At The Eisenthal Report, market manager David Eisenthal provides an update on the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market that he set up at Inkling:
At various times, Rep. Barry Finegold (D – Andover), Rep. Jamie Eldridge (D – Acton), and Niki Tsongas have all led the field.
As the election approaches, however, the market seems to have settled on a consensus prediction: Niki Tsongas. … [Tsongas] is now priced at $68.50 per share in this market. This means that this market says that Tsongas has a 68.5% chance of winning the primary on Tuesday. In a distant second place is Jamie Eldridge, ….
It seems to this observer that this likely reflects the reality of next Tuesday – Niki Tsongas is likely to be the Democratic nominee in the October 1 special election to fill the congressional seat. We will see soon enough.
In the day and a half since Eisenthal posted, Tsongas has moved to 85.
[Cross posted on Midas Oracle]