I’ve followed up the long post on the NYMEX v. IntercontinentalExchange decision here with a post on Midas Oracle in which I contemplate potential adverse consequences for some prediction markets (or, indeed, anyone publishing market data for which they assert copyright).
While some caveats would emerge in a longer discussion, a well-designed prediction market can provide an accurate, numerically precise characterization of the current expectation about the underlying event.
Question: If you run a prediction market, who owns the right to use your market output?
Prediction markets in the United States may want to consider a recent court decision in a copyright case, that, depending upon the prediction market’s business model, may impinge on its exclusive use of public prices or other market data produced by its systems. Be warned that I am not a lawyer – I don’t even play one on TV. I’ve just read the court decision, and now I’m sort of ‘thinking out loud’ about what it might mean….
You can read the whole thing over at Midas Oracle.