Knowledge Problem

November 13, 2009

You can’t always get what you want: Or, why oil production declines with rock and roll

Filed under: Music — Tags: — Michael Giberson @ 1:57 pm

Michael Giberson

From the “too good not to share” category: “The Hubbert Peak Theory of Rock, or, Why We’re All Out of Good Songs,” from the pop culture scrutineers at Overthinking It.

A few years ago, Rolling Stone magazine added fuel to the music snobbery fire with its “500 Greatest Songs of All Time” list.  Anyone casually paging through the list would notice that the bulk of the list was comprised of songs from the 60’s and 70’s, just like the music snobs always say.

I, however, wasn’t content with the casual analysis.  So I punched the list into Excel, crunched some numbers, and found an interesting parallel between the decline of rock music quality and, of all things, the decline in US oil discovery and production:

Oil production and quality rock and roll

(Sources: Rolling Stone Magazine, US Department of Energy)

Looks like a correlation to me. More analysis offered at the link.

(HT to Tom Fowler at NewsWatch: Energy.)

New meters enabling new rate designs by competitive power suppliers in Texas

Filed under: Electricity, Energy markets — Tags: , — Michael Giberson @ 9:46 am

Michael Giberson

Many companies offer retail electric power contracts in the competitive retail portions of Texas, but for a long time the contracts have been kind of, you know, boring: either fixed rate or variable, if fixed then for 1 or 2 years. Renewable content offerings provided a little color, ranging up to 100 percent. Toss in some prepay options and differences on early termination fees, and that about covers the range of options.

Now smart meters, being installed in both the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas, are enabling more diverse rate designs. Elizabeth Souder at Texas Energy and Environment mentioned TXU Energy and Reliant had begun offering time-of-use rates. Souder reports that for the Oncor distribution area (D-FW area):

TXU charges 8.9 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity used off peak. Power used on peak, 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. from May to October, costrs 24.3 cents.

TXU time-of-use customers also get a free thermostat that shows how much power they are using. Customers may decline the thermostat and get a $75 Visa gift card instead.

Tom Fowler of NewsWatch: Energy reports that for the CenterPoint Energy distribution area:

In Houston, Reliant has three levels April thru October: 11.6 cents off-peak, 13.4 cents standard and 15.6 cents on-peak. November thru March it’s 11.6 cents off-peak and 13.4 cents.

These rates are just some of the first offerings to take advantage of the new metering capabilities, more and probably better offerings to come.

Since May, Green Mountain Energy has been offering a “Renewable Rewards” program, a privately offered net metering rate for residential customers with distributed generation capability. Participation requires a meter capable of two-way metering (are the standard “smart meters” being installed capable?) and of course there are limits. But the first 500 kwh per month of excess energy is bought back at the customer’s full retail price, and any additional energy is bought at 50 percent of retail.

And unlike net metering elsewhere, imposed on regulated utilities and funded via cross subsidies from other ratepayers, participation in Renewable Rewards is voluntary; the Green Mountain Energy program is a privately-provided competitive offering.

Electricity and water-understand the relationship that is causing problems

Filed under: Electricity, Environmental policy — Tags: , , — Michael Giberson @ 6:42 am

Michael Giberson

In parts of the United States (and worldwide), limited availability of water is limiting the ability to build new power plants. While the water-energy connection has been of interest for some time, particularly in more arid areas, the issue has seemed to be more in the news of late. (I.e., this news article on the water requirements of two proposed solar thermal power plants in California.)

John V. Anderson explains the details of the relationship that is causing problems in “Electricity and Water– Can We Have Both?

November 12, 2009

Tres Amigas presentation

Filed under: Electricity, Energy markets — Tags: — Michael Giberson @ 6:27 pm

Michael Giberson

Tres Amigas CEO Phil Harris recently gave a presentation about the proposed project to interconnect the Eastern, Western and Texas grids to folks at the Electric Power Research Institute:

Cover page - Tres Amigas presentation - 2009 November

Tres Amigas LLC presentation to EPRI - 2009 November 5

ADDED: Technology Review, “Superconductors to Wire a Smarter Grid,” explains the project with a little more description of the role played by superconducting technology than offered in earlier newspaper accounts (or blog posts).

The key to Arizona’s energy future

Filed under: Electricity, Energy markets — Tags: , — Michael Giberson @ 10:16 am

Michael Giberson

Via the Goldwater Institute in Arizona, this announcement of an event happening today, November 12 in Phoenix:

Today three experts on electricity restructuring will be at the state Capital to talk about how Arizona could begin a restructuring process and how restructuring could encourage the use of more renewable energy. The discussion is open to the public and we encourage you to join us:

Date:         Thursday, November 12, 2009
Time:        10:00 a.m.-11:30 a.m.
Location:  Arizona State House of Representatives, Hearing Room 3, 1700 W. Washington, Phoenix

See also this Goldwater Institute-sponsored report, “Opening the Grid: How to Recharge Arizona’s Electricity System for the 21st Century,” which we’ve lauded here before as “outstanding in nearly every way.”

Designing federal programs that work

Filed under: Energy markets, Politics, Regulation — Tags: — Michael Giberson @ 10:03 am

Michael Giberson

From Government Executive:

As Washington considers an overhaul of the nation’s health care system affecting roughly one-seventh of our economy, a critical question arises: How effective are we at crafting legislation that can be implemented? To answer this question, we partnered with Government Executive in 2008 to survey members of the Senior Executive Service….

It turns out if you want to get federal executives angry, ask them what they think of the legislative design process. Their responses can be scathing: “Policy design at the federal level is pathetic.” “Policy design too often is done without consideration of implementation challenges.” The consequences of poor design can be severe.

The prime example of a legislative program design disaster is the original California power market design developed in substantial detail by the state’s legislature.  We get the “cartoon version” of what went wrong in California (“The short answer is energy companies like Enron exploited design flaws in the legislation….”*).

The principles advocated are not bad:

  • Think Design, Not Legislation
  • Involve Implementers
  • Evaluate Workability
  • Probe for Weaknesses

But, essentially, these principles invite politicians to reflect upon the practical limits of their ability to change the world, at the same time they are trying to change the world. How practical is it to ask legislators to be practical?  Other the other hand, making suggestions to legislators must work to some degree or another, because lots of organizations spend billions of dollars in the aggregate to explain to legislators just how, practically speaking, laws should be written.  Why not add program implementation lobbyists to the mix?

If we take legislators out of the picture, however, and think about market design outside of the legislative context, then the four principles can be helpful. Government Executive observes, “If someone isn’t looking for the weaknesses during the design phase, rest assured people will be finding weaknesses in the policy after it is launched – with far more serious consequences.”

It is a sort of mantra (i.e., part of the sales pitch) among applied market design specialists that you can pay a little to test designs in the lab, or end up paying much more to test designs in the real world.  One of the benefits of doing applied market design analysis in an economics lab is that is forces the analyst to answer a lot of useful questions about “how this project is actually going to work” that committee discussions, white papers, and theorists rarely consider (until after an implementation goes badly wrong).

*ASIDE: I think Enron gets mentioned in contexts like this due to its bankruptcy for unrelated reasons and because of a few colorful remarks by traders caught on tape, and the unfortunate and mostly misunderstood law firm memo, and the …; well the list is long, but other companies are as deserving of mention as Enron.  The other companies managed to stay out of the headlines, and Enron was too busy falling apart to fight a post-California market meltdown PR battle.

Wholesale power markets for beginners – The New Hampshire view

Filed under: Electricity, Energy markets — Tags: , — Michael Giberson @ 9:11 am

Michael Giberson

Granite Viewpoint provides an excellent brief introduction to wholesale power markets in New England, with a few New Hampshire specific details thrown in. (First line: “It’s 9:00 am, do you know what the bulk price is for electricity in New Hampshire?”)  At this introductory level the story told about ISO-NE is approximately the same within each of the regional power markets integrated into power systems operations — PJM, New York ISO, Midwest ISO, California ISO; and the Southwest Power Pool and ERCOT are moving toward the arrangements described.

Want more? The New York ISO is “offering opportunities for individuals to learn more about wholesale electricity markets and power system operations in New York.”  For $300 you can get a one-day overview of NYISO operations. (Want still more? A four-day course is also available.)

And speaking of power markets for beginnings, I’ve been meaning to mention the launch of market trials for the Florida Cost Based Broker System.  (Actually, the FCBBS is not a “power market for beginners,” it is a full-scale wholesale power trading platform for professionals.  Google doesn’t readily find me a clear description of the system, but with a little looking I’m sure something will turn up.)

November 11, 2009

Blackouts in Brazil: Two views

Filed under: Electricity — Tags: , , — Michael Giberson @ 3:25 pm

Michael Giberson

Without additional comment, I present two articles online at Transmission and Distribution World, both addressing Brazil and blackouts:

Tres Amigas transmission link overview at Alt Energy Stocks

Filed under: Electricity, Energy markets — Tags: , , , — Michael Giberson @ 9:42 am

Michael Giberson

I put together an overview of the Tres Amigas LLC proposal for Alt Energy Stocks, published today: “Tres Amigas Proposes Three-way Transmission Link.”  (Tres Amigas proposes to build a three-way transmission link between the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection, and the Texas Interconnection.)

The only company mentioned in the summary with a stock trading somewhere is AMSC.  The Tres Amigas project has been promoted as aiding the development of renewable power sources.  The combination apparently qualifies the discussion for posting at Alt Energy Stocks.  (Thanks Tom.)

The project should facilitate trade (of all kinds of power) among the three areas, reducing price volatility and lowering average wholesale prices overall.  Since it is proposed as a merchant transmission facility, without electric ratepayer money at risk, there is almost no downside to consumers from the project.

NOTE: Link to related Tres Amigas posts at Knowledge Problem.

November 10, 2009

Buy American sounds great—until you think about it

Filed under: Economics — Tags: — Michael Giberson @ 11:33 am

Michael Giberson

“Buy American sounds great—until you think about it,” said Marc Gunther in “Buy American: Bad for America.”

(Gunther begins by writing: “Congress should have known better,” but I think the truth is that Congress did know better.  It just didn’t matter.)

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