Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities

Michael Giberson As mentioned here before, Inkling offers a public play-money prediction market. I stumbled across them a year or so ago, and because I’m interested in market design and prediction markets, I decided to try them out. Partly because playing the Inkling markets amuses me and partly because I started doing well, I’ve continue … More Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage OpportunitiesMore Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities

Economists Seek Safe Harbor for Small Stakes Prediction Markets

Michael Giberson A number of prominent economists have signed on to a statement seeking reform of government policy toward prediction markets. The abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve … More Economists Seek Safe Harbor for Small Stakes Prediction MarketsMore Economists Seek Safe Harbor for Small Stakes Prediction Markets

The Challenge of Retail Electricity Restructuring: Dynamic Pricing and Enabling Technology

Lynne Kiesling Here’s one reason why I’ve been so incommunicado for the past few weeks: Retail Electricity Deregulation: Prospects and Challenges for Dynamic Pricing and Enabling Technologies, a paper for the new Searle Center Annual Review of Regulation at Northwestern University. Here’s a teaser from the introduction: Optimistic expectations from the 1990s restructuring changes have … More The Challenge of Retail Electricity Restructuring: Dynamic Pricing and Enabling TechnologyMore The Challenge of Retail Electricity Restructuring: Dynamic Pricing and Enabling Technology

Is Falls Church the Harry-est Town in America?

Michael Giberson As observed at Freakonomics, my home town of Falls Church, Virginia is (at present) leading Amazon.com’s contest to be the “The Harry-est Town in America.” Freakonomics puts it concisely: Whichever town pre-orders the most copies of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows will receive a $5,000 Amazon gift certificate, to be directed by … More Is Falls Church the Harry-est Town in America?More Is Falls Church the Harry-est Town in America?

“Record High” Gasoline Prices

Lynne Kiesling Here it is, the first week in May, and finally we have the whinging and melodrama that I usually associate with March or April (see, for example, the KP archives from March 2004, with lots of gasoline posts): record high gas prices!. Just two weeks ago, the U.S. average for a gallon of … More “Record High” Gasoline PricesMore “Record High” Gasoline Prices

Snipers, Shills, and Sharks

Michael Giberson I’ve just finished Ken Steiglitz’s book, Snipers, Shills, and Sharks: eBay and Human Behavior. Don’t let the subtitle throw you – the book is neither narrowly limited to eBay nor broadly focused on human behavior. Instead, the book is the best-writted introduction to auction theory I’ve seen. Steiglitz is a Princeton University computer … More Snipers, Shills, and SharksMore Snipers, Shills, and Sharks