Lynne Kiesling
Greg Mankiw has a great example of how to use Bayes Theorem, applied to nomination and election markets for the 2008 Presidential race at Tradesports.
Perhaps if we followed Chris Dillow’s advice and taught gambling at school, we would have a more numerate and probabilistically literate population, so people would be more intelligent in interpreting polls, prediction markets, and results of blood tests. Hey, a girl can dream, can’t she?