, though the logic is a bit convoluted. (“The low price of natural gas is hurting domestic job growth” and “Exporting natural gas means wealth comes into the United States.” Okay, Mr. Secretary, so do you think the high price of oil is good for domestic job growth? Does importing oil mean wealth leaves the United States?

AND: Sierra Club took $26M from gas industry to fight coal-fired plants. So is this like one bootlegger funding a baptist campaign against the other bootleggers? The Sierra Club decided to stop taking the money in 2010 (mostly from Chesapeake Energy’s CEO Aubrey McClendon) after deciding it didn’t want money from fracked natural gas wealth.

FINALLY: Gasland‘s Josh Fox arrested at U.S. House hearing on fracking. Apparently his request to film was declined because his crew didn’t have Capitol media clearance, and he took his crew to the hearing anyway. The linked report says he knew there was a chance he’d be arrested, and it is likely the case that the arrest will be much more valuable to him than actually filming the hearing would have been. (Here is the House Science Committee subsequent statement on media coverage of the hearing; it mentions that the event was webcast and is now archived on the committee’s website. See link on this page. Unfortunately, all the fun happened before the meeting begun.)

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Keystone XL jobs: estimates range from a few thousand to about 1.47 bazillion

January 30, 2012

Michael Giberson

The Columbia Journalism Review takes a look at the jobs numbers that have been cited in news stories about the Keystone XL pipeline and traces them back to their shaky foundations.

It is a detailed and useful reminder of the slim link to reality that these claims have. (I use an easier method: anytime I hear a politician or project promoter talk about jobs, I assume they are lying.)

But more to the point, such job counting exercises ought to have no influence in public policy decisions, so no role in policy discussions. Policies ought to be evaluated on whether the overall expected benefits are reasonably believed to exceed the overall costs, with a moment or two of silence for the peoples whose rights will be trampled by the projects.

If jobs are the goal, we can mandate that every truck used have five drivers and every pipe laid be dug up twice and buried again. I trust that even the newspaper reporters of the world can see how silly that would be. (The politicians? I don’t have much hope, but it doesn’t really matter since I already assume they are lying.)

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Was federal government support critical to the shale gas breakthrough?

January 26, 2012

Michael Giberson

In the State of the Union address, President Obama invoked a little federal government research history and then jumped to the kind of logical non sequitur so common to those who see the world through politically-colored glasses:

The development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper, proving that we don’t have to choose between our environment and our economy. And by the way, it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock – reminding us that Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.

Reminds me of the old saying, “Success has many fathers.” It is true that the federal government supported research into technologies used to extract gas from shale, but it is a politician’s self-serving leap to then suggest it means “Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.”

The President’s comment echoes a claim advanced by the Breakthrough Institute last month (as they were happy to point out after the speech), namely that credit for the shale gas boom ought to go to the federal government. I commented on the Breakthrough Institute’s claim in December (see here and here), and the Master Resource blog has republished the first of those posts this morning.

If the federal government were responsible for the shale gas boom, wouldn’t we have expected to see shale gas resources on federal government land developed before privately-owned resources were explored? Instead what we have is the President, in the same State of the Union speech, announcing disclosure requirements for companies that want to use hydraulic fracturing on federal lands – meaning, given the way policy gets developed, that sometime soon a regulatory proposal on the issue will be initiated and in several months, or maybe a year or two, a rule will be in place.

There is nothing wrong with the checks and balances in the policy making process, even though they cause the federal government to sometimes move at a glacial pace. But anyone with the least familiarity with running a business will know that this isn’t the way breakthroughs get made in the private sector.

I certainly would recommend the interested reader check out the Breakthrough Institute’s work on the issue. In addition to the Washington Post op-ed linked above, on their blog they have a summary of their message, interviews with former Mitchell Energy geologist Dan Steward and Penn State University geologist and fracking expert Terry Englander, and other supporting information. The basic reporting presented is quite good. Just be ready to form your own conclusions.

 

 

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The SOTU energy policy extract

January 25, 2012

Michael Giberson

For your convenience, the energy policy parts from last night’s State of the Union address. Be aware that I’ve dropped some non-energy words, phrases or even short sentences without indicating where such edits happened in order to make this extract relatively clean. In some cases I kept non-energy bits that seemed useful as context for the energy discussion.

Think about the America within our reach: A future where we’re in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren’t so tied to unstable parts of the world.

I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last – an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.

Innovation demands basic research. Don’t let other countries win the race for the future. Support the same kind of research and innovation that led to the computer chip and the Internet; to new American jobs and new American industries.

Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American-made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. Right now, American oil production is the highest that it’s been in eight years. That’s right – eight years. Not only that – last year, we relied less on foreign oil than in any of the past sixteen years.

But with only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves, oil isn’t enough. This country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy – a strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs.

We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy. Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. And I’m requiring all companies that drill for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use. America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk.

The development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper, proving that we don’t have to choose between our environment and our economy. And by the way, it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock – reminding us that Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.

What’s true for natural gas is true for clean energy. In three years, our partnership with the private sector has already positioned America to be the world’s leading manufacturer of high-tech batteries. Because of federal investments, renewable energy use has nearly doubled. And thousands of Americans have jobs because of it.

When Bryan Ritterby was laid off from his job making furniture, he said he worried that at 55, no one would give him a second chance. But he found work at Energetx, a wind turbine manufacturer in Michigan. Before the recession, the factory only made luxury yachts.

Our experience with shale gas shows us that the payoffs on these public investments don’t always come right away. Some technologies don’t pan out; some companies fail. But I will not walk away from the promise of clean energy. I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here. We have subsidized oil companies for a century. That’s long enough. It’s time to end the taxpayer giveaways to an industry that’s rarely been more profitable, and double-down on a clean energy industry that’s never been more promising. Pass clean energy tax credits and create these jobs.

We can also spur energy innovation with new incentives. The differences in this chamber may be too deep right now to pass a comprehensive plan to fight climate change. But there’s no reason why Congress shouldn’t at least set a clean energy standard that creates a market for innovation. So far, you haven’t acted. Well tonight, I will. I’m directing my Administration to allow the development of clean energy on enough public land to power three million homes. And I’m proud to announce that the Department of Defense, the world’s largest consumer of energy, will make one of the largest commitments to clean energy in history – with the Navy purchasing enough capacity to power a quarter of a million homes a year.

Of course, the easiest way to save money is to waste less energy. So here’s another proposal: Help manufacturers eliminate energy waste in their factories and give businesses incentives to upgrade their buildings. Their energy bills will be $100 billion lower over the next decade, and America will have less pollution, more manufacturing, and more jobs for construction workers who need them. Send me a bill that creates these jobs.

Building this new energy future should be just one part of a broader agenda to repair America’s infrastructure. So much of America needs to be rebuilt. We’ve got a power grid that wastes too much energy.

I recognize that people watching tonight have differing views about energy. But no matter what party they belong to, I bet most Americans are thinking the same thing right now: Nothing will get done this year, or next year, or maybe even the year after that, because Washington is broken.

I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.

On the other hand, even my Republican friends who complain the most about Government spending have supported clean energy projects for the folks back home.

The last four paragraphs fell outside the main energy portion of the speech, but since energy was mentioned I’ve included them here.

The full speech clocked in just under 7000 words, while this extract is a bit over 900 words. The word energy appeared 23 times in the speech.

The Hill‘s E2 Wire blogged the energy content of the speech. See:

For another view, here is a report from CNN.

Can anyone name a major energy policy initiative that emerged from any prior State of the Union address? That is to say, any reason to expect any of this to matter beyond a week from now?

My natural inclination is to say these things don’t matter, but the 2006 State of the Union address lauded the promise of cellulosic ethanol and the following year the Renewable Fuels Standard was implemented.

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First SOTU energy policy cliché?

January 24, 2012

Michael Giberson

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is taking bets on which cliché President Obama will utter first in tonight’s State of the Union Address. The favorite is “We have more work to do,” at 8-to-1, but I like “Don’t get me wrong” at 20-to-1. (HT to MR.)

Given that energy issues are reported to be a main theme of the speech, I wondered which energy-related cliché would come up first. Here are some possibilities:

  1. homegrown energy sources
  2. America’s energy future
  3. clean energy economy
  4. rising prices at the pump
  5. dangers of our oil dependence
  6. secure our energy future
  7. clean-burning natural gas
  8. fuel-efficient cars and trucks of tomorrow
  9. [any reference to Secretary of Energy Steven Chu's Nobel Prize]
  10. …?

What else?

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Presidents, policies, prices and production

January 23, 2012

Michael Giberson

Robert Rapier posts this chart:

U.S. Oil Production under Bush and Obama [Chart]

Via Robert Rapier and R-Squared Energy Blog

Rapier noted that last week Obama observed the energy production trends:

“Under my administration, domestic oil and natural gas production is up, while imports of foreign oil are down,” Obama added in his statement. “In the months ahead, we will continue to look for new ways to partner with the oil and gas industry to increase our energy security … even as we set higher efficiency standards for cars and trucks and invest in alternatives like biofuels and natural gas.”

Notice that Obama doesn’t directly claim credit – he just observes the correlation without asserting causation. (I imagine the phrase “we will continue to look for new ways to partner with the oil and gas industry” generated a few eye rolls among energy producers.)

It takes four to six years, Rapier says, for policies or higher oil prices to bear fruit. So Carter saw a boost in domestic oil production largely due to the Nixon’s push for an Alaskan oil pipeline and the sustained oil price increases that began in 1973. Similarly, he said, current increases in production are largely due to higher prices over the last several years which led companies to green light projects that were sub-marginal at lower prices. (I’d only add to the story a brief nod to technological improvements that are bringing down the cost of drilling and enhancing recovery.)

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WSJ says EIA says natural gas prices could jump 54 percent with exports

January 20, 2012

Michael Giberson

Yesterday the Energy Information Administration released the results of its analysis of possible price effects from increased natural gas exports, and the Wall Street Journal finds the drama (“Gas Prices Could Rise With Exports”):

Increased exports of U.S. natural gas could drive up domestic gas prices as much as 54% in 2018, federal officials said Thursday, in a projection that could complicate efforts by more than a half-dozen companies hoping to spend billions of dollars on new export terminals.

Sounds like a disaster for U.S. natural gas consumers, and that is the impression that some U.S. manufacturing companies would like you to form about possible natural gas exports.

If you read through the article, you pick up the slimmest bits of context: the 54 percent number is from just one of several scenarios studied, that scenario one assuming the lowest level of increased gas production and the fastest imaginable increase in exports; and current gas prices are below $3 per million BTU, the lowest in a decade. Also, the 54 percent is the peak price effect in the scenario, for 2018, but prices retreat after 2018 as the higher price sparks additional production.

I’d count the WSJ article as overly dramatic and misleading. (I haven’t had time to examine the EIA report in detail. It is available online, along with lots of data and context: “Effect of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets.”)

EIA expects prices to recover over the next few years, even without exports, to just under $5 by 2018 in mid-line cases and to $6 for low gas production scenarios. Worst case prices (from consumers’ viewpoint) could average around $9 in 2018, then prices fall back toward $6. More likely scenarios have much more moderate price effects.

The EIA makes another interesting point in the report introduction. For all practical purposes, the export licensing requirement is only a big issue for trade with countries for which we are not in a free trade agreement. Under our free trade agreements, any proposed export is already deemed to be in the public interest and so satisfies the export licensing review standard.

So, let’s imagine the most successful anti-natural gas export political scenario: LNG export licenses get denied, Canada stops exporting gas to the U.S. because of low U.S. prices (already happening) and then starts importing gas from the U.S. Canadian companies build LNG export facilities on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, buy low cost U.S. gas and exports high priced LNG to Asian and European markets. We already are net natural gas exporters to Mexico, and Mexican companies could provide the same kind of import/export service.

Else domestic industrial natural gas consumers – the primary interest group raising objections to potential LNG exports – will have to take on amendments to our current free trade agreements. I’d judge that unlikely, at least for now.

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SOPA/PIPA protests and the economics of content market power

January 19, 2012

Lynne Kiesling

I found some things striking in yesterday’s SOPA/PIPA protests. One was Jim Harper’s clear and cogent statement that the Internet is not a thing, it’s a set of protocols stipulating how computers communicate with each other. That set of protocols is a platform, and those protocols are not the government’s to regulate.

Jim’s Cato colleague, the ever-reliable Julian Sanchez, points out that if you estimate the profits/surplus at stake from piracy relative to the lost value all of the other Internet activities that would be stifled under SOPA/PIPA, the cost of piracy is just not that large. Sure, it’s concentrated in the hands of politically-powerful entertainment content companies, but relative to the rest of the vibrant, dynamic value creation that would “be disappeared” it’s small. Moreover, domestic and international legal institutions already exist to deal with piracy; like any other human institution they are imperfect, but as a consequence of them the losses from piracy are small relative to what would be lost if Congress imposed SOPA/PIPA. Here’s a good, short video from Julian covering some of the basics:

At Digitopoly, Joshua Gans makes an analogy near and dear to my heart: consider how SOPA/PIPA would make the Internet more like the arbitrary, intrusive, Constitution-free zone that is our airports:

But the notion that enforcement and prevention matters will be put in place that create massive harm to the lives of innocent individuals while being unlikely to really actually led to less of the activity targeted is not unprecedented. You can think about this every time you go through a US airport and think about who is winning there. …

So the scenario that US people should be concerned about is if publishing on the Internet becomes like airport security. That is, if copyright enforcers are able to automate enforcement without due process. That will raise the costs of publishing and will deter many. As is often the case with over-reaching laws, the problem is that it creates too few incentives for enforcers to enforce discriminately rather than indiscriminately.

These contributions to the discussion have all been outstanding, but the most useful one in my estimation is this TED video posted yesterday from Clay Shirky on the issues at stake in the SOPA/PIPA debate:

It really is a must-watch video, well worth 10 minutes of your time. Shirky describes the technological issues clearly for non-techies and delves helpfully into the legal history of copyright in media, but then makes the crucial economic point when he says “Time Warner wants us all back on the couch and not creating our own content”. In all of the justifiable furor about censorship, this is the economic point that gets a bit lost. For the past 70 years the entertainment companies have had a lot of market power, because entertainment was essentially an oligopoly. They profited handsomely from their market power over content. But with the decentralization and edge content generation now possible due to technology, and with the way that their content provides an input into that edge creation, we now have many more substitutes for their content. They are using the piracy red herring (which is not as large as they claim it is, as Julian points out above) to try to retain the viability of their decades-old business model and market power over content. That’s the real economic issue here — they want us back on the couch and in the movie theater.

This is a fight that is not new with SOPA/PIPA and the Internet, nor will it end with the Congressional retreat from these ill-designed pieces of proposed legislation. Yesterday raised a lot of awareness of the issues, but it’s going to have to happen over and over and over …

I’m going to give the last word to my friend Sarah, who makes a useful analysis of language and its use in the context of both SOPA/PIPA and the recently signed into law National Defense Authorization Act, complete with its provisions that allow extralegal detention of American citizens without due process on suspicion of terrorist activity. Sarah offers an analysis of Orwellian Newspeak language, and identifies disturbing parallels with our current environment:

It struck me today that the combination of SOPA/PIPA and the NDAA move us terrifyingly close to an Orwellian world where people, language, history, and information can disappear at any time. Forever. As if they never were. And worse than that, our primary way to discuss/protest/remedy that disappearance–the Web–will be taken from us as well. …

Newspeak as a language, then, mirrors the political system that creates it, and serves to support it and perpetuate it by creating an agreed upon reality where meanings are strictly limited, the possibility for unorthodox thought is all but eliminated, and an agreed upon “reality” allows Ingsoc to have been always in control. Winston’s friend Syme is correct that “Newspeak is Ingsoc and Ingsoc is Newspeak.”

I leave further connections to the contemporary political situation as an exercise for the reader.

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Michael Graetz’s “The End of Energy” surveys 40 years of energy policy making. It isn’t pretty.

January 16, 2012

Michael Giberson

Michael J. Graetz, "The End of Energy." (Book cover)

Michael J. Graetz, "The End of Energy," MIT Press, 2011.

Michael Graetz’s The End of Energy is a fascinating run through 40 years of U.S. energy policy making. Engaging and at times even entertaining if you are at all interested in energy issues. In Graetz’s telling it is mostly a story of 40 years of failure, though he notes a few successes along the way.

I absolutely loved that the first chapter began with President Nixon’s decision to impose wage and price controls on August 15, 1971. If you think that wasn’t energy-policy relevant, then read that chapter (the publisher will let you read it free). Just note that the Arab oil embargo just over two years later caused barely a hiccup in U.S. oil imports; the gas lines and shortages were mostly due to the remaining Nixon oil price regulations. (Yet, 40 years later we still blame OPEC!)

Graetz proceeds to pull us through the swamp of 1970′s energy policy. President Ford joined Congress in giving us automobile fuel economy regulations. President Carter pushed an astounding range of proposals, succeeded on some but failed on others,  and lectured Americans for their supposed consumerist excesses. The book does a good job of surveying the problems created by interstate natural gas price regulation and the difficult politics of casting off that burden.

Reagan’s presidency doesn’t get much attention. Oil and gas price decontrol seemed to work, but these policies were initiated by Carter. After Reagan comes a decade and a half of relatively low energy prices, but for the spike around the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Not much to report, Graetz suggests, as the urge for new energy policy rises and falls with energy prices.

Energy prices pick up again in the mid-2000s, and after a few words on the Energy Policy Act of 1992 we find ourselves in the middle of climate change discussions and the massive difficulties that come with finding reasonable policy. Graetz devotes a late chapter to Congress and the attempted making of a cap-and-trade law. It is enough, perhaps, to turn the most die hard advocate of cap-and-trade into a carbon tax proponent (excepting that, had Waxman-Markey pushed a carbon tax, then a look into the sausage factory likely would have produced the opposite impulse). The book winds down contemplating the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the Obama administration’s efforts in response.

The book mostly covers domestic federal coal, oil and gas, environmental and some nuclear power issues. Relatively little attention goes to electric power beyond nuclear or to  international issues, except when discussing climate change politics. Not much on ethanol and just a little on solar and wind power. Still – coal, oil and gas, the environment – these are where the big money is and so that is where the politics have focused. One lesson of the book seems to be that lobbying expenditure is a product of policymaker ambition and the size of government, and not the other way around.

The hazard of writing a current events-type book is that the book must end even as events continue. So Graetz laments that 40 years of energy policy making hasn’t put a dent in our “energy dependence,” and practically at the same time we have begun importing less oil for the first time in decades. Domestic oil and gas production is up in recent years, and what is more, it is a development that has come about mostly without the attention of federal energy policy makers. (Or perhaps in part due to their lack of attention, even admitting some federal R&D support for oil and gas drilling technology.)

Well, we can’t blame Graetz because history continued after his book ended. It is a strength of his book that is gives us some idea of what to expect of the next few years, as the politicians and regulators in Washington DC begin to take notice of this domestic energy development. I wouldn’t score all of the wins and losses quite the way he does, and I’m not sure where his interest in more grand energy policy comes from given the fairly damning assessment of the federal energy policy system. Still, the book offers its readers a fair view of and deeper insight into the last 40 years of federal energy policy.

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EPA fines companies for not doing the impossible

January 11, 2012

Michael Giberson

If you read Jonathan Adler’s post at the Volokh Conspiracy (and reposted at PERC’s Percolator blog), it makes the EPA seem a little silly for insisting on fining companies when it would be impossible for companies to comply with the law.

But don’t blame the EPA, which is just implementing a law that Congress passed and President G. W. Bush signed, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Here is Bush at the signing ceremony:

The bill I sign today takes a significant step because it will require fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in 2022. This is nearly a fivefold increase over current levels. It will help us diversify our energy supplies and reduce our dependence on oil. It’s an important part of this legislation, and I thank the members of Congress for your wisdom. (Applause.)

Blame the younger Bush president, blame the members of Congress for their wisdom – or more precisely, for their failed insights in trying to drive the path of technological progress at consumer and taxpayer expense AND, a special note for anyone involving themselves in electioneering this year, failing to sweep this destructive nonsense out of the law any time in the last four years – but the EPA is only the messenger of this madness.

More from the former President:

The legislation I’m about to sign should say to the American people that we can find common ground on critical issues. And there’s more we can accomplish together. New technologies will bring about a new era of energy. So I appreciate the fact that Congress, in the omnibus spending bill that I’m going to sign later on, recognizes that new technologies will help usher in a better quality of life for our citizens. And so we’re going to spend money on new research for alternative feedstocks for ethanol. I mean, we understand the hog growers are getting nervous because the price of corn is up. But we also believe strongly that research will enable us to use wood chips and switchgrass and biomass to be able to develop the ethanol necessary to help us realize the vision outlined in this bill.

With these steps, particularly in the bill I’m about to sign, we’re going to help American consumers a lot. We’ll help them by diversifying our supplies, which will help lower energy prices. We’ll strengthen our security by helping to break our dependence on foreign oil. We’ll do our duty to future generations by addressing climate change.

And so I thank the members of Congress. I appreciate the fact that we’ve worked together, that we can show what’s possible in addressing the big issues facing our nation. This is a good bill and I’m pleased to sign it.

(The bill was signed.) (Applause.)

Ah, yes, “we also believe strongly that research will enable us to use wood chips and switchgrass and biomass to be able to develop the ethanol necessary to help us realize the vision outlined.” Turns out that the “vision” was a bit off.

By the way, yes it was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 that gave us the standards blocking the sale of 100 MW 100 W incandescent light bulbs, beginning in 2012. Also, coincidentally, the EISA bill was signed in December 2007 and later the business cycle folks at the National Bureau of Economic Research identified December 2007 at the end of a 73-month long economic expansion and the beginning of the recession.

SEE ALSO: Kenneth Green’s post at AEI’s Enterprise BlogFill ‘er up with rainbows and unicorn sweat!, and the Matthew Wald New York Times article cited by both Green and Adler.

[EDIT: As a commenter hints, the reference to 100 MW light bulbs was in error. -MG]

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