Posts Tagged ‘energy policy’

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My congressman invites me to Submit & Join*

February 27, 2012

Michael Giberson

In the inbox this afternoon, an emailed letter from my Congressman, Randy Neugebauer, who queries me (and I guess thousands of my neighbors as well) in this manner:

Neugebauer, "Dear Friend" letter, February 27, 2011.

Notice the congressman’s question, “do you believe we should be maximizing the development of our domestic oil and gas resources?” and the button labeled “Submit & Join*”

The  *, which is in the original, links to this explanation: “*By submitting your answer, you are subscribing to the weekly e-newsletter I send out every Monday.

There was no opportunity to “Submit but not Join,” apparently meaning if I don’t want to subscribe to the weekly newsletters then he isn’t interested in my opinion. (Do I want to be spammed about Congressional pork? No, not really.)

But my real problem with this opportunity to communicate with my member of Congress on energy is that I’m not sure I understand the question: “Do you believe we should be maximizing the development of our domestic oil and gas resources?”

  1. Does “maximizing the development” mean producing as much oil and gas as possible? If so, then I’d vote “No.” I’d rather maximize the value of resources than maximize  development. Many fields are unprofitable to develop, because mostly depleted or just not very promising. Let’s not maximize the development of these fields – that’d be wasteful.
  2. Also, though I’m not the sort of person that get’s too worked up by, for example, the fragmenting habitat of the dunes sagebrush lizard, there are other things of value beyond development of oil and gas resources. “Maximizing the development of our domestic oil and gas resources” without consideration of the trade-offs involved would be wrong.
  3. More generally, I wonder just what he means by “our domestic oil and gas resources”? Since Mr. Neugebauer and I are not joint owners in any oil and gas resources (foreign or domestic), who’s resources are “we” talking about? The best answer may be those oil and gas resources that are under federal government ownership, and here again I’d favor maximizing the overall value of the resources, not maximizing the development of them per se.
  4. If, on the other hand, by “our domestic oil and gas resources,” he means to encompass privately owned oil and gas resources in addition to federally-owned property, then I’d say it is nothing I should be voting on. Private resource owners should free to maximize their value, or maximize their development, or turn their properties into duck ponds if that is what suits them (assuming they hold surface rights as well). We have no more business voting on what a private resource owner does with his property than we have voting on which church, if any, the congressman attends.

I’m pretty generally in favor of oil and gas resource (and related) development: ANWR? Open it up! Keystone XL? Permit it! Fracking? Yes, please! I’m pretty sure I’m supposed to say “Yes” to the Congressman’s question, but each time I try to read it carefully I end up saying “No.”

ASIDE: By the way, you might think it not necessary to specify that privately owned oil and gas resources are not some sort of common property of the state, but on the other hand: Bill O’Reilly and Lou Dobbs. (Not recommended viewing, by the way, because economic illiteracy is no laughing matter.)

 

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Green energy paradox: Hotelling’s exhaustible resource and consequences of improving the alternatives

February 24, 2012

Michael Giberson

The “green power paradox” grabs Hotelling by the ankles, turns him upside down, and shakes the change out of his pockets.

Harold Hotelling’s classic article, “The Economics of Exhaustible Resources,” observes that the owner of an exhaustible resource stock always is making choices in the shadow of the future. If the owner produces and sells a bit today, that necessarily involves sacrificing the opportunity to produce and sell that bit in the future. Given that the resource is exhaustible, we expect the price to increase as the stock of resources nears exhaustion. The resource owner’s choice, then, is whether to sell at a low price today or a higher price tomorrow.

Hotelling’s mathematics says the resource price will tend to increase at the rate of interest, at least under certain conditions (The intuition: if the rate of price increase is below the rate of interest then it will pay to produce more quickly now; if the  price increases are any faster then it will pay to produce more slowly. The adjustments will tend to keep the rate of resource price increases in line with interest rates.)

The green paradox emerges when, in a world of exhaustible energy resources, a new renewable energy supply is introduced. Suddenly, the heavy hand of the future is lifted a little. Therefore, even as the exhaustible energy resource dwindles, no longer can the owner expect ever rising prices. In fact, as the technology of the renewable energy resource improves, the price of all energy resources should drop.

In a world of constantly improving renewable energy technology, the owner of an exhaustible resource may be choosing between a low price today and an even lower price tomorrow. The implication: produce and sell now, before the price drops again!

Paradoxically, government promotion of alternative energy technology as a means to fight global warming may be encouraging the rapid exploitation of fossil fuels!

(This is my optimistic, Julian Simon-esque version of the Green Paradox, with resources becoming cheaper over time. A similar pessimistic version can obtain if owners of an exhaustible energy resource expect that regulatory controls on production will become increasingly onerous over time. Produce now while the controls are light instead of keeping your resource in the ground where future regulations may insist it stay.

And finally, if you are a combination resource optimist and a regulatory pessimist, then you ought to stop reading this post right now and go drill, baby, drill!)

SEE: Hans-Werner Sinn, The Green Paradox, MIT Press (2012). Related Sinn: “Greenhouse gases: Demand control policies, supply and the time path of carbon prices.

HT: Marginal Revolution.

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Was federal government support critical to the shale gas breakthrough?

January 26, 2012

Michael Giberson

In the State of the Union address, President Obama invoked a little federal government research history and then jumped to the kind of logical non sequitur so common to those who see the world through politically-colored glasses:

The development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper, proving that we don’t have to choose between our environment and our economy. And by the way, it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock – reminding us that Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.

Reminds me of the old saying, “Success has many fathers.” It is true that the federal government supported research into technologies used to extract gas from shale, but it is a politician’s self-serving leap to then suggest it means “Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.”

The President’s comment echoes a claim advanced by the Breakthrough Institute last month (as they were happy to point out after the speech), namely that credit for the shale gas boom ought to go to the federal government. I commented on the Breakthrough Institute’s claim in December (see here and here), and the Master Resource blog has republished the first of those posts this morning.

If the federal government were responsible for the shale gas boom, wouldn’t we have expected to see shale gas resources on federal government land developed before privately-owned resources were explored? Instead what we have is the President, in the same State of the Union speech, announcing disclosure requirements for companies that want to use hydraulic fracturing on federal lands – meaning, given the way policy gets developed, that sometime soon a regulatory proposal on the issue will be initiated and in several months, or maybe a year or two, a rule will be in place.

There is nothing wrong with the checks and balances in the policy making process, even though they cause the federal government to sometimes move at a glacial pace. But anyone with the least familiarity with running a business will know that this isn’t the way breakthroughs get made in the private sector.

I certainly would recommend the interested reader check out the Breakthrough Institute’s work on the issue. In addition to the Washington Post op-ed linked above, on their blog they have a summary of their message, interviews with former Mitchell Energy geologist Dan Steward and Penn State University geologist and fracking expert Terry Englander, and other supporting information. The basic reporting presented is quite good. Just be ready to form your own conclusions.

 

 

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The SOTU energy policy extract

January 25, 2012

Michael Giberson

For your convenience, the energy policy parts from last night’s State of the Union address. Be aware that I’ve dropped some non-energy words, phrases or even short sentences without indicating where such edits happened in order to make this extract relatively clean. In some cases I kept non-energy bits that seemed useful as context for the energy discussion.

Think about the America within our reach: A future where we’re in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren’t so tied to unstable parts of the world.

I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last – an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.

Innovation demands basic research. Don’t let other countries win the race for the future. Support the same kind of research and innovation that led to the computer chip and the Internet; to new American jobs and new American industries.

Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American-made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. Right now, American oil production is the highest that it’s been in eight years. That’s right – eight years. Not only that – last year, we relied less on foreign oil than in any of the past sixteen years.

But with only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves, oil isn’t enough. This country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy – a strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs.

We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy. Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. And I’m requiring all companies that drill for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use. America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk.

The development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper, proving that we don’t have to choose between our environment and our economy. And by the way, it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock – reminding us that Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.

What’s true for natural gas is true for clean energy. In three years, our partnership with the private sector has already positioned America to be the world’s leading manufacturer of high-tech batteries. Because of federal investments, renewable energy use has nearly doubled. And thousands of Americans have jobs because of it.

When Bryan Ritterby was laid off from his job making furniture, he said he worried that at 55, no one would give him a second chance. But he found work at Energetx, a wind turbine manufacturer in Michigan. Before the recession, the factory only made luxury yachts.

Our experience with shale gas shows us that the payoffs on these public investments don’t always come right away. Some technologies don’t pan out; some companies fail. But I will not walk away from the promise of clean energy. I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here. We have subsidized oil companies for a century. That’s long enough. It’s time to end the taxpayer giveaways to an industry that’s rarely been more profitable, and double-down on a clean energy industry that’s never been more promising. Pass clean energy tax credits and create these jobs.

We can also spur energy innovation with new incentives. The differences in this chamber may be too deep right now to pass a comprehensive plan to fight climate change. But there’s no reason why Congress shouldn’t at least set a clean energy standard that creates a market for innovation. So far, you haven’t acted. Well tonight, I will. I’m directing my Administration to allow the development of clean energy on enough public land to power three million homes. And I’m proud to announce that the Department of Defense, the world’s largest consumer of energy, will make one of the largest commitments to clean energy in history – with the Navy purchasing enough capacity to power a quarter of a million homes a year.

Of course, the easiest way to save money is to waste less energy. So here’s another proposal: Help manufacturers eliminate energy waste in their factories and give businesses incentives to upgrade their buildings. Their energy bills will be $100 billion lower over the next decade, and America will have less pollution, more manufacturing, and more jobs for construction workers who need them. Send me a bill that creates these jobs.

Building this new energy future should be just one part of a broader agenda to repair America’s infrastructure. So much of America needs to be rebuilt. We’ve got a power grid that wastes too much energy.

I recognize that people watching tonight have differing views about energy. But no matter what party they belong to, I bet most Americans are thinking the same thing right now: Nothing will get done this year, or next year, or maybe even the year after that, because Washington is broken.

I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.

On the other hand, even my Republican friends who complain the most about Government spending have supported clean energy projects for the folks back home.

The last four paragraphs fell outside the main energy portion of the speech, but since energy was mentioned I’ve included them here.

The full speech clocked in just under 7000 words, while this extract is a bit over 900 words. The word energy appeared 23 times in the speech.

The Hill‘s E2 Wire blogged the energy content of the speech. See:

For another view, here is a report from CNN.

Can anyone name a major energy policy initiative that emerged from any prior State of the Union address? That is to say, any reason to expect any of this to matter beyond a week from now?

My natural inclination is to say these things don’t matter, but the 2006 State of the Union address lauded the promise of cellulosic ethanol and the following year the Renewable Fuels Standard was implemented.

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First SOTU energy policy cliché?

January 24, 2012

Michael Giberson

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is taking bets on which cliché President Obama will utter first in tonight’s State of the Union Address. The favorite is “We have more work to do,” at 8-to-1, but I like “Don’t get me wrong” at 20-to-1. (HT to MR.)

Given that energy issues are reported to be a main theme of the speech, I wondered which energy-related cliché would come up first. Here are some possibilities:

  1. homegrown energy sources
  2. America’s energy future
  3. clean energy economy
  4. rising prices at the pump
  5. dangers of our oil dependence
  6. secure our energy future
  7. clean-burning natural gas
  8. fuel-efficient cars and trucks of tomorrow
  9. [any reference to Secretary of Energy Steven Chu's Nobel Prize]
  10. …?

What else?

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EIA releases Annual Energy Outlook 2011

April 27, 2011

Lynne Kiesling

Today the Energy Information Administration released the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (link is to executive summary). This year’s outlook explores scenarios that include updated forecasts of shale gas production, which have changed considerably since last year’s outlook, as KP readers know due to Mike’s excellent analyses.

Another aspect of the analysis that will be of interest to KP readers is their modeling of expected production of renewable energy:

Electricity generation from renewable sources grows by 72 percent in the Reference case, raising its share of total generation from 11 percent in 2009 to 14 percent in 2035. Most of the growth in renewable electricity generation in the power sector consists of generation from wind and biomass facilities (Figure 3). The growth in generation from wind plants is driven primarily by State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements and Federal tax credits. Generation from biomass comes from both dedicated biomass plants and co-firing in coal plants. Its growth is driven by State RPS programs, the availability of low-cost feedstocks, and the Federal renewable fuels standard, which results in significant cogeneration of electricity at plants producing biofuels.

As usual, though, I wouldn’t take those forecasts to the bank, or to your venture capitalist for financing; quite a bit of clean tech investment that is subsidy-dependent has not been getting funding, even with the subsidies and the RPS carrots/sticks … and then there’s the implosion of the Spanish renewables venture capital market with the reduction in subsidies.

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Same old advice gets new package

August 2, 2009

Michael Giberson

My essay of advice to free-market windpower critics, originally published at Master Resource, has been re-published at AltEnergyStocks.

(But the really interesting new stuff at AltEnergyStocks is the immediately prior post on how lead-carbon battery developments will challenge lithium-ion designs for uses in which lithium-ion’s low weight is not a critical factor.  So do go re-read my essay, so the hits are high and Tom Konrad will consider publishing me again someday, but then click back a post and read John Petersen on battery technology.)

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Solar power: Policies should encourage thoughtful development

May 28, 2009

Michael Giberson

Tom Konrad, writing at Alternative Energy Stocks, notes that “current incentives for Solar photovoltaics are good for encouraging more solar, but they are less effective at encouraging better solar.” (Emphasis added.)

His quick review of policy options touches on renewable energy credits, feed-in tariffs, net metering, time-of-use rates, carbon pricing and other tools. Some policies subsidize construction of solar power capacity without much regard for the resulting solar power production. Other policies encourage maximizing the MWh output rather than the value of the power produced. If you want to be an informed analyst of solar power policy, you will want to know which policies do what.

(Konrad’s post is based on his presentation at Solar 2009: “Solar Incentives: Be Careful What You Wish For.”)

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Wind power and bird deaths and Frederic Bastiat

April 22, 2009

Michael Giberson

Wind power gets a lot of criticism for contributing to bird deaths. Reports of bird-turbine collisions lead some environmentalists to withhold support from wind power. You sometimes see free market advocates, who otherwise seem not to get much concerned over the effects of economic activity on wildlife, suddenly quite concerned about wind power’s avian mortality problem. (I haven’t linked to particular stories, but they are widely available. Start here, read all you like.)

It seems a bit like Bastiat’s point about the seen and unseen effects of a policy. It is easy to see the link between wind power and dead birds at the foot of a wind turbine tower, and hard to see the link between fossil fueled generation and dead birds in places far from the coal mines and smokestacks. (If you prefer your literary references to be to current science rather than 18th-century French pamphleteers, imagine that I invoked cognitive biases instead of Bastiat.)

But, if recent analysis of the relationships between electric power generation and bird deaths holds up to further scrutiny, wind power should be celebrated as promoting bird life.  The linked study, just published in the June 2009 issue of Energy Policy, concluded that wind power and nuclear power cause about 0.3 to 0.4 bird deaths per GWh of power generated while fossil fuel-based generation leads to more than 5 bird fatalities per GWh. On average, then, each GWh of wind power displacing fossil fuel power eliminates 4.6 bird fatalities.

To be sure, this conclusion should come with a host of footnotes. First, as author Benjamin Sovacool clearly states in the article, his results should be seen as a preliminary assessment. Limited data was available, and several simplifying assumptions were necessary to arrive at his conclusions. Second, bird mortality effects vary dramatically by site for wind power, so assessment of averages obscures localized differences. Third, assessments of averages also obscures the more-relevant-for-action assessment of marginal effects. Overall, there is much still to be learned about the evironmental impacts of wind turbines. Sovacool’s paper seems a good contribution toward this learning.

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Draft Report to Congress on Wholesale and Retail Competition in Electricity

June 6, 2006

Lynne Kiesling

Yesterday the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released the draft Report to Congress on Competition in the Wholesale and Retail Markets for Electric Energy on behalf of the Electric Energy Market Competition Task Force. This report, required by Section 1815 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, provides an overview and summarizes the progress toward wholesale and retail competition over the past 25 years, the current state of wholesale and retail competition in the U.S., and the economic and political issues surrounding the transition to wholesale and retail competition.

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