Posts Tagged ‘gasoline refining’

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Refiners are getting squeezed by high crude oil prices and faltering U.S. demand, so let’s increase their costs!

March 29, 2012

Michael Giberson

The Houston Chronicle reports on the difficult financial position of many U.S. refineries. Crude oil prices are up for refineries relying on international markets, but U.S. consumers are moderating their gasoline consumption at higher prices and so refiners find their margins to be getting squeezed.

A good article, but right at the end we get this oddball proposal:

Still, refineries could do more to curb skyrocketing gasoline prices, said Amy Myers Jaffe, fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. A government mandate for refineries to maintain a certain level of gasoline in storage would help to curb market fears of a shortage, fears that fuel rapid price spikes, she said.

“We should be requiring inventories of gasoline,” Jaffe said, to reassure the market that supplies won’t run short.

Seems to me a non sequitur wrapped in a riddle: refineries should be doing more to curb skyrocketing gasoline costs? Why refineries? Every indication is that gasoline prices are being driven by world oil crude oil prices (expect for the bottlenecked supplies of the northern Rocky Mountain states). There is no indication that “the market” is fearing a shortage of gasoline, is there? By the way, gasoline inventories are pretty high for this time of year AND consumption has been trending down, so who thinks consumer fears of a gasoline shortage are a problem?

And, I guess this is my real question, what makes Jaffe think that the solution to the refineries’ current woes is to impose regulations that would significantly add to their costs? Exactly how is this going to “do more to curb skyrocketing gasoline prices”?

Jaffe is usually smarter than this, so I’m a bit confused by the idea.

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Refinery outages generally have small effects on gasoline prices, GAO says

July 31, 2009

Michael Giberson

A study by the Government Accountability Office has concluded that gasoline refinery outages tend to have small effects on prices.  While large scale weather events like Hurricane Katrina and Rita did result in large prices increases, such events are rare, the study said. In other findings:

  • Typical unplanned refinery outages tended to increase the cost of branded gasoline by 0.2 cents and the cost of unbranded gasoline by 0.5 cents. (During unplanned outages, branded stations, which are more likely to have long term supply contracts, are served first, while unbranded stations, more likely to not have long term supply contracts with a distributor, find themselves having to scramble a bit more for supplies.)
  • Typical planned refinery outages tended to have no effect on prices at all, likely because planned outages are reasonably scheduled during low demand periods, and the refiner can build inventory in advance of the outage to help maintain supply.
  • Price increases were larger for some special blends of gasoline targeted to smaller markets, since there will be fewer alternative sources of supply in the case of an outage.  As before, prices were much higher for unbranded gasoline than for branded gasoline in areas requiring special gasoline blends (for example, in Tucson, AZ, unbranded stations showed price increased of 4.1 cents per gallon, while branded station prices were up 1.3 cents per gallon due to a refinery outage).

The GAO study examined weekly data on wholesale prices for 75 cities, January 2002 through September 2008. During the period there were about 1,000 planned outages and 1,100 unplanned outages.

The GAO also concluded that there were gaps in federal data collection efforts which have limited the Department of Transportation and GAO efforts to analyze petroleum markets and related issues.

(The link above is to the 48-page pdf version of the report. Sometime soon the GAO will post a summary of the report on this webpage.)

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