At the MasterResource blog, “$0.11/kWh: Why Wind Is More Expensive than Advertised,” a quick summary of my report for the Institute for Energy Research, “Assessing Wind Power Cost Estimates.”
And be sure to notice in the comments on that blog post: remarks from the American Wind Energy Association.
40 years ago, the electric power industry lost the guarantee to cheap energy, which was what enable the development of least costs expansion plans. The uncertainty on fuel prices from there on have made the assumptions obsolete very quickly.
Business as usual average calculations, such as the LCOE, “firming up” only make sense in an industry based on a flawed architecture.
It has been know since 1973 that electricity planning is a wicked problem, from the social viewpoint. There no satisfactory solutions available from planners. But those problems get hidden in most jurisdictions, except in places with economic crisis, like Spain and Dominican Republic.
To address those wicked (systemic) problems, instead of planning, what is needed is go the true institutional markets, with a correctly restructure electric power industry, like the one mentioned in the post Great electricity service ( http://bit.ly/078GMH ).
Instead of anticipating what the future will be, the electric power industry is opened to recurring business model innovations, which let investors compete with generation on a local basis. All of this changes the meaning of, for example, long-term cheap gas contracts.