At Slate, Chris Wilson advances the idea that the best way to win your local NCAA basketball pool is “to look for situations where the national bracket values a team much higher than the objective statistics.” By betting on the undervalued teams you are more likely to come out ahead.
In the past I have explored some related ideas, but since I’m not betting any money this year my approach was much more subjective and impressionistic. In Wilson’s view, this should make me an easy target for sophisticated analysts.
As usual, the most important goal I have is to do better than my wife. We both have Pitt to go all of the way, so I’ll have to win it in the trenches.