The steady sun and clean wind … not!

Michael Giberson

When an essay about ups and downs in the natural gas industry ends suggesting we need energy sources “as steady as the rays of the sun and as clean as the wind on plains” ….  Well let’s just say the weather over the last 24 hours in this part of the plains doesn’t offer reasons to be a believer in steady sun and clean wind. Wind speeds averaged about 26 mph for much of yesterday was blowing significant quantities of dust (speeds ranged from about 10 mph to gusts near 50 mph), and the constant dust reduced significantly the amount of solar energy reaching the surface. This morning we have a 7 mph breeze and clear skies.

Wind gusts yesterday as high as 69 mph are helping to spread at least three large wildfires in the Texas panhandle and southern plains.

(I realize that a dust storm doesn’t actually undermine the point the author was trying to make, but the essay itself seemed to mistake one company’s shift of focus from increasingly cheap natural gas to not-so-cheap crude oil as somehow indicating that consumers shouldn’t believe in natural gas for the long term. That is to say, it seems so obviously off track that I don’t feel a need to get too serious about it.)

NOTE: The image below reports Lubbock, Texas windspeeds in the second panel and solar energy in the fifth panel (but the image will update, so this particular bit of evidence will be gone by the end of today):

Another court dismisses price fixing, price gouging claims against Martha’s Vineyard gasoline retailers

Michael Giberson

The Martha’s Vineyard Times:

A panel of judges sitting in the federal First Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld a lower court ruling that gasoline prices on Martha’s Vineyard have not been illegally inflated by a conspiracy among retailers, according to a report by “The Docket,” the news blog of Massachusetts Lawyers Weekly. The decision was entered a week ago.

Plaintiffs had complained that four of the Vineyard’s nine gas stations entered into a price-fixing conspiracy and engaged in price gouging in the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Chief Judge Sandra Lynch, writing for Judges Bruce M. Selya and Jeffrey R. Howard, held that the defendant gasoline retailers did nothing that violated either the Sherman Antitrust Act or a price-gouging regulation promulgated under the Massachusetts consumer protection statute.

(Link to the decision in William White, et al. v. R. M. Packer Co., et al. by the U.S. Court of Appeals, First District.)

The ruling upholds the decision made a year ago in U.S. District Court. On the price fixing claim, both courts concluded that the plaintiffs’ evidence only suggested the existence of parallel pricing and didn’t show direct evidence of price fixing. The law doesn’t insist firms in the same market compete heavily on price, just that they don’t conspire to restrain trade. On the price gouging claim, the district court found that the price changes observed were “consistent with the normal operation of the market.” The appeals court said plaintiffs “have not shown a ‘gross disparity’ in prices under the state price-gouging rule.”

A year ago I commented:

My general reaction from reading parts of Gollop’s testimony [for the plaintiff] was that it was very basic industrial organization analysis – all comparative price movements and changing margins – and neglected completely the extensive economics literature on retail gasoline pricing. The law likely makes no special distinction for gasoline pricing cases, so the analysis wouldn’t have to address what is known about gasoline prices, but neglecting the literature may have led plaintiff’s to mistake common retail gasoline price patterns as evidence of price fixing.

Indeed the courts made no special use of gasoline pricing literature. But plaintiffs pursued the appeal in a way that attempted to take advantage of the relatively normal phenomena of asymmetric price adjustment in retail gasoline markets. In short, the plaintiffs wanted the court to find retailers were price gouging because they failed to reduce retail prices as fast as wholesale prices were falling. The court didn’t buy it.

Typically in retail gasoline, profit margins are higher when prices are falling and lower when prices are rising. Plaintiffs charged that price gouging took place over a period beginning with Hurricane Katrina and ending three months later on December 1, 2005. Generally speaking: prices rose sharply with Katrina, began dropping, rose again around Hurricane Rita, then fell for the next several weeks. The significant times with high gross margins were, not surprisingly, periods of falling prices.

Both courts struggled a bit with the definition of price gouging, finding little direct guidance in Massachusetts law. But one thing the courts saw pretty clearly: price gouging laws are about unconscionably high prices, and prices can’t become unconscionably high when they are falling. Price gouging law does not require retailers to pass along falling wholesale prices.

NOTE: See my post of last year for links to both the plaintiffs and defendants expert testimony.

Another comment on United States v. Keyspan Corporation

Michael Giberson

“By the Justice Department’s calculations, Keyspan’s anti-competitive actions resulted in it receiving almost $49 million. The settlement submitted by the Justice Department would let Keyspan keep $37 million from its anti-competitive actions. Netting $37 million for anti-competitive conduct is not a penalty, it is not a deterrent, it is a reward.”

“Anything short of a $49 million fine will not deter the next power trader who thinks up another new way around market rules,” he added.

That’s me, quoted in a U.S. Law Week article about United States v. Keyspan: “DOJ Wins Sherman Act Disgorgement, Appears to Loosen Policy Against Remedy.” (Subscription required.)

The article also quotes Harvard Law professor Einer Elhauge, who has written about disgorgement as an antitrust remedy.

Earlier at Knowledge Problem: United States v. KeySpan Corporation antitrust case settles for paltry $12 million.

You think the kids are alright? Well look at this tiny blue pin on my shirt and think again

Michael Giberson

From the press release:

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Mark Ruffalo and other Oscar nominees will wear a blue water droplet pin during Sunday night’s Academy Awards as a way of asking Americans to be stewards of our treasured water supply, which is currently in jeopardy due to extreme drilling and includes natural gas hydro-fracking. The pin is an initiative of WaterDefense.org, a new campaign calling attention to the impacts on drinking water caused by increasingly extreme methods used to extract fossil fuels.

WaterDefense.org’s Oscar initiative follows a recent day in D.C. where Mark Ruffalo and “GASLAND” Director, Josh Fox, met with Congressional members about the issue. “Gasland”, a documentary about natural gas hydro-fracking, is also nominated for an Academy Award for Best Documentary this year. Ruffalo, who’s nominated for Best-Supporting Actor for “The Kids Are Alright”, and other Oscar celebrities, will be wearing their water droplet pins at the Awards gala and other festivities to help raise awareness for the issue. The pin is two-fold in meaning – it represents our prized natural water resources and is also a tear for what’s happened as a result of it not being protected.

I haven’t be able to find an image of the pin online, the website at “WaterDefense.org” wasn’t available when I tried it, but in my imagination a small blue water droplet pin looks a lot like a small blue natural gas flame pin. For me, the pins will have a four-fold meaning: (1) our prized natural water resources, (2) a tear for what’s happened to it, (3) our prized natural gas resources, and (4) a tear for those people with higher energy bills or limited access to heating because of restrictions on resource development.

But I can’t imagine actually watching the Oscar ceremony live, so the pins will have to wait until I read the news online the next morning before they have the four-fold meaning to me.

The Gasland documentary, up for an Oscar in the documentary category, has been the subject of a lot of complaints by industry (more or less summed up as “it’s a pack of lies”) and spirited defense by its director (more or less summed up as “no it isn’t”). Mike Soraghan of Greenwire examined the industry complaints and the filmmaker’s claims to see where the truth is. His conclusion: “The filmmaker and industry have each made errors and have spun some facts to their outer limits.”

To me it looks like a fair examination of the issues (but industry and filmmaker probably wouldn’t agree).

The issue of “fictionalization” arises in both the documentary and Best Picture category. Many of the movies nominated for Best Picture are based on real events, but are fictionalized to various degrees: The Social Network, The Fighter, The King’s Speech and 127 Hours. Questions always arise in such cases about how far the filmmaker can to in bending fact in order to tell a compelling story.

(A local theater is showing five of the ten Best Picture nominees today: The Social Network, The Fighter, The King’s Speech, True Grit, and Black Swan. I’m not sure I can sit through 10+ hours of film in one day, but I’m going to give it a try. Well, almost. I’ve seen True Grit already, so I’ll be able to take a dinner break.)

 

John List’s $10 million crazy idea field experiment in education

Michael Giberson

Bloomberg Markets Magazine has a feature on economist John List and his $10 million research project on education. Along the way we get an introduction to List’s work on field experiments in economics, a splash of lab-based economics back story, and the reaction of education specialists who think List’s project is wholly off target.

List, along with collaborators Steven Levitt and Roland Fryer, has obtained a $10 grant for a program which randomly assigned 3-5 year old students to one of three groups: (1) free all-day preschool, (2) “parenting academy” for the student’s parent or guardian, or (3) a control group with neither intervention. The program intends for follow the students into adulthood in order to assess the long-term effects of the intervention.

List says he doesn’t know much about education theory, so he enlisted specialists to consult on the preschool curriculum. One such consultant, Clancy Blair, a New York University professor of applied psychology, says he was astonished by the size of the project and by how it focuses on financial incentives without looking at such variables as how the parents interact with their children.

“That’s a crazy idea,” says Blair, who studies how young children learn. “It’s not based on any prior research. This isn’t the incremental process of science. It’s ‘I have a crazy idea and I convinced someone to give me $10 million.’”

List says too many decisions in fields from education to business to philanthropy are made without any scientific basis. Without experimenting, you can’t evaluate whether a program is effective, he says.

“We need hundreds of experiments going on at once all over the country,” he says. “Then we can understand what works and what doesn’t.” …

“What educators need to know are what are the best ways to educate kids, and this is trying to short-circuit that,” Blair says. “We have fundamental problems in education, and this is sort of a distraction.”

List says he understands the objections. “If I was in the field, I’d hate me, too,” List says in November while driving to his sons’ indoor baseball practice in one of Chicago’s south suburbs. “There should be skeptics.”

The law on fracking oil and gas wells

Michael Giberson

Looking for a thorough examination of the law with respect to fracking? This article, “American Law and Jurisprudence on Fracing,” appearing in the Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation Journal looks pretty good. (Abstract of the article here; PDF of full article here.)

From the conclusion:

Given the size of the potential reserves made available by fracing, the influence and capital of the producers of natural gas, the money made by the mineral owners in bonus and royalty, and the jobs and tax revenue that fracing make possible, widespread hydraulic fracturing will continue and the hunt for prospective shale oil and gas will proliferate. Some cities and counties—and perhaps even some states—will succeed in preventing fracing through the pressure of citizens’ groups and environment organizations, but too many parties stand to gain too much from this technology for fracing to be entirely stopped.

From a jurisprudential standpoint, the biggest question that states will need to settle, probably through case law, is whether fracing that can be proven to cross property boundary lines and which facilitates draining of an unleased neighboring tract constitutes trespass. Case law in currently limited, but until now, the prevailing attitude seems to be that the rule of capture allows such drainage unless the owner of the drained tract can prove some kind of damages outside of lost ultimate recovery from his tract. Another question is whether fracing that enhances production for one tract, but is detrimental to ultimate recovery for an entire unit, will be found to run afoul of the conservation efforts of state agencies.

The article includes a state-by-state review of developments as well as a discussion of the federal debate. While the EPA continues investigating fracking activity, the article suggests that the “flurry of state and local [regulatory] activity may attenuate the interest of EPA in federal oversight of fracing.”

The authors are Thomas E. Kurth, Michael J. Mazzone, Mary Simmons Mendoza, and Christopher S. Kulander. Yes, they write the word as “fracing.” But give them a break, they published last year. I’m sure they know now all the cool kids spell it “fracking.”

UPS turns to LNG, not CNG, for natural gas fueled long-haul trucks

Michael Giberson

The low cost of natural gas and the high cost of petroleum products like diesel and gasoline have produced a lot of interest in natural gas as a transportation fuel. It is an idea that’s been around for a while and works fine in practice. Most of the interest and effort has gone into using compressed natural gas (CNG). UPS recently announced it was adding 48 trucks to its fleet of 18-wheelers that will run on liquefied natural gas (LNG).

LNG is attractive relative to CNG because the higher energy densities allow a truck to go farther on a full tank of fuel. (Still, LNG has substantially lower energy density than diesel, so fuel tanks will be larger or range will be reduced.)

T. Boone Picken’s energy plan is heavy into natural gas for transportation, and his private investments reflect his interest. His company Clean Energy claims to be the “leading provider of natural gas fuel for transportation in North America.” Not surprisingly, Clean Energy is involved in the UPS LNG effort.

The New York Times Green blog reports “U.P.S. Finds a Substitute for Diesel: Natural Gas, at 260 Degrees Below Zero“:

The final frontier for alternative motor fuels, powering big tractor-trailers, has been crossed.

The alternative is natural gas, but not in the now-familiar form of compressed gas. Instead, a growing number of the biggest trucks are running on liquefied natural gas. Burdened by diesel prices that topped out at over $5 a gallon in 2008 and mindful of the sustained collapse of natural gas prices, trucking companies are expressing new interest in liquefied natural gas for their thirstiest trucks, the over-the-road 18-wheelers.

“It’s the only long-term viable option to diesel,’’ said Michael G. Britt Sr., director of maintenance and engineering at United Parcel Service, which is about to add 48 L.N.G. trucks and would like to deploy many more, if the fueling infrastructure is in place and if truck production volume rises enough to bring down costs. Many other companies are running test fleets….

U.P.S. received $5.5 million for the project from the state of California that was allocated by the federal Energy Department. The company used $4 million to pay for the extra cost of the trucks and funneled $1.5 million to Clean Energy of Seal Beach, Calif., to build a fueling station.

I’m not so ready to declare that “the final frontier for alternative motor fuels … has been crossed,” since the “crossing” was subsidized to the tune of $5.5 million.

The technology doesn’t seem to be new, just the use of LNG in this particular application. Are we – the subsidizing taxpayers – learning anything useful from the project? Will any data collected be publicly available? I’m all in favor of experiments and innovation, but if public monies are supporting the work, then the results should be made available for public review.

Crude Oil prices reacting to the Middle East, North African unrest

Michael Giberson

What’s up with crude oil prices? A few updates from around the web:

And some commentary:

NYMEX Crude Oil in electronic trading

Image links to current NYMEX price data at http://www.cmegroup.com


More on Cushing and the WTI-Brent crude oil price spread

Michael Giberson

James Hamilton explains a bit more about market conditions driving the split between two benchmark crude oil prices, West Texas Intermediate and Brent.  See “Brent-WTI spread“ at EconBrowser.

Hamilton directs his reader to additional detail in a post by Gail the Actuary at the Oil Drum (originally posted as “Why are WTI and Brent Prices so Different?” at Our Finite World.) The post details pipeline, production, and storage issues that are keeping WTI prices below the Brent price.

Previously on KPBye-bye WTI? Local conditions may sink global oil price benchmark.

Neither the Hamilton or the Gail the Actuary post comment directly on the benchmark status of WTI, but the implications of both are that various arbitrage actions eventually will drive the WTI-Brent price spread back into more typical relationships. If that happens in a year or less, I’d guess that there isn’t time for an alternative benchmark to catch on in the press and WTI will remain the public face of crude oil prices in the United States.

Effects of Anti-Price Gouging Legislation on Supply Chain Dynamics

Michael Giberson

Jason Maynard has produced a thesis examining “The Effects of Anti-Price Gouging Legislation on Supply Chain Dynamics“:

Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to model the effects of anti-price gouging (APG) legislation on the costs to businesses during the recovery period of a disaster. A system dynamics model of a business’s replenishment procedures is used to simulate the effects of APG legislation on business performance. Economists have published expansive research on the effects of price ceilings on supply and demand, but there is little research evidence on the operational consequences of price ceiling legislation on business costs. APG legislation increases consumer’s forward buying and shortage gaming after a disaster by removing price incentives to be frugal. Forward buying and shortage gaming are two key drivers of the demand variation and the bullwhip effect, which leads to increased inventory costs, misguided capacity expansion and reduced service levels. These costs have a negative impact on local businesses that are critical to a community’s economic health and recovery from a disaster. The simulation results from this thesis show that APG legislation is not an effective regulatory response to decrease the impact of disasters on affected communities.

If I were going for a sexier title, I would have called this post “The beer game and the bullwhip effect.” But that title is less descriptive unless you know that the beer game “is a common simulation of the dynamic effects of a supply chain” and the bullwhip effect is supply-chain phenomenon in which demand spikes get amplified up through the supply chain.