Economics

Looking for a Good Forecast?

Michael Giberson Philip Tetlock – the expert on political expertise – reviews three books on political forecasting for The National Interest, but the problem of selecting a good forecast equally applies in commerce: Reading these three books, it is easy to feel like a frustrated shopper wandering aimlessly down the forecasting aisle in the supermarket …

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Crabs and Crabbers: “Interests Are Not Always Aligned”

Michael Giberson I laughed at this line in an article in the Washington Post: But one survives by catching the other and selling it to be eaten. So, as economists say, their interests are not always aligned. The article discusses the Maryland state government’s attempt to reduce the number of “limited crab catcher” licenses in …

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The Real Meaning of Al Roth’s Spam Blog Email: Time to Leave the Bargain Bin

Michael Giberson Al Roth, at his Market Design blog, mentions that his site had been flagged as possibly in violation of Blogger terms of service by his blog host’s anti-spam blog software.  He reports that he can still post, but until he gets a review by the Blogger folks he must prove he is probably …

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The End of “Cash for Clunkers”

Michael Giberson News reports indicate that the federal government is winding up “Cash for Clunkers” early next week on the expectation that claims will exhaust the $3 billion committed to the program.   Just noticed this comment by Robert Barro of two weeks back (HT to Paul Walker/Anti-Dismal): The most ludicrous (though, fortunately, small) intervention thus …

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More on Bicycle Prices in Portland…

Michael Giberson …from Robin Goldstein, after he observed “an unexpectedly spirited and … fascinating debate” in response to his earlier post (commented upon here at KP, but also many other places, including Freakonomics). He wrote, “Many have written to corroborate my claim that used bikes are unusually expensive in Portland, while many others have disputed …

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Cash for Clunkers, Economics of

Michael Giberson Christopher Knittel, at UC-Davis, has run some numbers on the “Cash for Clunkers” program and concludes that it is an expensive way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: The Cash for Clunker program aims to stimulate the economy, provide relief for automobile manufacturers and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this research note, I present …

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Does “Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is” Make Betting a Free Speech Issue?

Michael Giberson Miriam Cherry and Robert Rogers explore the interaction of “Prediction Markets and the First Amendment.”  If prediction markets are “expressive,” does that mean that U.S. government actions that constrain prediction market development potentially raise First Amendment issues on free speech grounds? The authors propose a way forward in which courts, at least until …

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