Tag Archives: proper football

Soccer rules as a market design problem

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Michael Giberson

Hadn’t actually thought of the rules of professional sports leagues as a market design issue before, but Richard Epstein’s column in Forbes proposing rule changes for soccer suggests the idea.  Epstein suggests a couple of changes, drawing on basketball and hockey for inspiration:

  • First, he says goals scored in the run of play be granted two points, like a basketball shot, while penalty kicks remain worth a single point.
  • Second, yellow card and red card infractions should be penalized with time in a hockey-like penalty box.

With soccer the most popular sport in the world, it isn’t immediately obvious that it is in need of reform. Why tamper with all that success?  Yet, Epstein has some good points.  Sometimes a minor foul in the 18-yard box results in a game-winning penalty kick, while a much more serious foul just outside the box leads to a mere free kick.  A red card near the beginning of a match is a much harsher penalty than a red card near the end of the match.

One argument for reform is fairness-based: penalties should be proportionate to the foul committed.  A better line of argument (at least to my way of thinking) comes from market design thinking: what incentives do the rules create, and does the resulting behavior add to or detract from the game?  Consider a striker heading to goal and making slight contact with a defender in the 18-yard box: does the striker take a dive in hopes of gaining the all-but-certain penalty kick goal or shake it off and take a shot in the run of play?  Epstein’s rule change would offer an incentive to the striker to choose athleticism over a theatrical dive, surely an improvement.

Epstein’s proposals may not be the best, but they are worth exploring.  I join him in calling for experiments on the topic!  Let’s see if the rule changes would bring about desirable changes in performance.

Rejoice: another World Cup, another ball controversy

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Michael Giberson

The World Cup is well underway, and with it another controversy over the new ball designed by Adidas for the tournament.  The Wikipedia page on the ball documents some of the complaints, as usual most of them from goalkeepers:

As with the Adidas Fevernova and Adidas Teamgeist at the two previous tournaments, the ball has received pre-tournament criticism, primarily from goalkeepers. Brazil goalkeeper Júlio César compared it to a “supermarket” ball that favored strikers and worked against goalkeepers. Other similar complaints came from Giampaolo Pazzini, Claudio Bravo and Iker Casillas. Italian keeper Gianluigi Buffon said, “it is very sad that a competition so important as the world championship will be played with such an inadequate ball.” whilst Brazilian striker Luís Fabiano called the ball “supernatural”, as it unpredictably changed direction when travelling through the air.

The TeamGeist ball developed for the 2006 tournament was similarly criticized, mostly by goalies.  As it turned out, though, average goals score per match in the 2006 World Cup were down slightly compared to most previous World Cups.

It may be too early in the tournament to jump to conclusions, but across the first 15 games just 24 goals have been scored.  That pace averages to 1.6 goals per game so far, compared to 2.3 during the 2006 tournament, 2.51 in 2002, and the current record low of 2.21 goals per game in the 1990 World Cup tournament.  Again, it may be too early, but it certainly suggests the ball is no nightmare for goalkeepers.

For another data point, the MLS has been using the ball all season with little effect on goal scoring.  (Well, my favored DC United has seen it’s average goals per match drop from last season’s 1.43 to this season’s embarrassing 0.83, but I don’t think the ball is at fault.)  So far this year the MLS has seen an average of 2.5376 goals per match (93 games played), almost exactly equal to last season’s average of 2.5378 goals per match (225 games played).

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The Ajax soccer talent factory

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Michael Giberson

The New York Times Magazine has a feature article on the Ajax soccer development program – they recruit players as young as 7 years old and train them to 19 years if the player is good enough to be kept with the program. Like the development programs of other soccer teams, Ajax begun their program to identify, attract and train young players for the Ajax professional team, long one of the best in Europe. But with more money being made by top players in the English, Spanish, and Italian leagues, Ajax has shifted strategy a bit, aiming to send players to the best teams in the world. The payoff? Millions of dollars to Ajax from transfer fees.

Not every player becomes a star, perhaps just a few will. But as the article points out, the rewards for developing and selling the contract rights for just one superstar can keep the whole operation rolling for a while.

HT to Al Roth and the Market Design blog, who said, “shades of both Harry Potter and Ender’s Game.”

World Cup begins in 5 days.

South Africa hotel price gouging study

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Michael Giberson

International accounting firm Grant Thornton has surveyed 2,500 hotel and other properties in South Africa and concluded that about half of the properties will not be charging a premium rate during the upcoming World Cup.  In some cities, however, a majority of properties were raising rates, sometimes significantly. (Another summary: “Fifty three percent of Durban accommodation establishments were planning to charge more than 50 percent above their peak season rates for the World Cup, a survey into price gouging has found.  This is the second highest in the country after Gauteng with 65 percent, the survey commissioned by South African Tourism has revealed.”)

Tourism, hotel associations, and government officials in South Africa have put significant effort into trying to persuade property owners not to raise rates dramatically.  But demand will be extraordinarily high for a few weeks this summer and the supply available to meet that peak demand will be around for years.  It seems odd to encourage property owners not to adjust prices to reflect the extraordinary demands associated with World Cup.

At least in the South African case the anti-price gouging effort is rooted in persuasion rather than force.  Unlike, say, in several states of the United States, where the state government may impose potentially substantial fines, or in Venezuela or Sri Lanka, where government troops have conducted raids on businesses with prices violating government policy.

It also seems odd that this topic gets discussed under the category of “price gouging.”  Prototypically, price gouging involves sharp price increases on necessary goods during emergencies.  While hotels are frequently targets of price gouging allegations, typically it is when victims of a hurricane or other natural disaster find themselves charged higher-than-usual rates.

No emergency is driving consumers to seek housing in South Africa during the World Cup. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide will watch the World Cup on television, me parochially rooting for CONCACAF teams included. Maybe that explains why I’m not particularly concerned about the fans that are wealthy enough and committed enough to fly into South Africa for a few games. Whatever might be said about the benefits of restraining price increases, it this cases the potential “victims” are incurring the hazard.