Lynne Kiesling
Thanks to Tyler Cowen for this post about betting on physics research. I love the quote he pulled, and that the researcher is willing to go 6-1 on the Higgs particle. I’ve long thought that Robin Hanson was right, and that people putting money on things (i.e., walking the talk) would enhance our ability to focus on things that have higher ex ante probabilities of being correct.
Of course, there are always Type I and Type II error to contend with, so it’s more about getting a better read on the probability distribution than anything else.